Saturday, 31 December 2022

Social Contagion

Social contagion is a theory about how certain new ideas and memes spread in society. For example "trans kids", or "I think I was born in the wrong body". Back before 2012 there were hardly any 'trans kids' anywhere. Two years later, in 2014, they are all over the internet. A new identify fashion bloomed for a certain kind of progressive youth - especially young women. Time and again, when these trans youths are interviewed, we find they developed their new identity online. In particular: often on Tumblr, within a closed group of like-minded peers.

Many people, such as Jonathan Haidt (see: The Righteous Mind) blame the Internet itself for social contagion, the growth of divisive ideas, and increasing political polarization in society.

What promotes extremism?

1. One implication is that the Internet divides us against each other because it enables polarized, extremist forums to propagate. For example: I was a member of at least one Internet forum which specifically excluded people based on arbitrary criteria. In particular I was a member of an energy discussion forum which excluded other people (who discussed energy, and wanted to join) on the basis that the other person was too republican, libertarian or not progressive enough!

Some people imply that the cure for social contagion is more Internet censorship and control. Presumably banning extremists will enable reasonable progressives to discuss among themselves to arrive at reasonable conclusions? [Many progressives certainly seem to act as if this were so!]

Contra to this growth in extremism argument, I say extremist groups have always existed and always will. Before the Internet we had physical discussion groups, clubs, societies, political parties.

With more internet censorship many critics of new ideas, such as 'trans kids' were censored and banned.

I think the point of "social contagion" is that the new meme being promoted often has a built-in censorship meme too. Consider GM corn with the Bt gene added - making it resistant to insects. Insects kill off wild competitors, so the GM plant quickly grows to become the dominant mono-culture on the farm (a good thing). Likewise with woke ideas. Censorship kills off competing ideas enabling a new idea to grow with nothing inhibiting it.

When we accept one of these woke memes we also accept the necessity to censor heterodox thinkers and non-believers; such censorship is part of the same package of ideas. Without censorship a bad meme cannot multiply as it will be exposed for the gibberish it almost always is. Censorship enables bad memes to quickly spread online.

Q: how is this censorship enabled?

A: Woke memes are often victim memes: "If we don't censor - terrible things will happen to victims". Hence the outlandish claims:

  • words are violence
  • people refuting woke are "hateful"
  • those who don't want expensive renewable energy are DESTROYing the planet.
  • those opposing race "equity" policies are "white supremacists", AKA racists (even when they're black!). Because woke is anti-racist, therefore everyone criticising woke must be anti- anti-racist, AKA: racist!

So Helen Joyce is right about defamation. The woke are intrinsically defamatory because defamation, and demonization of opponents is intrinsic to how these new extremist memes spread. Accusations of evil enable censorship, cancel culture and growth of irrational mono-cultures.

Advice?

Unless I try to answer my own question I'll feel I've stolen your time. So, if my questions is how to we stop this extremist, censorious, cancel culture in society? I can only cite evidence in my life. I became far more rational after I studied philosophy. Learning all the isms didn't help: Marx, Freud, existentialism, pomo - did not help me. This did:

  • Learning debating skills. Recognizing and avoiding philosophical fallacies
  • Understanding evidence-based arguments; and how to recognize good and bad evidence; including good and bad statistical evidence. How to distinguish good from fake science.
  • Advocating for free-speech.

These are the key skills a person must learn to become rational. Rationality is a skill; it's not an innate trait of humanity. You are not born rational. Begin with a book on philosphical fallacies. So that you can recognise when people who use them to promote their (bad) ideas. Prefer free-speech advocates, but we don't really care to give free-speech to pornographers but care for free speech when debating politics and social theory. We must support free-speech in general because we don't want judges and politicans deciding what to ban. That's why pornographers get free speech too. Recognize evidence. Learn basic scientific theory such that one understands what scientific laws are; and what makes a scientific theory. How such theories are validated and falsified by experiment and observation. Know basic statistics; enougth to know when statistics are misused. So: I'm giving no advice regarding politics, economics, social theory, human rights, nor even psychology. No need to learn any isms. A lot of advice regarding how to recognize and avoid bad arguments.

Friday, 30 December 2022

Social Justice

The phrase "social justice" draws its roots from Christian theology, with the first noted use occurring in the early 1840s in "Theoretical Treatise of Natural Right Based on Fact", 1840-43, by Luigi Taparelli. Taparelli was an Italian Jesuit priest writing during the rise of Risorgimento, a 19th-century Italian nationalist movement, and debates around the unification of Italy. This work, was translated into German, French, and Spanish in the nineteenth century, but never into English!

Natural Right is a synonym for Natural Law. Much of the European Enlightenment (~1640 to ~1790) criticised and deconstructed previous Christian Natural Law; it a major preoccupation of the earlier (17th century) philosophes. Ealier Christian Natural Law (17th century) had become a totalizing conception of the world and humanity's place in it. The Christian conception of Natural Law was whittled down by the philosophes as they compared each part of it with empirical reality to refute Natural Law which contradicted reality until there was little left over. So 50 years after the Enlightenment ended (1840's) it's fitting that Christians would revise Natural Law, and base the revision "on fact". AKA: provide an empirical foundation for this Natural Law: Theoretical Treatise of Natural Right Based on Fact

It's weird that a 180 year old book giving the intellectual roots for social justice is still not translated into English!, despite current popularity of social justice; dominating Left and Institutional thought today. This is slack. I'd have thought there'd be no limit to wannabe translators! A neutral observer might even think The Powers That Be don't want us plebs to read about the origin social justice. Kind of like how the Church made sure plebs were unable to read The Christian Bible for centuries by preventing its translation into everyday languages.

Friday, 2 December 2022

Climate alarmist evidence = models based on models, based on models

Models all the way down

In a dispute on YouTube over climate (Why the sun CANNOT be behind global warming | by Simon Clark) I complained that the explanation given lacked empirical support, and that other factors are also responsible for atmospheric warming; so one cannot prioritise one cause over another without empirical support. Later 4 citations of studies were given, as 'evidence'. But when I looked into the 4 studies I found the first 3 were entirely model based. This is very typical of how climate alarmists reason. They actually think the models they write of how the atmosphere supposedly generates a greenhouse gas effect are 'settled science'. So settled that they can subsititute models for data at every level.

I ask for empirical studies, you give me model studies; our reasoning is incommensurable.

'Evidence'

2006) The first paper, Hansen et al. opens with: "We use a global climate model to compare the effectiveness of many climate forcing agents for producing climate change" <- so no empirical research - just the opinions and biases of climate alarmist modellers.

2010) 2nd paper, Schmidt et al, is more promising: "we review the existing literature and use the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE radiation module to provide an overview of the role of each absorber at the present-day and under doubled CO2" <- ModelE eh? Surprise!, it's another model: https://www.giss.nasa.gov/tools/modelE/

2016) The 3rd: by Shine et al.: "New calculations of the radiative forcing (RF) are presented for the three main well-mixed greenhouse gases, methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide." <- The calculations are done by modelling

2020) 4th, Sherwood et al.: "We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record" <- this is the only paper of the 4 which uses actual data, but the data will not do. The climate record is disputed. A sensible solution to this is for greenhouse-gas-climate fans to figure out a way to empirically measure the radiative climate forcing they believe in. This has been attempted over clear skies; so my request is not fanciful.

The 4 papers presented as empirical evidence are models piled on models piled on models. The 'evidence' is effectively hidden or secret because most of them are computer code. Even were I able to see the code, I'd need to reverse engineer it to understand it. This code (unlike my clean code) is probably dirty and oblique; because most computer code isn't very well written. But that is not my main complaint: I basically dispute the working of those models. Althought they never tell us what their models are, we do actually know something about climate alarmist greenhouse gas model (AKA: GHGE). Falsification of the GHGE | GHGE is not a scientific concept

Citations

  1. : Efficacy of climate forcings. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2006.
  2. : Attribution of the present-day total greenhouse effect. Journal of Geophysical Research. 2010.
  3. : Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 2016.
  4. : An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence. Reviews of Geophysics. 2020.

Thursday, 24 November 2022

Marxian myth: "determination ‘in the last instance’ by the economy"

For example read this essay by Louis Althusser from 1962. Althusser's essay relates to the relationship between superstructure (ideas, ideologies, and institutions producing such) and the base. We can call the 'base' the economy if we want to (as Marxists do) but it really refers to the material base, as it relates to an ideological superstructure. It seems Althusser, and many Marxists, believed this base was determinant. Not always; but always in the 'last instance'. This belief is a facet of Marxian materialism; Marx famously called himself a materialist, to counter-pose his ideas against the establishment; with their faith in traditional institutions such as religion, family, law, philosophy and education; aspects which Marx might claim to be ideological.

