Friday, 8 November 2024

Climate modeling fraud

"The data does not matter... We're not basing our recommendations on the data; we're basing them on the climate models."
- Professor Chris K. Folland; former IPCC lead author, UK Met Office Head of Climate Variability, later Climate Variability and Forecasting, and a modeling expert.

The scientific climate fraud is:

  1. Proof we are right rests on our expertise: that we are better scientists than our critics.
  2. We know so much about climate that we can write it as a computer program.
  3. Our climate programs can then predict missing data for temperatures
  4. This (above) explains why we're so emphatic that you agree on our predictions:
    "you must believe in climate change" - we say. When you agree with us (them), then you condone our status as experts - which is why we have jobs as climate scientists in the first place. Our expert staus then enables us to make up reality to suit our bias, assumptions, and ideology.

Ultimately, everything rests on this basic greenhouse gas model Folland believed in. It is an incompetent model. It only survived because though police censor better models - such a Uli Weber's video | document | Uli Weber (German/web) | Uli Weber (German/pdf) | Lunar Diviner Experiment
Any sufficiently crappy research is indistinguishable from fraud -- Andrew Gelman

"Scientific" ideology which enables this pseudoscience became so widespread that it took over physics.

Sunday, 13 October 2024

Democracy

"Democracy" has to be one of the most over-used and badly termed words ever invented.

democracy /dĭ-mŏk′rə-sē/

Government by the people, exercised either directly or through elected representatives. A political or social unit that has such a government. The common people, considered as the primary source of political power.
origin: From ancient Greek: dēmokratía, dēmos 'people' and kratos 'rule'). Democracy means people rule, or rule by the people. Deliberative democracy | Direct democracy |

I fact I once read a book on this; by a Marxist (oops - my mistake). It seems plausible to me, until I read a reviews to the book I'd just read which told me that was a load of BS - as Ancient Greek democracy was nowt like that and had been a total failure.

A peculiar thing about "democracy" is so many non-democratic forms of government call themselves democratic! As it everyone wants to be thought of as democratic, but barely anyone wants to be democratic. For example: North Korea, the country of is officially the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). Is it really democratic (LOL)? This should be a massive concern Marxists because real democracy is a Marxist invention. Wikipedia - the notoriously undemocratic wiki site has a "Democracy Ranking" page. The Democracy Ranking is an index compiled by the Association for Development and Advancement of the Democracy Award, an Austria-based non-partisan organization. Each country is given an index and Norway (87.1) is top, with Switzerland (86.7) second. South Korea has an index = 70. North Korea isn't even in the rankings. The United States (self-styled home of democracy) limps in at 16th, below, even the United Kingdowm (my home), at 14th.

What do the common people have to say about democracy, where will they answer my questions?

I did some basic searches but could find very few common people disucussing democracy. For example: most websites with democracy in the url don't seem to have a public forum democracy forums does. But it's US dominated, and its logo is American too. It's going to be all about the USA, which, as previously noted, limps in at 16th in the democracy rankings. "The World Forum for Democracy" will take place at the Council of Europe, Strasbourg (France)". I think there's one each year. It seems to be an EU thing. open democracy, doesn't even seem to have a forum The International Democracy Forum aims to promote direct democray and it is an off-shoot of democracy-international.

It seems to me, a search to find the meaning of democracy should be interested in: what we know about it - books the ideal form in which it might take. AKA better democracy. There seem to be a few contenders here:

  • direct democracy,
  • real democracy,
  • representative democracy
  • voting
  • extending the vote
  • Democracy

    "Democracy" has to be one of the most over-used and badly termed words ever invented.

    democracy /dĭ-mŏk′rə-sē/

    Government by the people, exercised either directly or through elected representatives. A political or social unit that has such a government. The common people, considered as the primary source of political power.

    origin: From ancient Greek: dēmokratía, dēmos 'people' and kratos 'rule'). Democracy mean people rule, or rule by the people.

    I fact I once read a book on this; by a Marxist (oops - my mistake). It seems plausible to me, until I read a reviews to the book I'd just read which told me that was a load of BS - as Ancient Greek democracy was nowt like that and had been a total failure.

    A peculiar thing about "democracy" is so many non-democratic forms of government call themselves democratic! As it everyone wants to be thought of as democratic, but barely anyone wants to be democratic. For example: North Korea, the country of is officially the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). Is it really democratic (LOL)? This should be a massive concern Marxists because real democracy is a Marxist invention. Wikipedia - the notoriously undemocratic wiki site has a "Democracy Ranking" page. The Democracy Ranking is an index compiled by the Association for Development and Advancement of the Democracy Award, an Austria-based non-partisan organization. Each country is given an index and Norway (87.1) is top, with Switzerland (86.7) second. South Korea has an index = 70. North Korea isn't even in the rankings. The United States (self-styled home of democracy) limps in at 16th, below, even the United Kingdowm (my home), at 14th.

    What do the common people have to say about democracy, where will they answer my questions?

    I did some basic searches but could find very few common people disucussing democracy. For example: most websites with democracy in the url don't seem to have a public forum democracy forums does. But it's US dominated, and its logo is American too. It's going to be all about the USA, which, as previously noted, limps in at 16th in the democracy rankings. "The World Forum for Democracy" will take place at the Council of Europe, Strasbourg (France)". I think there's one each year. It seems to be an EU thing. open democracy, doesn't even seem to have a forum The International Democracy Forum aims to promote direct democray and it is an off-shoot of democracy-international.

    It seems to me, a search to find the meaning of democracy should be interested in: what we know about it - books the ideal form in which it might take. AKA better democracy. There seem to be a few contenders here:

  • direct democracy,
  • real democracy,
  • representative democracy
  • voting
  • extending the vote
  • Tuesday, 24 September 2024

    Pirani gauge. Answer to Critics.

    For me, the only valid criticism of Tom Shula's interviewis that a Pirani gauge filament typically has low emissivity; ε ~ 0.05. But earth has an emissivity close to 1. Emissivity: ε ~ 0.95 (on average).

    In his original presentation, Tom provided a chart with 100 mW power loss at 760 Torr (1 atmosphere). labeled with sp→(for surface pressure). The chart also showed a power loss due to radiation of just below 0.4 mW (at 0.001 Torr and less). That is the red horizontal line labeled: COMBINED RADIATIVE AND END LOSSES

    Assume: with a Pirani filament of ε = 0.05, the power loss associated with IR emission = 0.4 mW. Multiply both power and emissivity by 19. 19 x 0.4 = 7.6. It's perfectly legitimate to multiply like this because emissivity is a simple scalar multiplier in the Stefan-Boltzmann Law.

    So we can expect a Pirani filament of ε = 0.95 has a power loss associated with IR emission = 7.6 mW; and that this will be seen at low vacuum ≤ 0.001 Torr. [Note 0.001 = 1E-03 in the diagram]. Where the red line and green curve meet horizontally. This is the pressure where all power loss is associated with COMBINED RADIATIVE AND END LOSSES, and we assume the end losses are negligible.

    Had we used a Pirani gauge with a filament, ε = 0.95 the we expect a base radiative emission of 7.6mW. This would give a similar chart to that above but the red horizontal line would pass through 7.6mW on the vertical axis, and the green curve would still meet the red line at 1E-03 = 0.001 Torr.

    So:
      total power loss at 1 atmosphere (760 Torr) is 100 mW.
      power loss due to radiation is 7.6 mW

    This estimate gives a radiative heat loss = 7.6% which is still far less than the 79% climate catastrophe modelers give us; although still 19 times what Tom originally estimated. It still falsifies the greenhouse effect; but less dramatically.

    We can, in fact, use a Pirani gauge with a high emissivity filament (such as an oxidized alloy of nickel; 80Ni:20Cr, ε = 0.9, or 20Ni:25Cr:55Fe alloy, ε = 0.90 to 0.97 ). It just so happens that oxidized NiChrome wire is available. But we'll need to calibrate it for ourselves. We'd need to make our own chart of power used versus gas pressure. Or, at the very least, to run the experiment twice - at atmospheric surface pressure ( ~ 760 Torr), and at high vacuum of, say, 0.001 Torr (or less). At such low pressure ALL power loss is assumed to be due to IR emitted.

    Or, provided we know the precise emissivity of our Pirani gauge filament, we can just scale it as I did above.

    Tuesday, 10 September 2024

    Plagiarism

    These are passages DiAngelo and Gay are accused of plagiarizing.

    DiAngelo (her PhD):

    Gay:

    Projection

    Psychological projection

    is the process of displacing one's feelings onto a different person, animal, or object. The term is most commonly used to describe defensive projection — attributing one's own unacceptable urges to another.

    More generally projection is the basis of empathy by the projection of personal experiences to understand someone else's subjective world.

    Empathy

    = understanding another person’s experience by imagining oneself in that other person’s situation. It depends on projection; which is generally an unconscious mechanism = when we do it, we're unaware we're doing it.

    So our ability to project is key to healthy minds; in that it's the basis for empathy. But projection can also go bad, in more than one way, for example:

    Projection Gone bad
    1. Psychopaths don't seem to develop empathy. They project others to be like them = self serving; and consider empathy to be merely suicidal!
    2. Defensive projection. We displace our unacceptable urges onto a different person, animal, or object.
    3. Woke is due to empathy running amok = suicidal empathy. The basis is a notion that if everyone had infinite empathy we'd be in Utopia!
    Suicidal Empathy
    1. In a borderless world we'd be free to travel anywhere. Poverty would be abolished.
    2. In a net zero world all energy would be renewable, and 'free' because it's running off the sun and wind (which is 'free').
    3. In a sexually liberated world everyone is free to love anyone else; and be loved in return.

    Notice how free is the operative word for 1 - 3 above! Always - the seductive language!

    Luxury Beliefs

    None of these (utopian) dreams: net zero (carbon) energy, borderless worlds, communism, infinite sexual liberation, ..., are practical. They're senseless. But the woke, project the lack of such impossible utopias as the cause for all malady! Therefore the norms - you and I - are the cause for their missing Utopia! Because we believe in reality, not in dreams! The utopian dreams are impossible to live - so can only be held as luxury beliefs.

