Wednesday 23 October 2019

Climate Model "acid test"

In chemistry the term acid test means a basic test which gives one precise information. A bit like a flame test tells you whether a substance contains calcium, sodium, copper or iron. Hoping you did flame tests at high school, so you know what I'm on about!

I've had much difficulty communicating with the climate faithful (those poor souls who've lost their minds to climate hysteria). Over very basic things. For example, when I talk about basic climate models I mean, for example, the model of Manabe and Wetherald, 1967, or one of Jim Hansen's models. Most of them published in science journals. I don't mean computer code from a General Circulation Model. Because I'm a computer programmer and I know it's senseless to reverse engineer computer code to try to work out the coder's intention.

I going to deal with this ambiguity about what basic climate models mean by proposing the climate model acid test™. I will propose to the climate faithful, that we go online, find one of these basic climate models, and we do a textual analysis; collecting all basic assumptions and predictions made. Then look for the science behind those basic assumptions. For eample, when they say "more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere makes the atmosphere more opaque to infrared". Let's look for the basic scientific studies showing this. If the climate modeler says: "more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere results in less out-going longwave radiation energy emitted to space", then this too is a clear, simple, assumption, or prediction, which must be verified and quantified by basic experiment. Eventually, by finding all these assumptions and prediction we can gather a set of basic experiments. We look at the results of experiments to check whether predictions match reality. If we find an assumptions, or predictions, not matched by reality then we have fake science. I won't say 'wrong science'. It's wrong too, but the characteristic fault of it is it's fake. Fake science is easy to find. The acid test for fake science is bad empirical studies.

The point of the climate model acid test is not to win believers to my side. It is to show naive people how science should be done; how genuine skeptics should think.

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