I'd argue this is a false understanding of how Marxists really see the human condition. Dont't take a Marxist at face value; by what they say. Judge them on what they do. For Marxists, politics is determinant; in the first and last instance. Seen Engels: 'The Role of Force in History', 1887. I believe this paradox of the chicken versus egg (what is determinat - ideas or material existance?). The Marxian myth of "determination ‘in the last instance’ by the economy" is simply a rule for prioritising matter; and so, justifying calling oneself a 'materialist'.

Tuesday, 8 November 2022

Fascist | NAZI

History:

The term "Fascism" was first used in 1915 by members of Mussolini's movement, the Fasces of Revolutionary Action. Mussolini having just been expelled from the PSI { Italian Socialist Party } because he supported world war one, WW1.

In his 1916 book in Germany, Johann Plenge replaced the "ideas of 1789" [rights of man, democracy, individualism and liberalism] of the French Revolution, with the "ideas of 1914": duty, discipline, law and order, which he argued were the basis for "National Socialism".

The German Workers' Party, DAP, began in 1919 (5th Jan), less than 2 months after WW1 ended. In July 1919, Hitler, still in the German Army, was appointed intelligence agent in a reconnaissance commando unit of the German Army to influence other soldiers and to investigate the DAP. Hitler joined the DAP in late autumn 1919 as its 55th member. He quickly became the Party's most influential speaker bringing thousands to its ranks, and months after he joined, on 24 Feb 2020, the DAP renamed itself: the National Socialist German Workers' Party (NSDAP).

In the German case, it's fair to say the NSDAP (Nazi Party) was created to draw workers away from communism and into völkisch nationalism. For example: before it was renamed to "National Socialist German Workers' Party", Hitler had suggested the "Social Revolutionary Party" - entirely dropping "socialism"!

In the early 1930s NAZIs and German Communists (KPD - controlled by Russia) cooperated together against the largest socialist party in Germany: the SPD, who, back then, were the largest Marxist party outside Russia and consistently the most popular party in German federal elections from 1890 onward. Back then, the Soviet Russia rountinely termed every Labour or Social Democrat Party not under its control "social fascists". Likewise so did the Stalinist Communist Parties it controlled. The Nazi - KPD cooperation ended in 1932. Immediately afterward, the KPD created Anti-Fa.

Comment:

The difference between Fascism, and Communism was centred on their attitude to Nationalism. Nationalism is key to Fascism, but, in theory, is downplayed by Communism in favour of 'internationalism'. Yet in practice, communists in power have often discriminated against certain ethnicities or nationalisms; in favour of their favoured ones.

In the Italian and German cases Fascism began as a new kind of socialism, with explicit anti-Capitalist ideas. Therefore, calling any non-socialist, liberal or pro-Capitalist a "Fascist" is dishonest slander.

Monday, 7 November 2022

Evil

I wrote this in response to Colin Wright's post: Understanding ‘Evil’

Colin bemoans the theistic application of good versus evil; but admits in the end that some ideas are so bad as to be 'evil'. We can't get rid of the word 'good', because there's no suitable alternative. 'Evil' is something else. In addition to the its theistic use; there's the problem of binary thinking and how the duality of good/evil force us into that mindset; which is, actually, a trap for both sides! This then leads to a kind of fanaticism; which even liberals and middle to the road political types can suffer from. So: there's more than one rationale to be against the word 'evil'.

But: 1. Can we rid ourselves of the word 'evil'?

I guess we can, but we just end up using synonyms which have the same effect. Synonyms such as fascist, climate denier, flat earther, communist, Tory 'scum', TERF, racist, Trumpist. The particular dehumanization used depends on one's politics. So we can rid ourselves of evil; but not really. The left own more of these synonyms than the right.

If not, then: 2. When should we use the word 'evil' in politics?

I can call something 'evil' when I disagree so fundamentally with a policy or idea that no negotiation is possible. I can never concede that a person has a real homunculus inside their head telling them that their authentic gender is not their biological sex. I've seen where that idea leads. It leads to doctors associations (such as the U.S. AAP) mandating ONLY one line of treatment for gender dysphoria; demonising therapy and counselling as 'conversion therapy', and lobbying to change U.S. federal law to mandate 'affirmation' as the ONLY allowed response to transgender ideas; leading to hormone blockers, hormones and surgery. I am not negotiating with them. They are wrong. Their idea is evil.

Nor can I negotiate with climate alarmists, not anyone who promotes the idea of the greenhouse gas effect. As shown elsewhere, the greenhouse gas effect is wrong. It leads to harmful, anti-human polices such as net zero. It's already cost the world at least $2 trillion. It is an evil idea. Those promoting it will not debate it. They explicitly refuse to debate; much like transgender fanatics. I think we have a clue as to what evil is here.

I won't negotiate with them. They won't negotiate with me. Surely I'm just their mirror; lost in binary thinking? No. I will debate them. They won't debate me. Even when I'm with the strongest side I will always debate; because I'm a democrat, anti-elitist, and I believe I know how to debate without throwing stones.

Conclusion: we should not call people evil. Their deeds and ideas may be evil but they, themselves, are potentially redeemable. If that's the residual Christian speaking in me then so be it.

Friday, 28 October 2022

The rediscovery of the will (reblog)

Reblog: German original | LIBET EXPERIMENTS | 2015

A good 30 years ago, the neurophysiologist Benjamin Libet discovered that the brain initiates movements before the person consciously decides to do so. Since then, philosophers and brain researchers have been arguing about the scope of this finding. Recent experiments show: deep doubts about free will were premature!

Author: Amadeus Magrabi is a cognitive scientist and is currently doing his PhD in neuroscience at the Charité Berlin and at the Berlin School of Mind and Brain (in 2015).

When it comes to free will, you almost only hear extreme views. On the one hand there are the neuro-revolutionaries who dismiss our everyday ideas about responsibility and guilt as scientifically proven illusions. On the other hand, there are the traditionalists who are convinced of human freedom and cannot understand what any laboratory experiments should change about it. And now there's a third group, the "annoyed ones," who can no longer hear the seemingly endless debate about it. But a lot has happened: New empirical results seem to rehabilitate free will.


AT A GLANCE

CONSCIOUSLY OR UNCONSCIOUSLY?

  • Because processes in the brain pave the way for our actions before we consciously make the decision to do so, some researchers explained free will as an illusion.
  • However, recent evidence suggests that neural preparation does not preclude behavior from being based on conscious motives.
  • It has not yet been clarified exactly how thinking and acting are intertwined.

A good starting point for many philosophical discussions is our intuitive experience. What do we mean by free will? By that we mean a certain way of making decisions. For example, when I plan my vacation, I look at my options: how much money and time do I have available? Do I rather want to relax or experience something? Am I after the beach, nature or culture? Apparently speaking of free will only makes sense if we have several options in a situation and can decide in favor of one of them by consciously weighing up reasons. If free will exists, the inner monologue we carry with us should guide our choices.

On the other hand, there is the concern that other, unconscious processes control our behavior and that consciousness only constructs justifications afterwards. So the question of free will is: do conscious considerations determine our decisions, or are they caused by unconscious processes?

For a long time philosophers settled such problems among themselves. That changed drastically when University of San Francisco physiologist Benjamin Libet published the results of his laboratory experiments in the early 1980s . Libet gave his subjects the simple task of flexing their hand. However, they should decide for themselves when to do so. The participants then gave a record of the exact time at which they had decided to take part. A clock that they watched during the experiment was helpful.

Neural initiation

Libet compared the time at which the subjects made their decision with their brain activity, which he registered using electroencephalography (EEG). Other brain researchers had previously discovered that before a movement is carried out, a certain activity pattern occurs over the supplementary motor cortex, a so-called readiness potential. Libet asked herself: Which comes first – this potential for readiness or the subjects' decision? Is the hand movement initiated by conscious decision or by unconscious brain processes?

As it turned out, the participants made their decision on average about 200 milliseconds before the movement. However, the readiness potential began about 550 milliseconds before that; it thus occurred 350 milliseconds before the decision to act. This result caused astonishment: Was the decision already made before the person consciously made it? The feeling that our thoughts determine our actions would then probably be an illusion - caused by hidden neuronal processes. It was said that not the ego, but our brain made the decisions. But why do we often think so hard about our actions if they don't have any effect anyway?

The criticism was not long in coming. Some researchers complained that Libet's subjects had no real alternatives because they were only supposed to move their hand or do nothing. In a 1999 EEG study, neuroscientists led by Patrick Haggard from University College London examined what happens when subjects can choose whether they want to lift their right or left finger. The researchers found an activity pattern similar to Libet's, called the lateralized readiness potential, that also occurred prior to the conscious decision.