    When they can, they'll try to force their utopias onto us with actual laws. Yet because the utopias are impossible there are no, actual woke people. Their impossible utopian dreams are really luxury beliefs. Practically no one attempts to live luxury beliefs. Luxury beliefs = impossible utopias - are another kind of projection gone bad. Why have luxury beliefs when they're impossible dreams? Because luxury beliefs are status beleifs; and the claim to a higher moral standard than others is moral grandstanding; which most of us do.

    Friday, 30 August 2024

    The Pathocracy

    My Comment. The desciption of the 'communications class' here by Alex Phillips - of those who enable the elite - describes the mentality of people

    who enable pathocracy
    . It doesn't so much describe The Pathocracy itself.

    Tulsi Gabbard gives a much better description of those at the top of the pathocracy.

    Andrew Gold:

    56:14 I think they want to believe that because "everyone's racist".

    Alex Phillips:

    56:20 Do you know what I don't understand with our political classes: the media class. The communications class, as I call them, whether it's marketing advertising, PR, journalism, the Arts. I think in order to get where they are in those particular industries. This is spreading out to most Industries now. In order to get where they are they've had to follow taboos and conventions that change all the time to climb up that greasy pole. And in doing so they've had to sort of be gaslit and gaslight. I think a lot of these people have done it to such an extent that they actually can't see anymore. They don't know. When you try speaking to these people and say but: "hold on, you know, this is how other people see things. This is how the working class might see things. This is the reality of the situation. Look there are Muslim militias. Here's some video evidence."

    57:10 They can't see it. They've almost disabled themselves. Somehow they've brainwashed themself. I don't think people like Keir Starmer are sitting there, going: "Ha ha, I'm going to really mess this country up even more by failing to understand the plight of the working classes". I think somehow he is absolutely convinced of what he's saying. And this is the case with so many people out there. They're convinced of these things. They're convinced that there is a huge amount of injustice, and that white people are terrible, and that minorities are all victims, and you know these sort of broad brushstroke unnuanced generalizations that sort of adhere to some neo-religious moral hierarchy that we've all supposed to have learned overnight and imbued overnight. They believe in it so much they cannot see beyond it. They're staggered if you ever put real information in front of their eyes like the Cass Report on puberty blockers. I mean "Wow, science". All of a sudden we can see that we shouldn't be giving experimental medicine to children who are being brainwashed by things on social media. To me, that's common sense. Yet, it's amazing quite how many professionals just couldn't see it and I don't think it's that they didn't want to see it. They just can't. They've gone too far down the rabbit hole somehow. Yes.

    Monday, 26 August 2024

    Microplastics

    A short, quick, debunk of Guardian scaremongering over microplastics, written by New Lede.

    1. Plastics are macro-molecules which are NOT digested. So even were one to eat it, it'd pass throught the gut undigested, and out the other end.
    2. Microplastics cannot be a threat because there are no mechanisms to get them into human "lungs, placentas, reproductive organs, livers, kidneys, knee and elbow joints, blood vessels and bone marrow" - where The Guardian imply they threaten us.
    3. Fake health threats
      • obscure actual health issues,
      • needlessly scare people to makes us irrational, and
      • misdirects our resources and attention away from actual health issues.
    4. If the claims came from empirical studies then what were those studies? Especially any studies which claim microplastics are present inside people, and are evidentially harmful. The Guardian will never tell you.
    5. One of the scientists quoted did:
      • not report any microplastics inside people
      • no toxicology studies
    6. There are no toxicology studies reported in this inquiry. No study shows commonly used plastics to be harmful. In reality, harmful plastics would be instantly banned.
    7. Instead of actual toxicology studies, the scientist quoted by The Guardian claim hypothetical harms from microplatics. It seems to me they want to make us paranoid, and to redirect our attention away from the real health issues to hypothetical ones. They could make people prey to demagogues.

      Maybe they believe what they write? I don't know one way nor the other since they will rationally debate with no one. It's typical of fanatical & primitivist environmental activism we've had from the Guardian for many decades. It's cultish.

    Consequentialism

    Why is it?:

    "Most of the evil in this world is done by people with good intentions."
    — T.S. Eliot

    Seems counter intuitive. Surely most of the evil in this world is done by evil people: psychopaths and ASPD-types. Not really. Psychopaths get caught out quickly. ASPD-types, like the rest of us, can't see that they're harming other people. To do real evil one must enlist the support of people who believe they're doing good. For those cursed with consequentialist (utilitarian) morality: "ends justify the means", always. Today, good people are often consequentialist in their ethical beliefs. Consequentialism is the default morality of socialists. Indeed almost all socialism postdates the invention of consequentialism, as a philosophy, by Jermeny Bentham: Utilitarianism. Consequentialism is the natural philosophy of atheists. It just says do the most good for the greatest number of people. It does not say anything about consulting them, nor about checking that good was actually done.

    Note: "An Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation", by Jeremy Bentham. Was published in 1789. Just in time for the French Revolution.

    Monday, 19 August 2024

    Propaganda

    ☄️Key Rules of Propaganda:

    1. Simplicity: Messages should be simple and easy to understand. Complex ideas are reduced to basic slogans or images.
    2. Repetition: Repeating a message frequently helps it stick in the minds of the audience.
    3. Emotional Appeal: Propaganda often targets emotions rather than intellect, using fear, anger, pride, or hope to influence opinions and actions.
    4. Us vs. Them: Creating a clear distinction between ‘us’ (the in-group) and ‘them’ (the out-group) to foster unity within a group and demonize outsiders.
    5. Selective Truth: Presenting only those facts and information that support the desired narrative, while ignoring or dismissing contrary evidence.
    6. Loaded Language: Using words and phrases with strong connotations to invoke an emotional response and sway opinion.
    7. Scapegoating: Blaming a person or group for problems, thereby diverting attention from other issues.
    8. Appeal to Authority: Leveraging respected figures or experts to support a position, regardless of their actual expertise on the subject matter.
    9. Bandwagon: Suggesting that everyone else is doing it, so you should too.
    10. Card Stacking: Presenting information in a way that only highlights the positive aspects of an argument while suppressing any negative aspects.

    ☄️Techniques of Propaganda:

    1. Name-Calling: Attaching negative labels to opponents to discredit them.
    2. Glittering Generalities: Using vague, positive phrases that appeal to values but lack substantive information.
    3. Transfer: Associating the authority or prestige of something respected (like the flag or a patriotic symbol) with something the propagandist wants to promote.
    4. Testimonial: Using endorsements from celebrities or satisfied customers to promote a product or idea.
    5. Plain Folks: Convincing the audience that the propagandist’s ideas are “of the people” and align with common values and beliefs.
    6. Fear: Warning that disaster will result if people do not follow a particular course of action.
    7. Bandwagon: Encouraging the audience to follow the crowd or join in because “everyone else is doing it.”
    8. Logical Fallacies: Using flawed reasoning to construct an argument that may seem logical but is actually invalid.
    9. Euphemisms: Using mild or vague terms to make unpleasant realities more palatable.
    10. Exaggeration/Hyperbole: Making something seem much better or worse than it actually is to influence perception.

    Saturday, 27 July 2024

    Green activism - all activism - can often be Covert narcissism

    When activism is not covert narcissism, it can be the worse: dark triad.

    Typical traits of covert narcissists are:

    • An over-inflated sense of self-importance.
    • Lack of empathy.
    • A need for excessive admiration.
    • Sense of entitlement.
    • Surrounding yourself with superficial relationships.
    • Taking advantage of others for personal gain.
    • Resistance to change.
    • Hyper-focusing on fantasies of grandeur.

    Friday, 3 May 2024

    AGW CO2 somehow knows it's special!

    Tuesday, 26 March 2024

    There's no Greenhouse Effect

    If an atmospheric greenhouse effect existed for CO₂, it will be possible to measure the ‘back-radiation’. It will show up in both the thermal conductivity (λ) and isochoric thermal diffusivity (aᵥ) properties. Scientists will then be able to calculate it precisely using either or both these 2 physical properties of CO₂. But
    Q: why do climate scientists not measure it that way; despite billions of dollars in funding lavished on them?
    Q: Would attempting to measure it prove them wrong?

    amount present in atmosphere ( vol.)
    formula ppm relative
    to CO₂
    λ (25 C),
    [ W / m K]
    aᵥ
    [ m² / s ]
    Nitrogen N₂ 780900 1855 0.0259 3.038 × 10⁻⁵
    Oxygen O₂ 209400 497 0.0262 3.040 × 10⁻⁵
    Argon Ar 9300 22 0.0178 3.586 × 10⁻⁵
    Carbon dioxide CO₂ 421 1 0.0167 1.427 × 10⁻⁵
    λ :
    thermal conductivity, determines how much heat per time unit and temperature difference flows in a medium;
    aᵥ :
    isochoric thermal diffusivity, determines how rapidly a temperature change spreads, expressed as area per time unit

    Source:

    Falsification Of The Atmospheric CO₂ Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame Of Physics, version 4;
    Gerhard Gerlich & Ralf D. Tscheuschner, 2009,
    arXiv:0707.1161 abstract, pdf

    Michal E Mann (Climate scientist)

    I have to take these tweets on trust, since I'm blocked from following him. But Michael E. Mann is a famous, and iconic, climate scientist. A true darling of the Left, academic, establishment. His honourary degrees and awards outnumber my academic qualifications. His Wikipedia entry, shows only a fraction of awards actually doled out to him.

    Dispite (me) being a relative imbecile, due to the weight of awards Mann has, compared to mine, I state, with certainty, that carbon dioxide, cyanide and arsenic are 3 very different substances, which behave in no way like CO2. With water, Carbon dioxide, CO2, is the basis for life on earth; Cyanide and arsenic are toxic poisons.

    Friday, 15 March 2024

    Can 'Street Epistemology' cure motivated reasoning?

    Why do climate doomers double down aggresively when presented with contra-evidence?


    Mental Illness

    It's evidently mental illness!; we just can't say what kind yet. My instinct says that - based on my experience of interacting with these fanatics. "Fanatics", is just what they appear to me. We give them our best, most compelling, empirical evidence. They don't simply ignore it; they're actually offended that we think about the issues but didn't come to their conclusion! I was so set on this explanation that I coined the term 'nihilistic personality disorder' for climate doomers! But, realistically, empirical pychological research doesn't favour my idea! Perhaps they suffer from fear instead? Possibly, as there is a lot of fear-oriented propaganda directed against fossil fuels.