Free will is one of the strongest human intuitions of all . No wonder, then, that the findings of neurophysiology got heated

In 2008, a team led by John-Dylan Haynes and Chun Siong Soon from the Max Planck Institute for Human Cognitive and Brain Sciences in Leipzig investigated whether these results could be confirmed using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). In this series of experiments, too, the subjects had two options to choose from, and again neural activity patterns announced the upcoming decision. While the time span between the start of action-related brain activity and the decision in the EEG studies was still in the millisecond range, Haynes and Soon used fMRI to register activations in the frontopolar and parietal cortex that even preceded the decision by several seconds.

The neurosurgeon Itzhak Fried checked this finding using electrodes that he implanted in the brains of test subjects. Such a method is usually only used in animal experiments, but Fried examined epilepsy patients who needed such electrodes to treat their condition anyway. This procedure also seemed to confirm Libet's results.

Free will is one of the strongest human intuitions of all. So it's no wonder that these findings got heated. Some wanted to save free will at all costs and simply denied the relevance of neuroscientific studies; the others raised themselves up to become prophets of a new, deterministic image of man.

Two arguments keep popping up in this context: On the one hand, the measured brain activity cannot reliably predict the respective actions of the person. The specific patterns only increase the probability of one or the other decision, but do not determine it. The predictive power of the fMRT data in Haynes and Soon's work was around 60 percent, i.e. not very far above the random level. This suggests that the patterns may not reflect the decision itself, but some sub-process or type of preparation that has only some impact.

NNot at all trivial | Even the occurrence of simple hand movements causes neuroscientists and philosophers to have trouble explaining.

For example, if you could tell from my brain activity that I like Vietnamese food, that would certainly help predict my restaurant visits. You would also find out that I actually visit Vietnamese restaurants more often than other restaurants. But that does not mean that this preference is the only relevant factor for my actions. Other things like the price or the friendliness of the service also play a role - and sometimes make me decide differently. Similarly, the brain activity in Libet's experiments and the follow-up studies could reflect an influencing factor, without the decisions being fixed by it and the persons concerned not being able to act differently.

The second criticism is that the laboratory scenarios were not real decisions at all. Imagine you are asked to choose a right or left index finger motion. Which side would you choose? There doesn't seem to be any good reason why you should move one finger and not the other. The decision has no special consequences or anything to do with your personal values ​​or desires. You will certainly not regret it later and think: crap, if only I had used the other finger! In comparison with real decisions in everyday life – for example, which job vacancy we want to apply for or who we want to marry – an important quality is missing here: personal relevance, which makes it necessary to weigh different reasons against each other.

Coincidence is involved

According to Aaron Schurger and Stanislas Dehaene of the National Research Institute INSERM in Paris, even random fluctuations in brain activity can swell into an impulse that triggers the action in question in weakly motivated movements. For such "pseudo-decisions" as in Libet's experiments, a conscious act of will is possibly not required at all. Actual action is likely to be neuronally initiated in a different way. In addition, investigations by a research team led by Alexander Schlegel from 2013 and 2015 showed that readiness potentials can occur even without a conscious impulse to act.

Taking these concerns seriously, there isn't much left that the Libet experiments and their successors can tell us about free will. However, psychological behavioral studies that do not require brain scans and electrode measurements are increasingly being included in the current debate. One example is the work of Yale University social psychologist John Bargh.

In one of his experiments, subjects first had to solve a language task. They were presented with a number of words and asked to sort them in such a way that grammatically correct sentences came out. For example, "finds", "immediately", "it", "he" becomes the sentence "he finds it immediately". The subjects were told that they wanted to test their language talents - but in fact the experimenters divided the participants into three groups: the first group was given words related to politeness, the second group those related to impoliteness, and the third group got neutral words.

The subjects were then asked to contact the experimenter. But they were just talking and didn't stop when the participants had been waiting for a long time. The study measured how many people interrupted the researchers' conversation within ten minutes.

Studies show that conscious considerations determine our decisions only to a limited extent. There is also evidence of an unconscious influence

You can probably guess what came out: Two out of three participants who had previously read rude words interrupted the experimenters; in the group with the polite expressions, however, only 16 percent. And the neutral group was in between at 38 percent. As a later survey revealed, none of the subjects had recognized a connection between the language task and their decision to interrupt the experimenter.

There are almost countless experiments that have yielded similar results. What does that tell us? According to such studies, if free will means that conscious considerations alone determine our decisions, that is not the case. Finally, there is a proven unconscious influence: whether or not we interrupt other people's conversations should be based on our values, our self-image and our assessment of the situation - but a completely irrelevant language test?

We spontaneously feel uncomfortable with the thought that such trifles guide our decisions without us even realizing it. Of course, that doesn't mean that our thinking doesn't play a role in decision-making. But there is some evidence that actions are not entirely controlled by conscious processes.

Is it so important for free will that we are always aware of everything? It all depends on the relationship between conscious and unconscious processes. If the latter opposes conscious intentions, we would say that it restricts our free will. But if the unconscious is to be seen more as the executive organ of conscious decision-making and both are rowing in the same direction, so to speak, free will does not seem to be endangered.

Unconsciously out of habit

In everyday life, conscious thoughts play a greater role when we find ourselves in situations that are new to us. We then turn our attention to the decision problems and weigh all the arguments against each other to make the best possible choice. On the other hand, when we are in familiar situations, unconscious processes take over and our actions become automatic. It could be that our conscious thoughts partially prepare the unconscious and thus help determine how we behave. Consequently, decisions that are unconscious could also be viewed as consciously controlled in a broader sense.

But how the conscious relates to the unconscious and how both interact with each other, no one knows exactly. Consciousness remains one of the greatest mysteries in science because it is difficult to find an objective and reliable way to measure it. For the time being, strong statements about free will are therefore difficult.

In all of this, one should not forget that there are many intuitive notions about free will that are scientifically untenable. For example, we have the subjective impression that we are "uncaused polluters", which means: We could indeed set causal chains in motion with our decisions, but our decisions themselves are virtually not caused by anything. According to this, decisions would have to take place in a kind of abstract space, detached from the laws of nature. For science, on the other hand, the causal principle applies, according to which everything has a cause and an effect. Therefore, from this point of view, decisions must also have causes.

On closer inspection, it is not at all desirable that decisions have no cause. After all, we want our actions to be based on good arguments and not just fall out of the blue.

In addition, a free choice is sometimes required not to be influenced by upbringing, childhood experiences, or genetic predisposition. Here, too, one can say from the perspective of research: We most likely do not have this kind of freedom. But even if free will means that conscious considerations determine our decisions, then this question is far from settled.

Given the complexity of the situation, one should not expect a simple either/or answer to the question of free will. Instead, a concept would be appropriate in which one gradually speaks of more or less freedom. Thus, when we are wide awake and thinking well, we achieve a greater degree of free will than when we are tired, stressed, or drunk.

The situation remains tricky, as with so many philosophical questions. Studies suggest that unconscious processes are more involved in our decisions than it appears. Nor are they always consistent with our conscious intentions. But what role consciousness plays in decision-making remains unclear for the time being.

Wednesday, 26 October 2022

Stop saying theory

Stop calling bad and unfalsifiable ideas 'theories'.

Please use the word theory only for scientifically validated ideas.

Words to use in place of 'theory':

approach, argument, assumption, concept, conjecture, doctrine, dogma, feeling, formularization, guess, guesswork, hunch, idea, ideology, impression, outlook, position, postulate, premise, presumption, proposal, provision, rationale, scheme, shot, speculation, supposition, surmise, system, thesis, understanding

If it's an idea in social theory, call it an ideology. That will really wind up academics who claim to be doing 'theory'. If it's an idea in science call it a conjecture.

Sunday, 23 October 2022

Re: "Heidegger's attractivness to Nazism".

In the Jordan Peterson Podcast, he interviews John Vervaeke. They talk about "Heidegger's attractivness to Nazism". Here's my take.

Nazism was a return to nature in ideas; and profoundly Malthusian. We see the Malthusian aspects of Nazism in their:

  • belief that economic parity for Germans with US Americans is absolutely limited by the area of agricultural land available to Germany. Hence the Nazi desire for more land by conquest.
  • Nazi eugenics
  • obsessions with renewable power
  • support given them from German environmentalists (AKA conservationists)

The modern Green movement are also intrinsically driven by Malthusian and anti-human ideas. One such common anti-humanism in both Nazism and the modern Green movement is authoritarian, or anti-democratic politics.

Anti-Democratic Politics

The form of authoritarianism, or anti-democracy is totally different with each; Modern Environmentalism is 'soft' authoritarianism; not hard. It is anti-democratic: it forces its policies on us by by-passing and subverting democracy. Greens refusal to engage with democracy leads them to support authoritarianism. Witnessed by how they by-pass the will of the people at every stage of politics. By supporting the transfer of power to NGOs, trans-GOs (such as the UN and EU), and GOs (e.g the US EPA), pass laws with no democratic debate nor mandate (E.g. the UK Climate Change Act), ... Societal support for modern environmentalism is surface deep. Hardly anyone votes for them; we have more important concerns. Because they get so little support in democratic institutions the greens by-pass democracy to drive their agenda forward behind the scenes. By capturing institutions, and politicians. In debate, Greens trash freedom of Speech, and are rabidly censorious. The climate movement refuse to debate anyone who's not in with their 'climate crisis', and they have NEVER debated their real political oppenents: people like me who see environmentalism for the social cancer it is. They drive their agenda forward by capturing politicians; not by arguing for their ideas at the grass-roots, or electorally. So the environmentalist disdain for debate is easily understood. It's just pragmatic politics. Green politics is power in action: Heidegger come full-circle to bite his tail: with greens we see the embrace of power for its own sake - because embracing democracy is far harder.

Pan-Malthusianism

In this blog I use Malthusian in the wider sense. In a pan-Malthusian sense. It is not only the belief that population growth will outstrip food; but a belief that all resources are limited, and are under direct assult from humanity. It's also a belief that growth is hindered by pollution and pollution-like processes. So 'climate change' is a Malthusian derived idea: pan-Malthusian. Here the resource we're using up is a negative one! According to climate activists, humanity is putting more carbon dioxide - a so-called greenhouse gas into the atmosphere; and this waste or pollution (their words) is burning the planet.

Earth ‘is literally on fire
-- UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres

Fighting The 'Common Enemy'

Consider the challenge of collapsing an industrialized civilization. This is where carbon dioxide (CO2) becomes the focus. The civilization the Club opposed comprised nations built on and driven by the energy provided by fossil fuels. It’s reasonable to compare these nations to a car, the very symbol of all they detest. You can stop a car engine by cutting off the fuel supply, but that would be extremely difficult and elicit quick anger in a country, as anger when fuel prices jump demonstrate. However, you can also stop a car engine by blocking the exhaust. Transfer that idea to nations and show that CO2, the byproduct of combustion of fossil fuels, was causing runaway, catastrophic, global warming to achieve the goal. What nastier image than the belching car exhaust or the even more dramatic chimneys of industry? On page 75 of their Report for the Club, The First Global Revolution, Alexander King and Bertrand Schneider wrote:
In searching for a common enemy against whom we can unite, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages famine and the like, would fit the bill. In their totality and their interaction these phenomena do constitute a common threat which must be confronted by everyone together. But in designating these dangers as the enemy, we fall into the trap, which we have already warned readers about, namely mistaking symptoms for causes. All these dangers are caused by human intervention in natural processes, and it is only through changed attitudes and behaviour that they can be overcome. The real enemy then is humanity itself.
-- Report for the Club, The First Global Revolution, Alexander King and Bertrand Schneider

-- Tim Ball
 

Constipating Energy by blocking the exhaust

Energy is regarded by many people as the master resource in society. Arguably:

  1. The most important reason why the Germans lost WWII so quickly was because they lacked access to petroleum.
  2. The success and expansion of the British Empire in the 19th century was founded on the application of the new energy resource: James Watt's (1763–1775) improved version of steam power.
  3. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, was feasible because the anti-Western alliance of Greens, Lefties, Malthusian Billionaires, and foriegn powers had crippled Western Europe with anti-energy policies. Had Western Europe not been dependent on Russian energy supplies, the Ukraine war would never have happened.

Greens' ultimate goal is degrowth. Because they view the world in terms of conflict between humanity and the environment. For greens: stopping humanity equals saving the Environment.

The Greens say constipating rather than blocking the exhaust to refer to their political strategy of rationing and reducing energy use. For example constipating nuclear power by hyping the threat of used nuclear fuel.

Friends of the Earth began in 1969. They were a think tank, and brain-stormed green political strategies. They're mainly responsible for the constipating energy policies pursued by Modern Environmentalism. constipating nuclear power by hyping the issue to used nuclear fuel and turning a non-issue into a policy. The UK Climate Change Act, 2008, was authored by Friends of The Earth.

Citations and Notes

  1. "Heidegger's attractivness to Nazism"
  2. Ideas of John Holdren (Barak Obama's Science Czar)
  3. The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science, Tim Ball, PhD

Friday, 21 October 2022

Ggender dysphoria FAQ

Activists: promoting transgenderism (for example demonstrators, are NOT typically transgender themselves!; and are overwhelmingly young, leftwing, women. Actual activists who are transgender tend to be autogynephilic men (AKA: 'transwomen').

Medics and Physicians: tend to take transsexuals at their word. Often prescribing hormone blockers, hormones, and even surgery with no counselling nor therapy. In fact, inverting meaning, they often call counselling and therapy conversion therapy.

Psychologists: tend to be more skeptical, of reassigning sexuality; especially with ROGD.

Types:

  1. Homosexual : Begin as cissy boys or tomboy girls from a young age. By identifying as the opposite sex; rather than the same sex. They are NOT generally sexually arosed by cross-dressing (transvestism); the men often take a femme role in sex. Unlike the non-Homosexuals (autogynephiles); it does not progress (deepen) past adolescence, and may even decline. In terms of sexuality; boys/males are attracted to heterosexual men. Women/girls (as butch lesbians) will usually be attracted to other women. Not every cissy or tomboy develops a trans-gender condition.
  2. Autogynephilia: (auto = self, gyne = female, philia = desire; AGP); They are nearly all hetero- bi- or a-sexual. Making up the majority of transwomen (66%+); and nearly all transvestites who get a kink out of cross-dressing. He is sexually aroused by the thought of himself as a female. The target of their eroticism is their own self. Narcissism on steroids? It is a progressive identity. It begins as a mastorbatory activity in youth; later the subject imagines himself as woman.
    Q: [ Is autoandrophilia a thing too? A: Barely: A tiny number of women, are turned on by the idea of being a gay man and having gay sex with other gaymen. ]
  3. Rapid Onset Gender Dysphoria, ROGD: Mostly women, mostly heterosexual. Onset is during adolescence. It's only been seen in the last decade. In 2014, it became an epidemic. This condition often developed when kids, on the Internet (such as Tumblr) developed a lefty, circle of friends, who validated all their none-heterosexual expression, for example, by suggesting the kid was 'living in the wrong body'. Many people in this subgroup who transitioned have since detransitioned back.

Terms

Progress: a psychological condition which develops and deepens with age.

Citations: What is Gender Dysphoria? With Dr Ray Blanchard | Life & Research of Dr. Ray Blanchard

hormone blockers: are often given to transsexuals during puberty to block normal (typical) sexual development. They are irreversalble.

hormones: Testosternone (male hormone) is given to transmen (AKA women), Estrogen (female hormone) is given to transwomen (AKA men).