    Fear

    1. Fear is a survival response.
    2. Although fear is first experienced in our mind, it triggers a strong physical reaction in our body. As soon as we recognize fear, our amygdala (a small organ in the middle of our brain) alerts the nervous system, which then sets our body’s fear response into motion. Stress hormones such as cortisol and adrenaline are released. Our blood pressure and heart rate increase. We breath faster. Blood flows change — blood actually flows away from our heart and into your limbs, making it easier for us to throw punches, or run for our life. Our body is preparing for fight-or-flight.
    3. As our amygdala senses fear, our cerebral cortex (the reasoning and judgment part of bour brain) is impaired — making it hard to make good decisions or think clearly. We see the results of this in: shouting, screaming, throwing our hands up, wanting to punch something. We want to act - not to think.
    4. We cannot override fear. For example, even when we know there's no threat we can't rationalize that the apparent threat isn't real.

    Yet, although propaganda and groupthink can condition people into fear against fossil fuel, I don't see how presenting a person with an argument against wind-turbines or solar power should also condition this same dogmatism we see, not only from activists, but also from well-educated academics.

    'Street Epistemology' to the rescue?

    In recent years, a group of psychologists, studied how we change our minds. They found that group ideas (we often see in activists) are particularly hard to change. When groupthink ideas are poo-pooed we don't consider the arguments in the same light they're presented to us. We defend those ideas; our minds get to work to explain to us why we're right and they're wrong! The more educated the person is - the more explanations they will evoke to explain why they're right. Philosopher Peter Boghassian, writes and studies this. "How to Have Impossible Conversations: A Very Practical Guide". Peter B developed a technique he calls street epistemology, to have rational discussions on sensitive and often, firmly held beliefs. Essentially Peter B:

    1. States a clear simple proposition.
    2. Asks a person whether they agree or disagree,
    3. and how firmly. He asks them to stand on a scale indicating the certainty of their position
    4. This exercise is best done with two subjects who disagree with each other.
    5. He asks each subject to guess why the other person holds their belief
    6. Then asks each subject to explain, as best they can, why
    7. Finally Peter B asks the question to each: "what would take, in terms of evidence, for each subject to move one step, on the scale, to a less certain position.

    This technique helps us to clarify what and why (in terms of evidence or logic) we believe things. Several you-tube videos show this method in action.

    Tuesday, 12 March 2024

    Limits to Growth: Julian Simon and Victory Into Defeat


    In Progress

    Originally limits to growth were proposed as real things: such as available agricultural land, and available mineral and fossil fuel reserves. Germany, largely began the second world was to conquer territory in Ukraine, so enabling a German Empire to rival the USA in prosperity. The Nazis had genuine, and practical, Malthusian obsessions here. Thomas Malthus' orginal idea began in 1798. It's very simple. Human population grows Obsessions over limits returned in a big way in the 1960s with Paul Ehrlich's Population Bomb (1968), and Limits to Growth (1972, by the Club of Rome). Economist took a bet out with Ehrlich. Simon bet that no matter the scarce resource, that resource would be more plentiful in future, rather than less! Julian Simon won the bet. Most environmentalists now conceed to Julian Simon. For example, Bill McKibben, founder of 350.org, poo-poos limits to growth ideas. This gives modern enviros a pseudo-progressivism. The Switch Beginning in the 1980s, the response of eco-doomers to Julian Simon was to switch the limits to imaginary ones - such as "pollution" (which often isn't a limit).

    What if a small group of world leaders were to conclude that the principal risk to the Earth comes from the actions of the rich countries? And if the world is to survive, those rich countries would have to sign an agreement reducing their impact on the environment. Will they do it? The group's conclusion is 'no'. The rich countries won't do it. They won't change. So, in order to save the planet, the group decides: Isn't the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn't it our responsibility to bring that about?
    - Maurice Strong
    In searching for a common enemy against whom we can unite, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages famine and the like, would fit the bill. In their totality and their interaction these phenomena do constitute a common threat which must be confronted by everyone together. But in designating these dangers as the enemy, we fall into the trap, which we have already warned readers about, namely mistaking symptoms for causes. All these dangers are caused by human intervention in natural processes, and it is only through changed attitudes and behaviour that they can be overcome. The real enemy then is humanity itself.
    - Alexander King and Bertrand Schneider, Report for the Club, The First Global Revolution Constipating Energy
    Consider the challenge of collapsing an industrialized civilization. This is where carbon dioxide (CO2) becomes the focus. The civilization the Club opposed comprised nations built on and driven by the energy provided by fossil fuels. It’s reasonable to compare these nations to a car, the very symbol of all they detest. You can stop a car engine by cutting off the fuel supply, but that would be extremely difficult and elicit quick anger in a country, as anger when fuel prices jump demonstrate. However, you can also stop a car engine by blocking the exhaust. Transfer that idea to nations and show that CO2, the byproduct of combustion of fossil fuels, was causing runaway, catastrophic, global warming to achieve the goal. What nastier image than the belching car exhaust or the even more dramatic chimneys of industry?
    - Dr Tim Ball This strategy to "stop a car engine by blocking the exhaust" has already been devised in the early 1970s at Friends of the Earth, but to stop nuclear power, not civilization as such. The called it constipating nuclear power. Constipation - Nuclear - Fossil Fuel - Pollution - Pychological Terror The greenhouse gas effect is way to constipate civilization by the application of psychological terror. It's particulary aimed at the young and impressionable. I began my investigation into the greenhouse gas effect by looking into books written about it. The outstanding thing about Bert Bolin's book is it's all about conferences held from the late 1970s onwards to clarify and estimate the size of the problem. This is in stark contrast to other books on the history of science and technology. Normal books invariably begin by describing findings from empirical research. It's clear that with the GHGE - long before any empirical research has been done, a group of scientists had already decided they had to find an problem. Examples: This switch, (1) began with protecting the ozone layer by banning CFCs (1986). (2) Then, in 1988, moved on to forcing renewables by demonizing carbon dioxide as a climate change vector. The EPA even coined the term "carbon pollution". This, in turn, led to the Zero Carbon cult. (3) Today we hear of "plastic pollution". Ideas such as carbon pollution (CO2) and plastic pollution rewrite the meaning of "pollution" into a floating signifier swear word. These imaginary pollutions are generally quite complex pseudoscience which economists and laymen cannot debate or oppose because they're posed as models. Indeed by posing pollution as a model one can hide the precise cause as a sub-model inside your model, or just a parameter. WHO go even further than this by simply claiming a certain casualty level for particulate emission when the evidence (studies) show no fatalities at low to medium particulate levels commonly experienced. (4) The WHO claim 8 million people die annually due to particulate emission "pollution". The US EPA, have actually funded at least $500 million in research to prove the particulate emissions are toxic. Steven Milloy looks at these pseudoscientific studies - which consistently failed to reveal any toxicity (at low particulate levels) https://www.amazon.com/Scare-Pollution-Why.../dp/0998259713 Why isn't pollution a limit to growth? Because the natural world is more dangerous than the man-made world. For example (1) the seas are full of mercury. We still eat fish. But sensible people limit themselves to 1 portion per week. If you want to eat more, then eat small fish (such as sardines) in preference to big fish. (2) Fungal toxins are some of the most carcinogenic substances found in nature. Fortunately we can limit our fungal intake to cultivated mushrooms, yogurt, etc. In practice - knowledge of the real world plus a little care - protect us from pollution. Yet - pseudo-science: ozone killing chemicals, greenhouse gases, killer particulates, and now "plastic pollution" - today dominate policy agendas, and terrify large numbers of people. Ultimately, Julian Simon won a battle but lost the war.
    1. 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population, by Thomas Malthus
    2. 1962. Silent Sprint, by Rachel Carson
    3. 1968. The Population Bomb, by Paul Ehrlich
    4. 1972. Limits to Growth, Club of Rome
    5. 1980. Julian Simon versus Paul Ehrlich wager
    6. 1981. The ultimate resource, Julian Simon
    7. 1986. The Montreal Protocol
    8. 1992. The Holes in the Ozone Scare, by Rogelio Madura and Ralf Schauerhammer
    9. 2016. Scare Pollution, by Steven Milloy
    10. 2017. Searching for the Catastrophe Signal: The Origins of the IPCC, by Bernie Lewin
    11. 2013. “Waste issue” is part of antinuclear movement strategy of constipation, by Rod Adams.
    12. 2010. A History Of The Science And Politics Of Climate Change, by Bert Bolin

    Energy and Economy

    Back in 1750 before the Industrial Revolution, most world manufacturing was in China (33%) and India (25%). Such manufacturing was labour intensive and inefficient.

    By 1913, Chinese and Indian shares of world manufacturing had dropped to 4% and 1% respectively. This change was due to trade and industrialization.

    Cheap, plentiful energy (mostly coal) enabled industrialization. Allowing us to replace human and animal labour with machine power (the steam engine) and automation. Which, in turn, leads to productivity increases; meaning getting more done with less labour time. Finally leading to lower prices. Such that Indian and Chinese manufacturers could not compete, on price, with mass-produced Western goods.

    The modern Western green agenda is an explicit de-industrialization strategy designed to induce poverty. In the UK it has been so successful that, in the past 22 years, UK experienced NO labour productivity increases at all. Nowt since 2002.

    Citations:

    1. Global Economic History - a very short introduction, by Robert C Allen. OUP, 2011.

    Tuesday, 6 February 2024

    Covid doom - 12 things was can all agree on

    by: Chris "Adequate Citations" Martenson, PhD; @chrismartenson

    Last edited: 2:41 AM · Feb 6, 2024

    Here's the truth as I know it.

    1. The virus was created in a lab
    2. It was given some 'features' such as four gp120 HIV inserts and several amyloid sequences that help to make it exceptionally toxic to cells, to the immune system, and to the circulatory system. This was a massive crime.
    3. The Covid gene experimental 'treatments' ALL included the entire toxic spike protein. For some reason.
    4. ALL western countries pursued the same sets of illogical and health-counterproductive strategies despite having ZERO science or evidence on their side for the shots, masks, mandates, or which businesses should stay open and which should close.
    5. "6 feet apart" was completely pulled out of someone's ass.
    6. NO major health authorities collected the most basic of data that would allow anyone to determine anything of importance about the shots. All we need is basic information so we can temporally connect the shots to outcomes. This would include onset of cancer, heart conditions, still-births, deaths, etc.
    7. Nearly EVERY hospital implemented sadistic regimes of isolating loved ones from their dying family members who were, incidentally, being murdered by those same hospitals with ventilators and Remdesivir.
    8. While all of that was going on, the media was busy running interference for every facet of that evil program.
    9. Meanwhile Social Media was busy implementing the very latest of cognitive warfare techniques to silence anybody and everybody who thought maybe any or all of the above was utter bollocks. This included shutting down vaccine injury groups who were being cruelly ignored and gaslit.
    10. None of this was accidental. It was all pre-planned and intentional.