Monday, 26 September 2022

107 Failed Climate Predictions

107 Failed Climate Predictions
  1. “Jay Wynne from the BBC Weather Centre presents reports for typical days in 2020, 2050 and 2080 as predicted by our experiment.”
    BBCs Climate Change Experiment
  2. “The latest runs are generally in favor of a milder than normal winter, especially over northern Europe.”
    — Forecasters Predict More Mild Winter for Europe, Reuters, Nov 09, 2012, FRANKFURT – European weather in the coming winter now looks more likely to be mild than in previous studies, German meteorologist Georg Mueller said in a monthly report.
  3. “By the year 2050 … temperatures will rise 1.5ÂşC to 2.5°C (summer) and 3°C (winter). … in the summer it will rain up to 40% less and in the winter up to 30% more.”
    — German Federal Department of Highways, 1 Sept 2010
  4. “Spring will begin in January starting in 2030.”
    — Die Welt, 30 Sept 2010
  5. “The scenarios of climate scientists are unanimous about one thing: In the future in Germany we will have to live with drier and drier summers and a lot more rain in the winters.”
    — Gerhard MĂĽller-Westermeier, German Weather Service (DWD), 20 May 2010
  6. “We’ve mostly had mild winters in which only a few cold months were scattered about, like January 2009. This winter is a cold outlier, but that doesn’t change the picture as a whole. Generally it’s going to get warmer, also in the wintertime.”
    — Gerhard MĂĽller-Westermeier, German Weather Service (DWD), 26 Jan 2010
  7. “Milder winters, drier summers: Climate study shows a need to adapt in Saxony Anhalt.”
    — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Press Release, January 10, 2010.
  8. “Harsh winters likely will be more seldom and precipitation in the wintertime will be heavier everywhere. However, due to the milder temperatures, it’ll fall more often as rain than as snow.”
    — Online-Atlas of the Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft, 2010
  9. “Clear climate trends are seen from the computer simulations. Foremost the winter months will be warmer all over Germany. Depending of CO2 emissions, temperatures will rise by up to 4°C, in the Alps by up to 5°C.”
    — Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 7 Dec 2009.
  10. “World leaders have 50 days to save the Earth from irreversible global warming.”
    — Oct 20, 2009, Gordon Brown UK Prime Minister (referring to the Copenhagen climate conference)
  11. “The climate model prognoses currently indicate that the following climate changes will occur: Increase in minimum temperatures in the winter.”
    — Chamber of Agriculture of Lower Saxony Date: 6 July 2009
  12. “It’s great that the government has decided to put together such a scientifically robust analysis of the potential impacts of climate change in the UK.”
    — Keith Allott, WWF-UK, 18 June 2009
  13. “ If your decisions depend on what’s happening at these very fine scales of 25 km or even 5 km resolution then you probably shouldn’t be making irreversible investment decisions now.”
    — Myles Allen, “one of the UK’s leading climate modellers”, Oxford University, 18 June 2009
  14. “While the increases in the springtime appear as rather modest, the (late)summer and winter months are showing an especially powerful warming trend.”
    — State Ministry of Environment, Agriculture and Geology, Saxony, p. 133, Schriftenreihe Heft 25/2009.
  15. “Rhineland-Palatinate, as will be the case for all of Central Europe, will be affected by higher than average warming rates and winters with snow disappearing increasingly.”
    — Prof. Dr. Hartmut Grassl, “internationally renowned meteorologist”, Director Emeritus, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 20 Nov 2008
  16. “More heat waves, no snow in the winter… Climate models… over 20 times more precise than the UN IPCC global models. In no other country do we have more precise calculations of climate consequences. They should form the basis for political planning… Temperatures in the wintertime will rise the most… there will be less cold air coming to Central Europe from the east…In the Alps winters will be 2°C warmer already between 2021 and 2050.”
    — Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, September 2, 2008.
  17. “The recent warm winters that Britain has experienced are a sign that the climate is changing.”
    — 2008 Dr. James Hansen of the Goddard Space Institute (NASA) on a visit to Britain
    [Two exceptionally cold winters followed. The 2009-10 winter may be the coldest experienced in the UK since 1683.]
  18. “you could potentially sail, kayak, or even swim to the North Pole by the end of the summer. Climate scientists say that the Arctic ice…is currently on track to melt sometime in 2008.”
    — June 2008, Ted Alvarez, Backpacker Magazine Blogs. [Shortly after this prediction was made, a Russian icebreaker was trapped in the ice of the Northwest Passage for a week.]
  19. “Not doing it will be catastrophic. We’ll be eight degrees hotter in ten, not ten but 30 or 40 years and basically none of the crops will grow. Most of the people will have died and the rest of us will be cannibals.”
    — April 2008, Media Mogul Ted Turner on Charlie Rose (On not taking drastic action to correct global warming) [Strictly speaking, this is not a failed prediction. It won’t be until at least 2048 that our church-going and pie-baking neighbors come after us for their noonday meal. But the prediction is so bizarre that it is included it here.]
  20. “Winter has gone forever and we should officially bring spring forward instead. … There is no winter any more despite a cold snap before Christmas. It is nothing like years ago when I was younger. There is a real problem with spring because so much is flowering so early year to year.”
    — Express, Dr Nigel Taylor, Curator of Kew Gardens, 8 Feb 2008
  21. “All climate simulations – global and regional – were carried out at the Deutschen Klimarechenzentrum [German Climate Simulation Center]. […] In the winter months the temperature rise is from 1.5°C to 2°C and stretches from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean Sea. Only in regions that are directly influenced by the Atlantic (Great Britain, Portugal, parts of Spain) will the winter temperature increase be less (Fig. 1).”
    — Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Press Release, Date: December 2007/January 2013.
  22. “Winters: wet and mild”
    — Bavarian State Ministry for Agriculture, presentation 23 Aug 2007
  23. “The past is no longer a guide to the future. We no longer have a stationary climate, …”Independent, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 27 Jul 2007
  24. “In the UK wetter winters are expected which will lead to more extreme rainfall, whereas summers are expected to get drier. However, it is possible under climate change that there could be an increase of extreme rainfall even under general drying.”
    — Telegraph, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 24 July 2007
  25. “Snowlines are going up in altitude all over the world. The idea that we will get less snow is absolutely in line with what we expect from global warming.”
    — WalesOnline, Sir John Houghton – atmospheric physicist, 30 June 2007
  26. “The new Germany will be characterized by dry-hot summers and warm-wet winters.”
    — Wilhelm Gerstengarbe and Peter Werner, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), March 2, 2007
  27. “Good bye winter… In the northern hemisphere the deviations are much greater according to NOAA calculations, in some areas up to 5°C. That has consequences says DWD meteorologist MĂĽller-Westermeier: When the snowline rises over large areas, the bare ground is warmed up even more by sunlight. This amplifies global warming. A process that is uncontrollable – and for this reason understandably arouses old childhood fears: First the snow disappears, and then winter.”
    — Die Zeit, 16 Mar 2007
  28. “It is consistent with the climate change message. It is exactly what we expect winters to be like – warmer and wetter, and dryer and hotter summers. …the winter we have just seen is consistent with the type of weather we expect to see more and more in the future.”
    — Wayne Elliott, Met Office meteorologist, BBC, 27 Feb 2007
  29. “Consequences and impacts for regional agriculture: Hotter summers, milder plus shorter winters (palm trees!). Agriculture: More CO2 in the air, higher temperatures, foremost in winter.”
    — Dr. Michael Schirmer, University of Bremen, presentation of 2 Feb 2007
  30. “Ice, snow, and frost will disappear, i.e. milder winters”“Unusually warm winters without snow and ice are now being viewed by many as signs of climate change.”
    — Schleswig Holstein NABU, 10 Feb 2007
  31. “Based on the rising temperature, less snow will be expected regionally. While currently 1/3 of the precipitation in the Alps falls as snow, the snow-share of precipitation by the end of the century could end up being just one sixth.”
    — Germanwatch, Page 7, Feb 2007
  32. “The more than ‘unusually ‘warm January weather is yet ‘another extreme event’, ‘a harbinger of the winters that are ahead of us’. … The global temperature will ‘increase every year by 0.2°C’”
    — Michael MĂĽller, Socialist, State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Environment, Die Zeit, 15 Jan 2007
  33. “The global temperature will increase every year by 0.2°C”
    — Michael MĂĽller, Socialist, State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Environment, in Die Zeit, January 15, 2007
  34. “The lowest winter temperatures are likely to increase more than average winter temperature in northern Europe. …The duration of the snow season is very likely to shorten in all of Europe, and snow depth is likely to decrease in at least most of Europe.”
    — IPCC Climate Change, 2007
  35. “Although the magnitude of the trends shows large variation among different models, Miller et al. (2006) find that none of the 14 models exhibits a trend towards a lower NAM index and higher arctic SLP.”
    — IPCC 2007 4AR, (quoted by Georg Hoffmann)
  36. “The hottest year since 1659 spells global doom”
    — Telegraph December 14, 2006 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1536852/The-hottest-year-since-1659-spells-global-doom.html
  37. “We simply must do everything in our power to slow down global warming before it is too late…The science is clear. The global warming debate is over.”
    — September 2006, Arnold Schwarzenegger signing California’s anti-emissions law