    Plan accordingly. It gets darker before it get better.


    100% correct and if I can be so bold to add Was released during the 2019 World Military Games in Wuhan China in October at thee same time as Event 201 was run. Reports are easy to find of many nations reporting military personal returning home with flu like symptoms. Without the media hype this was sure to be Covid. Seeding into younger athletes who would carry and transmit but not get to sick as to raise alarm.

    -- Jefferson Earl, @JeffersonEarl1


    And at least 25 scientists, all named by their own arrogance, conspired to cover up the origin of this terrorist act.

    -- Jikkyleaks 🐭, @Jikkyleaks

    Saturday, 3 February 2024

    True goal of pharma ads on TV is to BUY OFF news media; not to sell drugs

    Monday, 29 January 2024

    Has the Sun’s true role in global warming been miscalculated?

    Press release
    CERES team | Oct 3, 2023 | 4 minute read

    A new international study published in the scientific peer-reviewed journal, Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics, by 20 climate researchers from 12 countries suggests that the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) might have substantially underestimated the role of the Sun in global warming.

    The article began as a response to a 2022 commentary on an extensive review of the causes of climate change published in 2021. The inal review (Connolly and colleagues, 2021) had suggested that the IPCC reports had inadequately accounted for two major scientific concerns when they were evaluating the causes of global warming since the 1850s:

    1. The global temperature estimates used in the IPCC reports are contaminated by urban warming biases.
    2. The estimates of solar activity changes since the 1850s considered by the IPCC substantially downplayed a possible large role for the Sun.

    On this basis, the 2021 review had concluded that it was not scientifically valid for the IPCC to rule out the possibility that global warming might be mostly natural.

    The findings of that 2021 review were disputed in a 2022 article by two climate researchers (Dr. Mark Richardson and Dr. Rasmus Benestad) for two main reasons:

    1. Richardson and Benestad (2022) argued that the mathematical techniques used by Connolly and colleagues (2021) were inappropriate and that a different set of mathematical techniques should have been used instead.
    2. They also argued that many of the solar activity records considered by Connolly and colleagues (2021) were not up-to-date.

    They suggested that these were the reasons why Connolly and colleagues (2021) had come to a different conclusion from the IPCC.

    This new 2023 article by the authors of the 2021 review, has addressed both of these concerns and shown even more compelling evidence that the IPCC’s statements on the causes of global warming since 1850 are scientifically premature and may need to be revisited.

    The authors showed that the urban component of the IPCC’s global temperature data shows a strong warming bias relative to the 98% of the planet that is unaffected by urbanization. However, they also showed that urbanized data represented most of the weather station records used.

    While the IPCC only considered one estimate of solar activity for their most recent (2021) evaluation of the causes of global warming, Connolly and colleagues compiled and updated 27 different estimates that were used by the scientific community.

    Several of these different solar activity estimates suggest that most of the warming observed outside urban areas (in rural areas, oceans, and glaciers) could be explained in terms of the Sun. Some estimates suggest that global warming is a mixture of human and natural factors. Other estimates agreed with the IPCC’s findings.

    For this reason, the authors concluded that the scientific community is not yet in a position to establish whether the global warming since the 1850s is mostly human-caused, mostly natural or some combination of both.

    The lead author of the study, Dr. Ronan Connolly, of the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences (CERES-Science.com) described the implications of their findings,

    “In scientific investigations, it is important to avoid beginning your analysis with your conclusions decided in advance. Otherwise you might end up with a false sense of confidence in your findings. It seems that the IPCC was too quick to jump to their conclusions.”

    Another author of the study, Dr. Willie Soon, also of the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences, explained:

    “If the IPCC had paid more attention to open-minded scientific inquiry than trying to force a premature ‘scientific consensus’, then the scientific community would be a lot closer to having genuinely resolved the causes of climate change. Hopefully, our new analysis and datasets can help other scientists to get back to doing real climate science.”

    This study reaches similar conclusions to another study that was recently published in a separate scientific peer-reviewed journal, Climate. This other study involved many of the same co-authors (led by Dr. Soon) and focused on a detailed case study of two solar activity estimates and two temperature estimates. It took a different approach to analyzing the problem but confirmed that varying the choice of solar activity and temperature estimates can lead to very different conclusions on the causes of global warming.

    For media inquiries, please contact Dr. Ronan Connolly (Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences) at ronan@ceres-science.com or Dr. Willie Soon (Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences) at mailto:willie@ceres-science.com.


    Link to the study:

      ronan@ceres-science.com
    • R. Connolly, W. Soon, M. Connolly, S. Baliunas, J. Berglund, C.J. Butler, R.G. Cionco, A.G. Elias, V. Fedorov, H. Harde, G.W. Henry, D.V. Hoyt, O. Humlum, D.R. Legates, N. Scafetta, J.-E. Solheim, L. Szarka, V.M. Velasco Herrera, H. Yan and W.J. Zhang (2023). "Challenges in the detection and attribution of Northern Hemisphere surface temperature trends since 1850". Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics, 23(10), 105015. https://doi.org/10.1088/1674-4527/acf18e. (Open access).
    • Link to accompanying datasets.

    Links to other studies mentioned:

  • R. Connolly, W. Soon, M. Connolly, S. Baliunas, J. Berglund, C. J. Butler, R. G. Cionco, A. G. Elias, V. M. Fedorov, H. Harde, G. W. Henry, D. V. Hoyt, O. Humlum, D. R. Legates, S. Lüning, N. Scafetta, J.-E. Solheim, L. Szarka, H. van Loon, V. M. Velasco Herrera, R. C. Willson, H. Yan and W. Zhang (2021). How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate. Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics, 21, 131. https://doi.org/10.1088/1674-4527/21/6/131. Supplementary Materials available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7088728 527/ac981c.
  • M.T. Richardson and R.E. Benestad (2022). "Erroneous use of Statistics behind Claims of a Major Solar Role in Recent Warming". Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics, 22(12), 125008. https://doi.org/10.1088/1674-4https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7088728 527/ac981c. (pdf available here).
  • W. Soon, R. Connolly, M. Connolly, S.-I. Akasofu, S. Baliunas, J. Berglund, A. Bianchini, W.M. Briggs, C.J. Butler, R.G. Cionco, M. Crok, A.G. Elias, V.M. Fedorov, F. Gervais, H. Harde, G.W. Henry, D.V. Hoyt, O. Humlum, D.R. Legates, A.R. Lupo, S. Maruyama, P. Moore, M. Ogurtsov, C. ÓhAiseadha, M.J. Oliveira, S.-S. Park, S. Qiu, G. Quinn, N. Scafetta, J.-E. Solheim, J. Steele, L. Szarka, H.L. Tanaka, M.K. Taylor, F. Vahrenholt, V.M. Velasco Herrera and W. Zhang (2023). "The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data", Climate, 11(9), 179. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11090179. (Open access).
  • IPCC (2021). "Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change". Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press. https://ipcc.ch
  • Saturday, 27 January 2024

    Reply to Sabine Hossenfelder on climate change.

    Sabine Hossenfelder posted this doom laden article about the future.

    This is my reply.


    Climate change is NOT about the changing climate. It is a proxy eugenicist / Malthusian discussion. Climate change is an attempt at a grand ("Platonic" - see The Republic) noble lie. Like previous noble lies it's elite group-think. But unlike Socrates' noble lies and most from the past (religions, nationalisms, ...), today's noble lies are ONLY here to scare us - not to inspire us. Our elites no longer lead, they think they "nudge".

    Climate sensitivity is pseudo-science. "Greenhouse gases", do not drive climate changes, nor does pollution, nor anything man-made. The sun dominates climate changes. Climate models are bad; varying from could-do-better to absolute garbage. Greenhouse gas climate models are the garbage. These are the official, IPCC, WEF, green-NGO models.

    These model validations discussed here are pseudo or illegitimate science. In real (working) science it does not matter who validates a model because empiricist research is competence-based. Skilled empirical scientists agree. That's why the research is accepted as a validation. No theorist, nor modeller validates their own theory or model. But "climate change" is elite groupthink; a noble lie. Elites only want to hear lies. More importantly, they only you to hear lies. So, ONLY modelers and IPCC spawn are allowed to validate climate models. Non groupthink is rejected by scientific journals, and the researchers are monstered as 'climate deniers'. Big journals are all run by elites. For example, James Hansen is a modeler and greenhouse gas theorist. With good science he would not be validating his own work.

    It's a shame Sabine was bought into the groupthink. I guess she makes too much money from elite funders. It really is evil lying to kids about the world ending. Sabine should be ashamed of herself.

    Post Scripts

    1. Sabine has been invited to discuss this with expert doom-skeptics, but she refused as there was no payment for her.
    2. Not all noble lies are elite. For example: woke, Marxism, feminism, ... are anti-establishment. But anti-elite noble lies are all dreamt up by academics. None are validated (AKA: they don't work either).
    3. Other climate models, those unofficial, non-IPCC ones are interesting but every one of them - I "believed in" - disappointed me.

    Recommended readings

    1. The Republic, by Plato
      see: the parable of the metals in Book III
    2. The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science, by Tim Ball, 2014
    3. The Grip of Culture, by Andy West, 2023
    4. Global Warming: A Case Study in Groupthink, by Christopher Booker, 2018

    Cancelled Data

    current list | this page

    Biography of George Clarke Simpson. British Meterologist

    Reblog. Biography of George Clarke Simpson. British Meterologist. Source. Royal Society. The source is an encrypted PDF. So I republished this because I wanted an electronic list of G.C. Simpson's pubications.


    GEORGE CLARKE SIMPSON, 1878-1965

    George Clarke Simpson was born at Derby on 2 September 1878, the second son and third of the seven children, three sons and four daughters, of Arthur and Alice Lambton Simpson. Arthur, born at Derby on 25 May 1851 and educated at Derby Grammar School, was the son of a Derby shopkeeper—of a small retail shop—and, until his marriage, helped in his father’s shop. Alice was the daughter of a well-to-do wharfinger, Thomas William Clarke, of Sutton Bridge, Lincolnshire, whose business was ruined through the silting up of the port. She was born on 25 March 1853 and died on 22 December 1937.

    On marriage Arthur and Alice started a business of their own and slowly and laboriously built up a wholesale business, hardware, drapery and toys, one of the best in Derby at the end of the century. Arthur was an active church worker, a particularly successful teacher of young men in the Sunday School and, later in life, Councillor, Alderman and Mayor of Derby. He died on 27 June 1917. Arthur’s brother, George, was the father of David Capell Simpson, Oriel Professor of Interpretation of Holy Scripture, Oxford, 1925-1950.

    In the early years of their marriage Simpson’s parents lived over their warehouse in Bag Lane, later East Street, in the centre of Derby and there Simpson was born. About twelve years later his parents bought a house in a better locality where the family lived the typical life of the Victorian middle class. It was a happy family and, as the business continued to grow, there was never any real shortage of moony; but there was no extravagance and certainly no waste.

    Simpson married, on 23 September 1914 at St John’s Church, Sydney, New South Wales, Dorothy Jane, daughter of Cecil and Alice Stephen. Cecil Stephen, a barrister, was the son of Sir Alfred Stephen, P.C., G.C.M.G., Chief Justice (1844-1873) and Lieutenant-Governor (for three short periods between 1875 and 1891) of New South Wales, His ancestor James Stephen (1733-1779) was also the ancestor of Sir James Fitzjames Stephen, Bt., and Sir Leslie Stephen. Alice Stephen was the daughter of Sir Frederick Tooth, Bt.

    George and Dorothy Simpson had three sons, Scott, Arthur Cecil and Oliver, and a daughter, Jean Veronica. Scott is Professor of Geology in the University of Exeter; Arthur, Officer in Charge, Fisheries Laboratory, Burnham-on-Crouch; Oliver, Superintendent, Basic Physics, National Physical Laboratory; and Jean a doctor of medicine.

    At some time not later than 1887 Simpson entered the Diocesan School, Derby, a small school established to educate the sons of tradesmen and of the better class of artisan. There were about 60 boys and the single schoolroom was divided, after prayers, by curtains to separate the classes. What little was taught, it included French and physiography, was well taught, to the standard of the elementary grade certificate of the Department of Science and Art. Simpson did well; by the time he was fifteen he had got first classes in all the certificate examinations, except shorthand in which he confessed he was a total failure; he was top of the school. The Head Master, at a loss what to do with him, set him at a desk by himself, gave him a book on physiography and told him to prepare for the Advanced Physiography Certificate. This he did and obtained the certificate, the first advanced certificate won by the school.

    At the end of 1894 he left school and entered his father’s business, ‘as a matter of course’. He began in his spare time to read popular science, was literally fascinated by Tyndall’s Light, found Stokes’s Optics needed a knowledge of mathematics beyond what he had learned at school and joined the evening class in trigonometry of a Mr Goudie to remedy the defect. His father, observing his interest in scientific reading, asked him if he was happy in the business or would like another kind of work. Although the possibility of leaving the business had never entered his head he immediately replied that he would like to go in for science. Anxious thought ensued, and enquiries of friends, ending with his father’s decision to send him to Owens College, Manchester, which, with University College, Liverpool, and Yorkshire College, Leeds, constituted Victoria University. This was early in 1897; his education had ended more than two years before and had not been up to the standard even to begin a university course. So in March 1897 he left the business and had six months’ private tuition by Mr Goudie before the beginning of the university year. It was considered that, in spite of the tuition, he would have no chance of passing the Preliminary Examination in September but that he should sit for it to gain experience; he could then enter college for an ordinary degree, though not for an honours course, and take the Preliminary at the end of his first year with the expectation of passing. In the event, to everyone’s surprise, he passed in September.

    So in October 1897 he entered Dalton Hall with very little education and less culture; a marked provincial accent and practically total ignorance of art, literature and music, but with a sound moral background based on a happy home, much church going and years as a Sunday School teacher. In view of ‘the very little education’ he was advised that there was no hope of his taking an honours degree in physics in three years. Accordingly he registered for the ordinary degree with extra lectures and laboratory work in physics. But Providence intervened. A few days after the session had begun Professor Schuster saw Simpson working in the physics laboratory at a time when there was no ordinary class and went over to him. After a few minutes’ talk Schuster told him he was making a mistake in taking the ordinary degree, that he should go to the Registrar to get the course changed to Honours Physics and should do it at once as that was the last day on which courses could be changed.

    Simpson did as he was told and so took the honours course. He was never in any doubt as to the significance of the change for his future. Without the honours degree, he was convinced he could never have done what he did. But he was painfully conscious throughout his life of his lack of the knowledge of mathematics and chemistry which a normal, instead of a compressed, course in science would have given him. In all his research work he had to get help or read up ad hoc whenever he needed mathematics or chemistry in solving a problem.

    The honours course included a provision, due to Schuster, for the submission of a piece of research work as part of the final examination. The provision came into operation in Simpson’s year. His research was ‘to investigate the effects of temperature on the distribution of magnetism in an iron bar with special reference to a possible change in the direction of the magnetic axis’. The problem, suggested by Schuster as having a possible bearing on the variations of terrestrial magnetism, proved too big for one year’s work but an account of the work was submitted and Simpson got a first class honours degree. In the following autumn he accepted the post of Tutor in Physics at Dalton Hall, without salary, but with free board and lodging which, with a University Scholarship of £50, gave him financial independence; and time for research, on the resistance of bismuth to an alternating current in a strong magnetic field, the subject of two papers in the Philosophical Magazine. Shortly after the research began Schuster asked him if he would like to go to the Antarctic with Captain Scott who was then organizing his first expedition and wanted a physicist in it. Simpson jumped at the opportunity, was accepted by Scott subject to a medical examination ; this turned him down for a minor defect of which he had not been aware. He resumed his research but took an early opportunity to have a small operation which completely removed the defect.

    In these two post-graduate years Simpson became active in the student life of the College which celebrated its Jubilee in 1901, with the opening of Whitworth Hall by the Prince of Wales and the introduction of academic dress for the undergraduates. He also became Secretary of the Manchester Committee formed to further the establishment of three separate universities in Leeds, Liverpool and Manchester in place of the single Victoria University.

    In 1902 he was awarded an 1851 Exhibition. The holder was required to undertake a research at some university other than that of his training. On Schuster’s advice he chose Göttingen and in November 1902 began at the Geophysikalisches Institut, then under Wiechert, to attack the problem of the earth's permanent negative charge. At the end of his year’s work he was able to show that this charge could not be maintained by absorption of negative ions from the atmosphere as Elster and Geitel had suggested. This negative result was not very satisfying and Simpson thought that positive progress in this and other problems of atmospheric electricity might be made by observations in high latitudes where the long period of direct solar radiation in summer and its total absence for long periods in winter would enable the part played by solar radiation in the ionization of the atmosphere to be ascertained; also the effect of the aurora on the electrical state of the lower atmosphere could be investigated. He therefore obtained permission to undertake a year’s work on atmospheric electricity in Lapland. Two considerations governed his choice of place, (i) to have as long a period as possible with the sun continuously above the horizon in summer and below it in winter, (ii) to be well away from the coast, especially because Elster and Geitel had found radio-activity markedly lower on Juist, an island in the North Sea, than at inland places in Europe. On these grounds he chose the Lapp village Karasjok (Lat. 69° 17’ N, Long. 25° 35’ E 129 m above sea-level) about 100 miles south of Hammerfest and 150 miles east of Tromso. For a period of two months the sun was above the horizon in summer and below it in winter. Temperature in summer rose to 25 °C and fell to —40 °C or °F in winter. There, with a Benndorf electrometer, he obtained a continuous record of potential gradient from which he measured hourly values each day; with an Elster and Geitel instrument the dissipation was measured three times daily and the measurement had to be made with the instrument freely exposed in an open situation where it was in no way sheltered from the wind; with an Ebert apparatus the ionization was measured at the same time as the dissipation; the radio-activity was measured by the Elster and Geitel method using a wire 10 metres long stretched between insulators in the open air and charged to a negative potential of between 2000 and 2500 volts; each observation took over two hours and was made three times a day in alternate months, alternate weeks in summer, and an additional observation between 3 a.m. and 5 a.m. during one week out of four. It must have been a year of very hard work, daily from 7.30 a.m. to 7.30 p.m. and sometimes on nights of aurora to 9 or 10 p.m. The period covered was 28 September 1903 to 1 October 1904 at Karasjok followed by daily observations of radio-activity at Hammerfest from 17 October to 12 November 1904.

    An account of the work with a summary and discussion of the observations was published in 1905 under the title ‘Atmospheric electricity in high latitudes’. There was a rich harvest, though, on the question of the effect of solar radiation on ionization Simpson hesitated to draw a definite conclusion. ionization rose during the two months with the sun continuously above the horizon, and fell in the opposite period, but the maximum and minimum came two months after the solstices. There was, naturally, practically no daily variation of ionization in these solstitial periods; and, in the intermediate seasons, spring and autumn, ionization was a little lower at mid-day than in the morning and lower still in the evening. The daily range was only about one-tenth of the annual range. As expected, dissipation varied with the strength of the wind; in winter the value with little or no wind was only a fifth of the value with a moderate wind of about ten miles per hour; there was a large annual variation, the value in summer being more than double that in winter.

    The continuous records of potential gradient were summarized separately for the four seasons, winter being taken as November, December, January and the other seasons conformably. The outstanding features are the practical identity of the values for winter and spring, 180 and 177 V/m, and a similar near-identity in the curves of diurnal variation for these two seasons; also similar identities, at a lower level, for the two seasons summer and autumn whose mean values were 97 and 103 respectively. The parallelism of the curves is very striking and so is the contrast between the ranges in the two pairs of seasons—60 V/m in winter-spring and 20 V/m in summer-autumn.