  38. “Spring is arriving earlier each year as a result of climate change, the first ‘conclusive proof’ that global warming is altering the timing of the seasons, scientists announced yesterday.”
    Guardian, 26 August 2006.
  39. “Spring is arriving earlier each year as a result of climate change, the first ‘conclusive proof’ that global warming is altering the timing of the seasons, scientists announced yesterday.”
    — Guardian, 26 Aug 2006.
  40. “Yesterday’s snow… Because temperatures in the Alps are rising quickly, there will be more precipitation in many places. But because it will rain more often than it snows, this will be bad news for tourists. For many ski lifts this means the end of business.”
    — Daniela Jacob, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 8 Aug 2006
  41. “Already in the year 2025 the conditions for winter sports in the Fichtel Mountains will develop negatively, especially with regards to ‘natural’ snow conditions and for so-called snow-making potential. A financially viable ski business operation after about the year 2025 appears under these conditions to be extremely improbable (Seifert, 2004)”. Andreas Matzarakis, University of Freiburg Meteorological Institute, 26 July 2006
  42. “For the Baltic ringed seal, climate change could mean its demise” warned a team of scientists at the Baltic Sea Experiment (Baltex) conference in Goteborg. “This is because the warming leads to the ice on the Baltic Sea to melt earlier and earlier every year.”
    — Spiegel, 3 June 2006 [The Local 2013: “Late-season freeze sets Baltic ice record … I’ve never seen this much ice this late in the season.”]
  43. “In the wintertime the winds will be more from the west and will bring storms to Germany. Especially in western and southern Germany there will be flooding.” FOCUS / Mojib Latif, Leibniz Institute for Ocean Sciences of the University of Kiel, 27 May 2006.
  44. “Warm in the winter, dry in the summer … Long, hard winters in Germany remain rare: By 2085 large areas of the Alps and Central German Mountains will be almost free of snow. Because air temperatures in winter will rise more quickly than in summer, there will be more precipitation. ‘However, much of it will fall as rain,’ says Daniela Jacob of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.”
    — FOCUS, 24 May 2006
  45. “…the debate among the scientists is over. There is no more debate. We face a planetary emergency. There is no more scientific debate among serious people who’ve looked at the science…Well, I guess in some quarters, there’s still a debate over whether the moon landing was staged in a movie lot in Arizona, or whether the Earth is flat instead of round.”
    — May 31, 2006 Al Gore, CBS Early Show
  46. “Climate warming leads to an increasingly higher snow line. The number of future ski resorts that can be expected to have snow is reducing. […] Climate change does not only lead to higher temperatures, but also to changes in the precipitation ratios in summer and winter. […] In the wintertime more precipitation is to be anticipated. However, it will fall more often as rain, and less often as snow, in the future.”
    — Hans Elsasser, Director of the Geographical Institute of the University of Zurich, 4 Mar 2006
  47. “Skiing among palm trees? … For this reason I would advise no one in the Berchtesgadener Land to invest in a ski-lift. The probability of earning money with the global warming is getting less and less.”
    — Hartmut GraĂźl, Director Emeritus, Max Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, page 3, 4 Mar 2006
  48. “Due to global warming, the coming winters in the local regions will become milder.”
    — Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, University of Potsdam, February 8, 2006
  49. “In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn.”
    — Nature, T. P. Barnett et. al., 17 Nov 2005
  50. “In summer under certain conditions the scientists reckon with a complete melting of the Arctic sea ice. For Europe we expect an increase in drier and warmer summers. Winters on the other hand will be warmer and wetter.”
    — Erich Roeckner, Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, 29 Sept 2005.
  51. Planning for a snowless future: “Our study is already showing that that there will be a much worse situation in 20 years.”
    — Christopher Krull, Black Forest Tourism Association / Spiegel, 17 Feb 2005
  52. “We have seen that in the last years and decades that winters have become much milder than before and that there isn’t nearly as much snowfall. All simulations show this trend will continue in the future and that we have to expect an intense warming in the Alps…especially in the foothills, snow will turn to rain and winter sports will no longer be possible anymore.”
    — Mojib Latif, Leibnitz Institute for Oceanography, University of Kiel, February 17, 2005
  53. “Scholars are predicting that 50 million people worldwide will be displaced by 2010 because of rising sea levels, desertification, dried up aquifers, weather-induced flooding and other serious environmental changes.”
    — 2005, Andrew Simms, policy director of the New Economics Foundation
  54. “The data collected by experts from the university [of Bangor] suggests that a white Christmas on Snowdon – the tallest mountain in England and Wales – may one day become no more than a memory.”
    — BBC News, 20 Dec 2004
    “Snowdon Mountain Railway will be shut over the Easter weekend after it was hit by 30ft (9.1m) snow drifts.”]-- [BBC 2013]
  55. “This data confirms what many gardeners believe – winters are not as hard as they used to be. … And if recent trends continue a white Christmas in Wales could certainly be a thing of the past.”
    — BBC, Dr Jeremy Williams, Bangor University, Lecturer in Geomatics, 20 Dec 2004
  56. “Both the prognoses for global climate development and the prognoses for the climatic development of the Fichtel Mountains clearly show a warming of the average temperature, whereby especially the winter months will be greatly impacted.”
    — Willi Seifert, University of Bayreuth, diploma thesis, p. 203, 7 July 2004
  57. “Unfortunately, it’s just getting too hot for the Scottish ski industry. It is very vulnerable to climate change; the resorts have always been marginal in terms of snow and, as the rate of climate change increases, it is hard to see a long-term future.”
    — David Viner, of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. February 14, 2004
  58. “Unfortunately, it’s just getting too hot for the Scottish ski industry.”
    — David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 14 Feb 2004
  59. “With the pace of global warming increasing, some climate change experts predict that the Scottish ski industry will cease to exist within 20 years.”
    — Guardian, 14 February 2004 [4 January 2013: “Nevis Range, The Lecht, Cairngorm, Glenshee and Glencoe all remain closed today due to the heavy snow and strong winds.”]
  60. “Cold winters would gradually disappear.” (p.4)
    “In Belgium, snow on the ground could become increasingly rare but there would be plenty of grey sky and rain in winter..” (p.6) The Greenpeace report “Impacts of climate change in Belgium” is available in an abbreviated version in English: Impacts of climate change in Belgium; Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Philippe Marbaix for Greenpeace, 2004, Climate scientist van Ypersele is Vice Chair of the IPCC.
  61. “Given the increase in the average winter temperature it is obvious that the number of frost days and the number of days that the snow remains, will decline. For Europe the models indicate that cold winters such as at the end of the 20th century, that happened at an average once every ten years, will gradually disappear in the course of the century.” (p19) “… but it might well be that nothing remains of the snowjoy in the Hautes Fagnes but some yellowed photos because of the climate change … moreover an increase in winter precipitation would certainly not be favorable for recreation!” (p38) Impact of the climate change in Belgium (translated from Dutch). Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Philippe Marbaix for Greenpeace, 2004
  62. “Given the increase in the average winter temperature it is obvious that the number of frost days and the number of days that the snow remains, will decline. For Europe the models indicate that cold winters such as at the end of the 20th century, that happened at an average once every ten years, will gradually disappear in the course of the century.” (p. 19), and “…but it might well be that nothing remains of the snowjoy in the Hautes Fagnes but some yellowed photos because of the climate change … moreover an increase in winter precipitation would certainly not be favorable for recreation!” (p38) Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Philippe Marbaix, Greenpeace, 2004
  63. “Climate change will have the effect of pushing more and more winter sports higher and higher up mountains,…”
    Rolf Burki and his colleagues at the University of Zurich
  64. “In the northern part of the continent there likely will be some benefits in the form of reduced cold periods and higher agricultural yields. But the continued increase in temperatures will cancel off these benefits. In some regions up to 60% of the species could die off by 2080.”
    - Sat, 26 June 2003
  65. “In the future, snowdrops will be out in January, primroses in February, mayflowers and lilac in April and wild roses in May, the ponds will be full of tadpoles in March and a month later even the oaks will be in full leaf. If that isn’t enough, autumn probably won’t begin until October.”
    Geraint Smith, Science Correspondent, Standard, 3 Sept 2002
  66. “Assuming there will be a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, as is projected by the year 2030. The consequences could be hotter and drier summers, and winters warmer and wetter. Such a warming will be proportionately higher at higher elevations – and especially will have a powerful impact on the glaciers of the Firn regions.”
    — and “ The ski areas that reliably have snow will shift from 1200 meters to 1500 meters elevation by the year 2050; because of the climate prognoses warmer winters have to be anticipated.”
    — Scinexx Wissenschaft Magazin, 26 Mar 2002
  67. “We are now at the threshold of making reliable statements about the future.”
    — Daniela Jacob, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, page 44, 10/2001
  68. “In ten year’s time, most of the low-lying atolls surrounding Tuvalu’s nine islands in the South Pacific Ocean will be submerged under water as global warming rises sea levels.”