    Radioactivity in the atmosphere was then a new phenomenon; it had been discovered by Elster and Geitel only two years before. The few observations Simpson was able to fit in with his other work in the first two months gave values so much higher than any recorded up to that time that he decided he must make a planned series of observations. It was not easy, as each observation took two hours. Simpson did it and the results justified the effort. The mean value for the year at Karasjok, 60, was more than three times that in mid-Germany, 19, though less than that at Freiburg, 84. But while high values above 200 were frequent at Karasjok only one such value occurred in a year’s observations at Freiburg. The most important meteorological clement affecting the radio-activity proved to be the strength of the wind. In calm or light winds the mean value was 98, in moderate winds 47 and in high winds 33. Another result, supporting the theory that the radio-activity emanated from the ground, was the higher value, 85, with a falling barometer compared with 71 for a rising barometer. Even stronger support for the theory came from the observations at Hammerfest which gave a mean value 6 with wind from the sea and 72 with wind from the land.

    A not unexpected difficulty in the measurements of ionization arose in winter through the freezing of the oil in the Ebert instrument at temperatures below —20 °C; in summer an unanticipated interruption was caused through mosquitoes being drawn in with the air; a net kept out the mosquitos but it also reduced the ionization, by an amount varying with the strength of the wind; two months’ observations had to be discarded.

    In 1905 Schuster founded a small meteorological department in the University at Manchester with Simpson in charge, the first lecturer in meteorology in any British university. The department was also to have a station for the exploration of the upper air. The Prussian Meteorological Institute had established one in 1899 at Tegel near Berlin, equipped with kites, kite-balloon and personnel, with the aim, soon achieved, of getting each day temperature, humidity and wind at heights up to 5000 or 6000 ft. and, at intervals, by means of manned and free balloons, to heights occasionally exceeding 60 000 ft. for temperature but not for wind. It would have been quite impossible to obtain money for such an observatory in Britain; the efforts of the Joint Upper-air Committee of the British Association and the Royal Meteorological Society were directed to obtaining, with voluntary assistance and small grants, information from a network of stations about the distribution in space of temperature and humidity in the upper air at moderate heights. The Manchester University station, established by Simpson and continued by Petavel, was an important addition to the rather meagre network: Oxshott, Brighton and Petersfield. In this same year, 1905, the Meteorological Office was placed, as from 1 April, under the management of a Treasury Committee, with a Director appointed by the Treasury, in place of the Meteorological Council, nominated by and reporting to the President and Council of the Royal Society. Schuster, a member of the Council and then of the new Committee, arranged with the Council for Simpson to work, from | March, as volunteer assistant to the Secretary, Dr W. N. Shaw, who was to be, from 1 April, Director of the Office and Chairman of the new Committee. Shaw suggested to Simpson that he should investigate the relation between the Beaufort Scale of Wind Force and measured speeds of the wind. Shaw’s predecessor, R. H. Scott, had, in 1874, prepared a table of equivalents on the information then available. Eleven years later the Royal Meteorological Society included a re-examination of the relation among the questions to be investigated by a Wind Force Committee instituted in June 1885. This Committee found from experiments of W. H. Dines that the values of wind speed derived from standard Robinson cup anemometers were nearly forty per cent too high. With this information and largely increased data provided by the independent estimates of the Beaufort Number at stations with anemometers, R. H. Curtis in England in 1896 and W. Köppen in Germany in 1898 put forward new, but different, equivalents. The difference arose, at least in part, because Curtis’s equivalent of a number B was the arithmetic mean of all the velocities recorded on the occasions when number B was the estimate, while Köppen’s equivalent was derived by taking the arithmetic mean of all the B’s estimated when the velocity had a value V and obtaining by interpolation the value of V for each whole number B. The great variation in the frequency of occurrence of different speeds leads to appreciable errors in equivalents obtained by the Curtis method. The more frequent speeds are in fact over-weighted; each Beaufort Number covers a range of speeds. At the lower speeds the frequency increases rapidly with the speed so that the higher speeds in this range are over-weighted and the arithmetic mean is too high. At higher speeds than average the frequency decreases with the speed and the arithmetic mean is too low. Simpson went very fully into the question and arrived at equivalents which fitted very closely the relation V = 1.87 B3/2 where V is in miles per hour. The original specification of B by Admiral Beaufort depended on the effect of the wind on the working of a sailing-ship, and would naturally be expected to make B a function of the pressure of the wind. In fact, as the relation shows B is proportional to the cube root of the pressure. After completing the investigation of the equivalents, Simpson went on, in consultation with Dr Shaw, R. G. K. Lempfert and Campbell Hepworth, to prepare instructions for estimating the Beaufort Number of the wind on land from its effects on trees, buildings, dust and persons, and instructions for use on fishing smacks, complementary to those of Admiral Beaufort for sailing ships. It does not seem to have been realized at the time that the direct method of Curtis would have given equivalents free from the error due to frequency if the arithmetic mean had been taken of the single values of the speed recorded on occasions of number B, i.e. if speed V1 occurred n times, V2 m times, etc., the mean would be taken of V1 V2, etc., and not of nV1 mV2, etc. Simpson’s published report was prefaced by a characteristic illuminating introduction by Dr Shaw.

    Although the result of Simpson’s investigation seamed conclusive enough, different sets of equivalents were used in some countries, notably by the Deutsche Seewarte, and in 1921 the International Meteorological Committee asked Simpson's help in reconciling the differences and in getting a scale which would be acceptable generally. He accepted the task, found that the differences were largely due to differences in the exposure of the anemometers, the outstanding importance of which had been emphasized by W. H. Dines in 1887; ‘the top of a building seems to be about the worst possible position’ and the anemometers used by the Scewarte were cither above the roofs of buildings or at a much lower height above ground than those used by Simpson in 1905. He therefore recommended a scale with the 1905 equivalents adjusted to be applicable to the speeds from an anemometer freely exposed at a height of 6 metres above ground in an open situation. This was accepted by the Committee in 1926, the scale to be appropriately adjusted for exposures differing appreciably from the standard.

    In 1906 Simpson accepted an appointment in the Indian Meteorological Office, then under the direction of G. T. Walker, who had already recruited two ‘Imperial Meteorologists’, J. Patterson, later Director of the Canadian Meteorological Service and J. H. Field, who later succeeded Walker. Simpson completed the trinity. He took up his new duties at Simla in November and almost immediately initiated an investigation of the electricity of rain, plentiful at Simla, where other conditions were not very favourable for research in atmospheric electricity; no level spaces for outdoor observations, sparse laboratory facilities, neither gas nor electricity, indeed not even water laid on. Moreover, the inspection of meteorological stations in all parts of India and Burma involved long absences from Simla though it provided experience of the diversity of climate and taught him much about the people of India and its political problems. But the problem exercising his mind then and indeed for the next thirty years was the generation and distribution of the electricity of thunderstorms. The first step was to ascertain the charge on rain. To do this he let the rain, falling through a cylinder in the roof of a corrugated iron hut, drop into a large well-insulated galvanized iron vessel connected to a Benndorf electrometer which recorded the potential of the vessel every two minutes, the vessel being earthed automatically at the beginning of each two-minute interval. The rain leaving the vessel in the same two minutes was also recorded automatically. The walls of the hut were carried to a height of about two metres above the roof, to protect the cylinder from the earth’s electric field and from the wind; rain from the sides of the cylinder was drained away and did not enter the receiving vessel. A second Benndorf electrometer recorded the potential gradient, not the actual value because during a thunderstorm this changes too rapidly and too greatly for the instrument to follow the changes; a simple modification made it record only the predominant sign during the two-minute interval. With this installation he measured the charge on rain which fell in 1926 two-minute intervals during a period of about five months from April to September 1908. The charge was positive about 2.4 times as often as it was negative and the total positive charge was 2.9 times the total negative charge; the greater the charge the more frequently was it positive. With rain falling at a rate greater than 30 mm/h the charge was never negative; and, in fact, negative electricity was brought down by light rain proportionately much more frequently than positive. Another result was that the proportion of negative electricity was greater in the second than in the first part of a storm; on one occasion the negative charge was so great that the electric force would have been great enough to carry the drops upward against gravity if the potential gradient had been half that necessary for a lightning discharge ; actually, as C. T. R. Wilson has pointed out, an unlikely event since the large potential gradient is maintained by the fall of the drops. The record of potential gradient from the Benndorf electrometer showed that the gradient was more often negative than positive during rain but the sign of the charge bore no relation to the sign of the gradient.

    Simultaneously with this investigation of the charge on rain, Simpson carried out a laboratory research to see if any electrical separation arose from the mixing of masses of air of different temperatures and humidities or from the freezing or thawing of water, but with negative results. He then tried breaking large water drops into spray by an air jet. At first, using water from the mains, there was no electrical effect but when distilled water was used the spray acquired a considerable positive charge. This was a momentous discovery, for Lenard had concluded that, though drops splashing on a flat plate produced an electrical effect, drops breaking up in the air did not.

    A third result due to Lenard, essential for the application of the results of these two investigations to the explanation of the development of the electricity of thunderstorms, was that large drops of water falling through air break up into smaller drops if the large drops have a diameter of 5.5 mm or more.