    — March 29, 2001, CNN
  69. “Global climate change is likely to be accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves, as well as warmer summers and milder winters…9.4.2. Decreased Mortality Resulting from Milder Winters … One study estimates a decrease in annual cold-related deaths of 20,000 in the UK by the 2050s (a reduction of 25%)”
    — IPCC Climate Change, 2001
  70. “Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms but could cause an increase in freezing rain if average daily temperatures fluctuate about the freezing point.”
    — IPCC Climate Change, 2001
  71. “Good bye winter. Never again snow?”
    — Spiegel, 1 April 2000
  72. “Winters with strong frost and lots of snow like we had 20 years ago will cease to exist at our latitudes.”
    — Mojib Latif, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 1 April 2000
  73. snowfall in Britain would become “a very rare and exciting event” and “children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
    — March 20, 2000, from The Independent, According to Dr David Viner of the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit
  74. “We are beginning to approximate the kind of warming you should see in the winter season.”
    — Star News, Mike Changery, National Climatic Data Center, 11 Mar 2000
  75. “Computer models predict that the temperature rise will continue at that accelerated pace if emissions of heat-trapping gases are not reduced, and also predict that warming will be especially pronounced in the wintertime.”
    — Star News, William K. Stevens, New York Times, 11 Mar 2000
  76. “Within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event. … Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
    — David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 20 March 2000
  77. “But it does not take a scientist to size up the effects of snowless winters on the children too young to remember the record-setting blizzards of 1996. For them, the pleasures of sledding and snowball fights are as out-of-date as hoop-rolling, and the delight of a snow day off from school is unknown.”
    — January 2000 Dr. Michael Oppenheimer of the Environmental Defense Fund commenting (in a NY Times interview) on the mild winters in New York City
  78. The rise in temperature associated with climate change leads to a general reduction in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow, and a consequent reduction in many areas in the duration of snow cover.”
    — Global Environmental Change, Nigel W. Arnell, Geographer, 1 Oct 1999
  79. “A report last week claimed that within a decade, the disease (malaria) will be common again on the Spanish coast. The effects of global warming are coming home to roost in the developed world.”
    — Sept 11, 1999, The Guardian
  80. “Scientists are warning that some of the Himalayan glaciers could vanish within ten years because of global warming. A build-up of greenhouse gases is blamed for the meltdown, which could lead to drought and flooding in the region affecting millions of people.”
    — July 26, 1999 The Birmingham Post
  81. “Warmer and Wetter Winters in Europe and Western North America Linked to Increasing Greenhouse Gases.”
    — NASA, June 2, 1999 http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/19990602/
  82. “Shindell’s model predicts that if greenhouse gases continue to increase, winter in the Northern Hemisphere will continue to warm. ‘In our model, we’re seeing a very large signal of global warming and it’s not a naturally occurring thing. It’s most likely linked to greenhouse gases,’he said. NASA, GISS, 2 June 1999
  83. “Warm Winters Result From Greenhouse Effect, Columbia Scientists Find, Using NASA Model … Despite appearing as part of a natural climate oscillation, the large increases in wintertime surface temperatures over the continents may therefore be attributable in large part to human activities,”
    — Science Daily, Dr. Drew Shindell 4 June 1999
  84. “It appears that we have a very good case for suggesting that the El Niños are going to become more frequent, and they’re going to become more intense and in a few years, or a decade or so, we’ll go into a permanent El Nino. So instead of having cool water periods for a year or two, we’ll have El Niño upon El Niño, and that will become the norm. And you’ll have an El Niño, that instead of lasting 18 months, lasts 18 years.”
    — November 7, 1997, (BBC commentator)
  85. “Most of the great environmental struggles will be either won or lost in the 1990s and by the next century it will be too late.”
    — February 1993, Thomas E. Lovejoy, Smithsonian Institution
  86. “By 2000, British and American oil will have diminished to a trickle….Ozone depletion and global warming threaten food shortages, but the wealthy North will enjoy a temporary reprieve by buying up the produce of the South. Unrest among the hungry and the ensuing political instability, will be contained by the North’s greater military might. A bleak future indeed, but an inevitable one unless we change the way we live…At present rates of exploitation there may be no rainforest left in 10 years. If measures are not taken immediately, the greenhouse effect may be unstoppable in 12 to 15 years.”
    — Edward Goldsmith, 1991, (5000 Days to Save the Planet)
  87. “The planet could face an ‘ecological and agricultural catastrophe’ by the next decade if global warming trends continue.”
    — October 15, 1990 Carl Sagan
  88. “I think we’re in trouble. When you realize how little time we have left–we are now given not 10 years to save the rainforests, but in many cases five years. Madagascar will largely be gone in five years unless something happens. And nothing is happening.”
    — April 22, 1990 ABC, The Miracle Planet
  89. “Giant sand dunes may turn Plains to desert–huge sand dunes extending east from Colorado’s Front Range may be on the verge of breaking through the thin topsoil, transforming America’s rolling High Plains into a desert, new research suggests. The giant sand dunes discovered by NASA satellite photos are expected to re-emerge over the next 20 t0 50 years, depending on how fast average temperatures rise from the suspected ‘greenhouse effect’ scientists believe.”
    — April 18, 1990, Denver Post
  90. “By 1995, the greenhouse effect would be desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots…”(By 1996) The Platte River of Nebraska would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers…The Mexican police will round up illegal American migrants surging into Mexico seeking work as field hands.”
    — Michael Oppenheimer, 1990, The Environmental Defense Fund
  91. “By the year 2000 – that’s less than ten years away–earth’s climate will be warmer than it’s been in over 100,000 years. If we don’t do something, there’ll be enormous calamities in a very short time.”
    — Actress Meryl Streep, 1990
  92. “Some predictions for the next decade are not difficult to make…Americans may see the ’80s migration to the Sun Belt reverse as a global warming trend rekindles interest in cooler climates.”
    — December 5, 1989, Dallas Morning News
  93. “New York will probably be like Florida 15 years from now.”
    — Sept 19, 1989, St. Louis Post-Dispatch
  94. “entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of ‘eco-refugees,’ threatening political chaos,” said Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program. He added that governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect. — June 30, 1989, Associated Press: U.N. OFFICIAL PREDICTS DISASTER, SAYS GREENHOUSE EFFECT COULD WIPE SOME NATIONS OFF MAP
  95. “Using computer models, researchers concluded that global warming would raise average annual temperatures nationwide [USA] two degrees by 2010.”
    — May 15, 1989, Associated Press
  96. “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change….There will be more police cars….[since] you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.”
    — Dr. James Hansen, 1988, in an interview with author Rob Reiss. Reiss asked how the greenhouse effect was likely to affect the neighborhood below Hansen’s office in NYC in the next 20 years.
  97. “Hansen predicted global temperatures should be nearly 2 degrees higher in 20 years, ‘which is about the warmest the earth has been in the last 100,000 years.’”
    — June 11, 1986, Dr. James Hansen of the Goddard Space Institute (NASA) in testimony to Congress (according to the Milwaukee Journal)
  98. “This cooling has already killed hundreds of thousands of people. If it continues and no strong action is taken, it will cause world famine, world chaos and world war, and this could all come about before the year 2000.”
    —1976 Lowell Ponte in “The Cooling”
  99. “The continued rapid cooling of the earth since WWII is in accord with the increase in global air pollution associated with industrialization, mechanization, urbanization and exploding population.”
    — June, 1975, Nigel Calder in International Wildlife
  100. “There are ominous signs that Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically….The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it….The central fact is that…the earth’s climate seems to be cooling down…If the climate change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic.”
    — April 28, 1975 Newsweek
  101. “Arctic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000.”
    — June 8, 1972, Christian Science Monitor
  102. “In the next 50 years fine dust that humans discharge into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuel will screen out so much of the sun’s rays that the Earth’s average temperature could fall by six degrees. Sustained emissions over five to ten years, could be sufficient to trigger an ice age.”
    — July 9, 1971, Washington Post
  103. “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”
    — Kenneth Watt, ecologist: Earth Day, 1970
  104. “At the present rate of nitrogen build-up, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.”
    — Kenneth Watt, ecologist, Earth Day”, 1970
  105. “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support …the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half…”
    — January 1970, Life Magazine
  106. “It is now pretty clearly agreed that CO2 content [in the atmosphere] will rise 25% by 2000. This could increase the average temperature near the earth’s surface by 7 degrees Fahrenheit. This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington, for that matter.”
    — 1969, Lubos Moti, Czech physicist