    With this knowledge Simpson calculated first the number of drops of limiting size at the top of a column 2000 m high and 1 cm² cross-section, at the end of 10 min, if the air at the bottom was saturated, had a temperature 15 °C, rose at a speed of 8 m/s and all the condensed water at the top was in the form of limiting size drops. The number was 36. He then calculated the number of drops per cm? whose breaking up would produce a potential gradient 30 000 V/cm, the value necessary for a lightning discharge. The number was 1600. The difference is large but Simpson pointed out that in the violent ascending currents drops could be broken up and recombine many times since the small drops are charged and consequently combine readily. On this account he felt justified in claiming that the breaking up of drops produced enough separation of electricity to cause lightning discharge. There was in fact no doubt about the reality of the separation; the doubt was about its magnitude and about the possibility of the drops breaking up and recombining 50 or 100 times and each such repetitive drop producing the same electric field as 50 or 100 separate drops. Against these doubts, dependent on calculations which may themselves be in error, can be set with more confidence the observed facts, consistent with the theory, that in storm after storm negatively charged rain fell in the lulls after a heavy downpour of positively charged rain. On the whole the theory seemed not only attractive but convincing and it held the field for about ten years. Then investigations both observational and theoretical, notably by C. T. R. Wilson in England and by Schonland and Craib in South Africa, appeared to necessitate thunder-clouds of positive polarity instead of the negative polarity of Simpson’s theory. Simpson restated his theory with more detail and illustrations of the Now of the air, the fall of the rain and the distribution of the electric charge in a typical thunder-cloud. He also calculated the electric field due to a simplified model distribution representative of the illustrated distribution of the electric charge. He claimed that the results were in accord both with his observations at Simla and with the observations of Wilson, Schonland and Craib, and of Appleton, Watson-Watt and Herd. He also made a new calculation of the number of breaking drops required for producing the electric field of a Simla thunderstorm and found that it would suffice if each drop broke ten times, a frequency which there was no reason to believe could not be reached with quite moderate ascending currents. Nevertheless he had some lingering doubts; the observational evidence was almost wholly of conditions outside the cloud. Seven years later he and F. J. Scrase designed an instrument which could be carried by a balloon up through a thunder-cloud, recording the sign of the potential gradient as it ascended. A series of records in thunder-clouds over Kew Observatory was obtained in the years 1934-1939. They showed (i) a negative charge in the middle levels of the thunder-clouds, both below and above the level of the ice-point temperature, (ii) in every cloud a positive charge above the negative charge at levels where, in most cases, the temperature is below -10°C; (iii) evidence that in most, if not in all, thunderstorms there are regions of positive charge below the negative charge, usually at levels where the temperature is above the ice-point and at places of heavy rain, and therefore probably due to the breaking of raindrops in ascending currents. The most probable cause of the upper positive charge is the collision of ice crystals which gives the ice a negative and the air a positive charge; the crystals fall and the charges are separated. Thus the middle levels are fed with negative charge from above by these ice crystals and from below by the ascending currents in the core of the thunderstorm. A recent investigation by J. B. Matthews and B. J. Mason revealed that breaking drops in strong eclectic fields of 300 and 1500 V/cm, such as may exist inside a thunder-cloud, produce charges 70 and 240 times as large as the charge found by Simpson in the absence of an electric field. Hence the field strength necessary for a lightning discharge can be produced by the breaking drops without frequent recombination and_ successive breaking.

    In 1909 Captain Scott again invited Simpson to go with him to the Antarctic, starting the following year. This time there was no difficulty. India released him; he came to England and collected apparatus, towards the cost of which the people of Derby had subscribed a ‘Derby Fund’ of £500. He sailed in the Terra Nova, leaving England in June 1910 and arriving at McMurdo Sound on 4 January 1911. He was meteorologist and C. S. Wright was physicist but they worked together and shared the observations and when Simpson had to return to India, owing to the illness of Dr Walker, Wright took charge of the meteorologist’s work. During the voyage out, on the whole a rough one, he and Wright made observations of ionization and radio-activity and round the clock observations of potential gradient. The latter gave for the first time the diurnal variation of the gradient at sea, the phase of which is independent of longitude although this was not recognized at the time.

    During the fourteen months before his unexpected return in the Terra Nova in March 1912 Simpson was fully occupied making meteorological observations and looking after the recording instruments at the base station at Cape Evans the results of which he was to work up, for publication, in his spare time in the years 1912-1918. They were published in three volumes, the first two in Calcutta in 1919 and the third in London in 1923. The magnetic records from instruments, installed in a cave dug in the ice and completed in a week in January 1911, and under Simpson’s charge until March 1912, were worked up for publication under Dr Chree’s direction and published, with his discussion of them, in London in 1921.

    The meteorological equipment included balloons and instruments for obtaining the temperature in the upper air. To the instrument was attached a mile-long length of very light silk thread, so that, when it fell, the thread could be followed from the launching site and the instrument could be recovered. In the early ascents, the silk thread broke inexplicably and failed in its purpose, but the cause was discovered and a method devised for preventing it.

    The ascents could be made only in relatively calm weather so that the records gave information only for calm weather conditions. In winter the temperature rose at first from the surface up to a height of 1000 m. It then began to fall and continued to do so up to 2500 m. In summer it fell steadily, at the rate of about 6°C per 1000 m, from the surface up to the greatest height reached.

    The full account by Simpson of this and all the meteorological and magnetic work in the first volume, Discussion, is of absorbing interest.

    Before Simpson left England for the Antarctic Dr Shaw mentioned to him that an important question on which observations there might throw some light was that of the lowest temperature at which supercooled water drops occur in the atmosphere. With this in mind he mace a note on one occasion of a fog bow when the temperature was —29 °C and as the fog dissipated, the sun shining over the top of a heavy bank of fog had a brilliant corona with bright colours and of unusually large diameter. The existence of the fog bow was conclusive evidence that the fog was one of supercooled water drops; the corona, according to the then current theory, could have been formed by a cloud of ice needles. Other observations had Iced him to doubt whether ice crystals could produce diffraction effects. He found that ice needles could do so but as they would float with their axes preponderantly horizontal they could not form the symmetrical corona observed. He set out his case in a paper published in 1912 which included also a note giving reasons for concluding that iridescent clouds must also consist of water drops though they are usually of cirrus type and therefore of a temperature well below the ice point.

    After his return to India in 1912 he was too fully occupied with administrative work and Antarctic records to do research. In 1915 he was Acting Director-General of Observatories for eight months during Dr Walker’s absence in England and in 1916 he was with the British Expeditionary Force in Mesopotamia for two months advising on some meteorological problems. In 1917 he was seconded to the Indian Munitions Board, not returning to the Meteorological Department until April 1919. During his work on the Antarctic records of pressure he was led to examine the semi-diurnal variation not only there but in other parts of the world. In middle and low latitudes the phase of this wave is nearly constant for places near sea level, when time is measured from local midnight. The maxima of pressure in this wave occur a little before 10 a.m. and 10 p.m. In polar regions, as first discovered by Greely in 1888 from observations in the Arctic up to latitude 80°, the maxima occur at nearly the same Greenwich time whatever the longitude. Simpson, using data from 15 stations north of 70° N and spread over 280° of longitude, found that the local times of maxima ranged over the 24 hours of the day while the Greenwich times were within about an hour of midnight and noon. Schmidt had suggested in 1890 that the anomaly might be explained as due to two waves, one with amplitude decreasing from equator to pole, travelling from east to west and the other from pole to pole. A discussion on this basis had been published in 1909, with values for the amplitudes of the two waves from 45°N to the pole. Simpson adopted the hypothesis of a wave from equator to pole with a node at latitude 35° 16’. Taking Jaerisch’s formula for the amplitude of the variation treated as a single wave, 1.312 cos³L where L is latitude, he made the change necessary to allow for the contribution of the equator-pole wave and arrived at 1.249 cos³L sin(2t + 154°) as the representation of the east-west wave. For the amplitude of the equator-pole wave he took the formula k(sin²L —⅓) and derived the value of k, 0.183, from the observed amplitudes at stations between 50°N and the pole; the phase he found to be constant in latitude 40° to 80°. He adopted this value, 105°, giving for this wave 0.183(sin²L — ⅓) sin(2t + 105° — 2l) where l is longitude, t is local time (1 hour = 15°) and the values are in millibars, and refer to sea level. The mean values of the differences between the observed amplitudes and phases and the values derived from the formulae, for the combined variation for 216 stations, was 0.024 mb. and 4° respectively.

    Early in 1920 Simpson was asked if he would accept nomination by Cambridge University as a member of the Egyptian Government’s Nile Projects Commission. He accepted. The other two members were irrigation engineers nominated by the United States and India. The Commission was charged ‘to give to the Egyptian Government its opinion on the projects prepared by the Ministry of Public Works with a view to the further regulation of the Nile supply for the benefit of Egypt and the Sudan’. The Commission first examined, with the assistance of a judge, charges that senior officers of the Ministry had tampered with the records. They found that the charges had no foundation. They then examined the system of control of the Nile, the records of water supply and the methods of irrigation, and recommended approval of the projects. In the middle of this work he received at Khartoum a cable inviting him to succeed Sir Napier Shaw, who was retiring in September, as Director of the Meteorological Office. He accepted, resigned his appointment in India, and took up his new duties on 6 September 1920. During the war the Admiralty and the Air Ministry had established Meteorological Branches, and there were Meteorological Sections with the Armies in France, Italy and Greece, provided by the Meteorological Office. By September 1920 all these had been taken over by the Office, along with the British Rainfall Organization which had grown as a private venture under G. J. Symons and later under H. R. Mill. Control of the Office itself had passed in 1919 from the Treasury Committee to the Air Ministry, and provisional re-arrangements had necessarily been made by Sir Napier Shaw in the organization of the greatly expanded Office. Two Assistant Directors had been appointed and their spheres had been based on a broadly vertical division of the Office. Simpson continued this tentatively but, in the light of experience, decided that a smoother running of the machine would be ensured by a horizontal division. This cast directly on himself some burdens which the vertical division cushioned and for the first few of his eighteen years as Director he was wholly occupied with the problems of administration ; he had no spare time for research. He did not inherit a business, running as it were, of its own accord on lines of safety and efficiency. The Air Ministry was itself a new creation, complex and in process of development. It included military (for a time also naval) and civil aviation, in which airships were planned for operating long distance passenger services. The Meteorological Office had an appreciably broader field. It could not just slip into a prepared room in the edifice; it took time, thought and discussion to make the Office an integral part of the Ministry, still able to cover its broader field. The desired result was achieved. Naturally there was not the freedom which the Treasury representative had regarded as an enviable privilege enjoyed by the former Meteorological Committee; but neither was there the restriction of an almost unalterable annual grant. Money was now forthcoming to cover the cost of meting irresistible demands without paring necessary services. At the same time, following the practice of his parents in the family life at Derby, Simpson always aimed at running the Office ‘without extravagance or waste’. One outstanding advantage was the service of communications provided through close co-operation with the Signals Branch of the Ministry which ensured the prompt and rapid collection and distribution of the fundamental technical data and information, eventually by a teleprinter network.

    Before the transfer to the Air Ministry, the Meteorological Office had, in addition to a section, Secretarial Staff, four technical Divisions, Marine, ' Forecast, Statistical and Instruments. Five further Divisions had to be established and staffed, viz. Navy, Army, Royal Air Force, Civil Aviation, and a little later, Airship. This last had the task of investigating the meteorological special problems associated with airships and of providing weather information along the proposed airship routes to Canada, India, Australia and New Zealand. It was a very active division and the worst tragedy that ever befell the Meteorological Office was the loss of its head, M. A. Giblett in the R 101 when she dived to earth and almost immediately became a flaming wreck, just after 2 a.m. on 5 October 1930 about two miles south of Beauvais. All but six of the fifty-four people on board lost their lives. This ended the development of airships and the Airship Division but its work was not wasted. An account of the investigations made and an indication of the significance of the results for meteorology is given in the Presidential Address by R. G. K. Lempfert to the Royal Meteorological Society in 1931.

    The Navy Division was eventually transferred to the Admiralty where it became the Naval Meteorological Service. Apart from these two changes Simpson’s organization of the Office continued unaltered, gradually expanding to meet the ever-increasing demands, especially of aviation. When the time came for him to retire he was able to hand over a smooth-running Office which, with the plans he had made for a War Meteorological Service, enabled his successor to face with confidence the calls which the war would and did make upon him when it came.

    Simpson participated fully in the work of the International Meteorological Organization, both directly as a member of the International Meteorological Committee and its Executive Council and as President of the Réseau Mondial and Bibliography Commissions; and indirectly through the members of his staff who served on Commissions of the Organization. Owing to increase in the 1930s in his previously slight deafness he found some difficulty in following the proceedings in meetings and conferences; consequently when in 1935 the retiring President of the Committee, Professor van Everdingen, asked permission to nominate him from the chair as the next President he refused, because he thought that, owing to his deafness, he could do better work as a member than as President. When he retired from the Committee in 1938, he was elected an Honorary Member, an honour previously given only to two past Presidents, Sir Napier Shaw and Professor van Everdingen.

    In 1927-1928 Simpson published three papers on terrestrial radiation, long wave radiation from earth and atmosphere. R. Mügge had published in 1926 a paper giving his calculated values of the terrestrial radiation escaping to space in different latitudes; the values were twice as great at the pole as at the equator, a surprising result. Simpson made detailed calculations assuming for simplicity that radiation in the atmosphere was only from water vapour and that it was ‘grey’. He arrived at the result, also surprising, that the outgoing radiation was the same in all latitudes from the equator to latitude 50°. At the pole it was 20°, less. It was clearly necessary to abandon the assumptions; the windows in the spectrum of water vapour, indicated in the researches of Rubens and Aschkinass and of Paschen, 1894-1898, and confirmed in more detail by Hettner, Abbot and Aldrich, could not be ignored, nor the variations in intensity at other wavelengths, and the amount of cloud, ozone, and carbon dioxide. Simpson, therefore, calculated his values again, allowing for these, except ozone. The new values gave an increase in the outgoing radiation of about 5%, from the equator to latitudes 20°-30° and then a decrease of nearly 10%, to latitude 70°. The average value 0.271 cal|cm-2|min-1 nearly balanced the effective incoming solar radiation, 0.278 cal|cm-2|min-1, which is the average radiation less 43% reflected back to space. By adjusting his values of outgoing radiation to get equality of the two averages he was able to deduce the excess of solar radiation from the equator to lat. 35° and of outgoing radiation thence to the pole; there followed the values of the rate of flow of heat polewards, greatest, 1.83 x 10-7 cal|cm-2|min-1, in latitude 40°. A very important conclusion which he drew from a consideration of the factor which would restore the balance between incoming and outgoing radiation if it were disturbed, was that the factor would be a change in cloud amount. An excess of incoming (solar) radiation would cause an increase in the amount of cloud and therefore of precipitation. Would this cause an extension of the polar ice? Is the explanation of ice ages to be found here?

    The suggestion fascinated him and he investigated the matter in a succession of papers from 1927 to 1934 and again, mainly due to new information about the prehistory of Africa, in 1957 and 1959. There was no doubt about the basic fact, that an increase in solar radiation on an earth with plenty of water would cause an increase in precipitation. That could not be controverted. Simpson’s achievement was to prove that in glaciated regions the first effect of the increased precipitation would be an extension of the ice sheet followed by a recession as the radiation increased further. When the radiation decreased again the consequent fall of temperature would reach a point where the precipitation changed from rain to snow and produce a second advance of the ice sheet. Thus one cycle of solar radiation would cause two cycles in the movement of the ice sheet though it would cause only one cycle in the region to which the ice sheet never extended. Simpson calculated that the polar ice sheet would not extend beyond an average latitude 55°. He also showed that the double oscillation in the spread of the ice was in reasonably good agreement with that found by the geologists, in particular for the Gunz, Mindel and Riss, Wurm glaciations in the Alps. There was also fair agreement with the corresponding two pluvial periods though he found discordance in two East African pluvials, Kanjeran and Gambian which came where there should have been only one. However, the evidence for a real break between the periods seemed not very strong and he suggested that they might be two halves of a single period. He assembled a large amount of geological fact and his explanation, of the problems it presented, was widely accepted as a great advance on any previously advanced.

    A year after his retirement on 2 September 1938 war broke out and Simpson immediately offered his services to his successor, Dr N. K. Johnson, who accepted the offer and asked him to take charge of Kew Observatory and administratively, of Eskdalemuir, Aberdeen and Lerwick Observatories and of the Edinburgh Office. His headquarters was Kew and the executive and administrative work left him some time for science and invention. With G. D. Robinson he completed the investigation of the potential gradient in thunderstorm clouds. With E. G. Dymond as chief designer he remodelled the unsatisfactory radiosonde and arranged its manufacture and calibration and distribution to the six launching stations in the British Isles and to some overseas, a much appreciated provider of upper air information during critical days. He modified the apparatus for measuring the electricity of rain and obtained values every minute of the charge on rain, the total electricity carried down by the rain, the potential gradient, the point-discharge current, and the rate of rainfall. He tabulated the values himself, 60,000 of each of the five elements, for the period October 1942 - May 1946, and prepared from them a memoir Atmospheric electricity in disturbed weather. His ‘war service’ at Kew, ended in April 1946 but he continued to work there, preparing the memoir for publication, until November 1947.

    In January 1940 he became President of the Royal Meteorological Society and, as the custom was, he delivered addresses to the Society in the following two Januaries. In the first, “The formation of cloud and rain’, he attacked a common assumption, based on observations of Kohler in Norway, that the nuclei, on which cloud drops are formed, are salt derived from sea-spray. He showed afterwards, in a separate paper, the impossibility of deriving enough particles to provide nuclei for the rain of the world. The generalization from Kohler’s observations not far from the sea had been unjustified. The second address was on ‘The electricity of cloud and rain’. It was a lucid and convincing account of a subject of which he was a master. Yet towards the end he confessed to ‘a feeling of dissatisfaction that forty years of investigation in several countries has produced such meagre results’.

    The last years of his retirement were spent at Westbury-on-Trym. He died after a short illness in hospital at Bristol on 1 January 1965.

    In preparing this memoir I have felt very grateful to him for the Personal Record which he deposited with the Royal Society. I have drawn freely on it. I am grateful, too, to Lady Simpson for help in some cases where I was in difficulty.

    E. Gold

    APPENDIX. HONOURS AND AWARDS, ETC.

    Public honours

    • 1919. C.B.E.
    • 1926. C.B.
    • 1935. K.C.B.

    Honorary degrees

    • 1914, D.Sc. Sydney, N.S.W.
    • 1925. Hon. LL.D. Aberdeen.

    Medals

    • 1913. H.M. the King’s Polar Medal ‘Antarctic 1910-13’.
    • 1913. ‘Medal for Antarctic Discovery’ presented by the Royal Geographical Society.
    • 1930. ‘Symon’s Gold Medal’ presented by the Royal Meteorological Society.
    • 1951. ‘Chree Medal and Prize’ presented by the Physical Society.

    Lectures

    • 1923. Halley Lecture: Oxford.
    • 1929. 20th Kelvin Lecture: Institute of Electrical Engineers.
    • 1929. 1st Alexander Pedler Lecture: delivered at Manchester.
    • 1930. 32nd Robert Boyle Lecture: Oxford.

    Scientific Societies — British

    Royal Society

    • 1915. Fellow.
    • 1924-1926. Served on the Council.
    • Served at different times on the following Committees:
      • Sectional Committee (Physics).
      • Gassiot Committee.
      • Library Committee.
      • Eclipse Committee.
      • National Committee for Geodesy and Geophysics (Chairman 1928-1933).
      • Government Grant Board. B.
      • Board of Visitors Royal Observatory, Greenwich.

    Royal Society of Edinburgh

    • 1947. Elected Honorary Fellow.

    British Association

    • 1914. Member.
    • 1927-1935. Served on Council.
    • 1925. President Section A.

    Royal Institution

    • 1924, Member.
    • 1928-1942. Manager for four periods.
    • 1940-1942. Vice-President.
    • 1923, 1932, 1937. Delivered three Friday evening discourses.

    Royal Meteorological Society

    • 1905. Fellow.
    • 1921-1944, Served on Council.
    • 1941 and 1942. President.

    Scientific Societies — Foreign

    • Elected Corresponding Member of the Following Foreign Scientific Societies:
    • 193]. Prussian Academy of Science.
    • 1932. State Russian Geographical Society.
    • 1934. Academy of Science, Vienna.
    • 1935. Gesellschaft der Wissenschaften, Göttingen.
    • 1953. Elected Honorary Member American Meteorological Society.

    Official Advisory Bodies

    Aeronautical Research Committee (Air Ministry).

    • 1924-1946. Radio Research Board (D.S.I.R.).

    BIBLIOGRAPHY

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    2. 1902. On the electrical resistance of bismuth to alternating currents in a magnetic field. Phil. Mag. (6), 4, 554.
    3. 1903. Über den Volta-Effekt. Phys. Z. 4, 480.
    4. 4, 1903. On charging through ion absorption and its bearing on the Earth’s permanent negative charge. Phil. Mag. (6), 6, 589.
    5. 1904. Über die Ursache des normalen atmosphärischen Potentialgefälles und der negativen Erdladung. Phys. Z. 5, 325.
    6. 1904. Über das normale elektrische Feld der Erde. Phys. Z. 5, 734.
    7. 1904. Atmospherical radio-activity in high latitudes. Proc. Roy. Soc. 73, 209.
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    11. 1906. Ist der Staub in der Atmosphäre geladen. Phys. Z. 7, 521.
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    Climate modeling fraud

    " The data does not matter... We're not basing our recommendations on the data; we're basing them on the climate models. "...