Friday, 9 September 2022

Introduction of Philosophy

Most philosoph is bad philosophy. The biggest errors philosophers make are

  • over speculation
  • extreme skepticism
  • logical fallacies

If I were recommending a reading list or introduction to philosophy, it would include just 3 books!

  • Begin with a general instroduction. Something like Bertrand Russell: "History of Western Philosophy", or A.C. Grayling "History of Philosophy". To get the lay of the land. Other good instroductions are available.
  • Next I'd recommend Madsen Pirie "How to Win Every Argument: The Use and Abuse of Logic" - Which catalogs logical fallacies and shows how they're used to argue badly. Most thinking and debating seems to consist of logical fallacies - so being able to identify bad arguments is the first step on the road to philosophizing. Philosopher or not - this is a book everyone can benefit from. Because bad arguments are often used to persuade us and we need to know how to identify them.
  • I have little respect for philosophy outside the Enlightenment. It is wholesale speculation and moralizing. The Enlightenment was a peculiar phase in Western thought lasting about 150 years prior to the French Revolution. Of course The Enlightenment had speculation and moralization but it also had something else: mostly rampant empiricist skepticism. I'd begin with "The Enlightenment and Why It Still Matters", by Anthony Pagden. Enlightenment skepticim is very different to contemporary postmodern skepticism. Enlightenment = good skepticism. Postmodernism = skepticism for its own sake.

Sunday, 21 August 2022

Today's Critical Theory - isn't even "critical"

"Critical consciousness" is the woke's biggest lie. Their foundational lie, or Ur-lie. The idea goes back 92 years to 1930 - the year Max Horkheimer was appointed director of the Frankfurt School to become the leader of the fledgling Critical Theorists (CTs). 2 key texts are:

Marx had argued that the standpoint of the proletariat, or working class, gave it a universal perspective, so enabling it to act in the interests of all society. This notion justified Marx's "Dictatorship of the Proletariat", and the revolutionary "overthrow of Capitalism". CTs wanted something similar but were wary of giving such a universal perspective to the working class; due to the disaster of the Soviet Union, and to the "capture" of the working class by capitalists (see: Chapter 4 of Dialectic of Enlightenment (1944, Adorno & Horkheimer), "The Culture Industry - Enlightenment as Mass Deception")

CTs eventually settled on an abstract notion they called critical theory (AKA: "critical consciousness" today) as a perspective to produce knowledge which can act in the interests of all, or the great majority of us; so such ideas can be "liberatory". In Critical Theory' critique of "traditional theory" (see essays cited above), the Critical Theorists elevate "critical consciousness" above all other ways of seeing the world because, for them, the claim to be making things better was their existential choice in life - their way of "making a difference".

Q: So what's the problem?, or as they say, What's my problem with it, don't you approve of liberation? A: My issue is how they obscure their CT rationale. CTs such as Adorno, Horkheimer, and Marcuse, famously obscurred their method. So it seems the CT must've entered their heads as an act of God, miracle, or special gift. Q: Does CT owe anything to traditional reason? A: Not a question you're allowed to ask them. The method is handed down, on tablets of stone, on the mountain, by your commissars. Q: Don't have commissars? A: The answer to that is presumably - join the Party or fake it.

Identitarianism replaces Class Politics

Leftwing woes with the working classes, in the 1970s and 1980s, led the Left to a new perspective from which to claim liberatory ideas. They settled on oppressed peoples as their proletariat replacement: women, racial, ethnic, and sexual minorities. Soon followed by 'nature' (Apparently all nature is oppressed by humanity - so claiming to liberate nature, for example, by rewilding, also enables one the same conceit of "speaking for liberation".

Of course, the claim to a universal perspective was now abandoned, and everything soon became a claim to particular perspectives. Pomo thrived in the 1970s, and 1980s. Postcolonialism, Intersectionality took over. But throughout it all a strand of Critical Theory survived from the New Left of the 1960s and '70s.

Critical Theory accomodated itself to all these, self-styled, liberation movements and ideas. Because they all had the same claim in common: a promise of liberation. But in the transition from old universal Marxism / CT to the new identitarian CT, everything acually changed. As if we moved from Alaska to the Sahara but want to keep our herb garden and grow it in the same way. The new CT prey on our old fashioned, Enlightenment, ideas of universalism, rights, liberty, equality. They use our Liberalism as a lever against Liberalism, to promote particularism. The Left now reject "universalism, rights, liberty, equality" as white, racist and imperialist values. Nevertheless, they use these values against Liberalism to promote their politics of equity. They want to have their cake and eat it.

  1. The very notion of critical theory implies a universal perspective. Universalism is entirely rejected by wokes; yet they have the conceit to pretend to speak from a universal perspective by calling themselves critical theorists!
  2. My second point against CT is more involved and relates to how CT itself evolved, how it sees itself, the training and education actual new CTs have.

    Habermas (1968) split knowledge into 3 realms:

    • Practical knowledge (including science)
    • Interpretive knowledge (Hermeneutics)
    • Critical Theory

    With a clear message: neither practical knowledge nor hermeneutics were liberatory, only critique could be so. The original CTs: Adorno, Horkheimer, Marcuse and even Habermas had deep philosophic training and knowledge. Although they wandered off into speculation their training somehow saved them from sounding like complete fools.

    Modern woke CTs have no such foundation in Western philosophy. Postcolonialism tells the left - all Western ideas are white racist ideology! With their love of censorship and safe spaces, they have no experience in robust debate, so they don't even know how to avoid basic philosophical fallacies. Avoiding philosophical fallacies is trained into us - by practiced debate. No one ever memorized how to debate and then sucessfully did it first time without blundering with fallacies. Modern CTs are missing Philosophy 101 but believe themselves masters of Advanced Philosophy = Critical Theory! They are trained in one, two or three ideas as befit their occupation of particular niches in academia but their general knowledge in philosophy, science, debate is appalling. In short: the self-styled critical theorists are inept and extremely uncritical.

Pomo?

I'm not even going to mention it because, as it relates to CT, it's irrelevant.

Tuesday, 9 August 2022

Foucault's concept of Power is a fallacy

It's popular because it's the foundation for entire disciplines of fake academic knowledge.

Foucault's concept of power is a fallacy because:

  1. Foucault created an abstract idea of power. Much of the historical evidence he used (from: Madness and Civilization, Discipline and Punish, History of Sexuality, ...) was partial and cherry-picked. There are other histories which criticise power in the real, not in the abstract; other histories which come to different conclusions regarding power, expertise, ... in society.
  2. 'Power' becomes an abstract idea for Foucauldians. Then, they use that abstract idea to support other abstract ideas such as systematic racism. They build an empire of abstractions to support their new ideology. But - as they see it - everything is ideology - so they can never know how and why they're wrong.
  3. Foucauldian power - legitimizes actual power in society by misleading people. We should criticise power on the basis of the concrete (measured) evil it does - not on how our feelings and ressentiment motivate us. For example: watch how pomos and identitarians are taken in by COVID, climate propaganda. Misled people now allow actual power to rule uncriticised - while they're busy criticising abstract Foucauldian power.

How bad faith actors in Science and its identitarianism critics enable each other.

James Lindsay did an interview with Accad and Koka Report. Lindsay argues against postmodernism, identitarianism, woke, cultural relativism, and epistemic relativist views of science.

But, sometimes the "scientists" and "experts" are wrong. How can we tell? Like James says: "ask for evidence". If the scientist/expert understands "The Science", they'll be able argue for their view on the basis of science - NOT on the basis of their membership of the scientific elite - but on the basis of evidence arrived at by experiment and observation. If scientists/experts don't try to argue from the evience then that's a good sign they are fake scientists.

Paradoxically :

  1. pomos and identitarians - fighting "power" - enable actual power (billionaires, governments, power elites, big business, NGOs, GOs, IGOs, cartels, .... ) to corrupt science ! They enable power by pretending to "fight" against it. Because epistemic relativist arguments against science are fake arguments.
  2. fake scientists - who don't argue from the evidence - but argue from expertise, credentials, 'argument from authority', ... - enable pomo, identitarians, and epistemic relativism. Because when we argue that we're right on the basis of some abstraction (The Science), or some other fallacy, then we enable rampant skepticism, pomo, and suspicion of ALL truths.

One set of bad faith, actors enable the other set - who they pretend to think of as their nemesis - by using wrong arguments.

BTW:

  1. statistical correlation alone is not a scientific argument
  2. BTW: some of these bad faith scientists I refer to seem to be pomos themselves - they certainly don't have an argument against pomo

Established science is sometimes (or often) wrong.

See:

  1. Retration Watch.
  2. Why Most Published Research Findings Are False, John P. A. Ioannidis, 2005
  3. What has happened down here is the winds have changed, Andrew Gelman, 2016
  4. Cargo-cult statistics and scientific crisis, Philip B. Stark & Andrea Saltelli, 2018
  5. What is Enlightenment?, Immanuel Kant
  6. It is of course, the global warming scam, with the (literally) trillions of dollars driving it, that has corrupted so many scientists, and has carried APS before it like a rogue wave. It is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist.”-
    - Professor emeritus Hal Lewis

Climate modeling fraud

" The data does not matter... We're not basing our recommendations on the data; we're basing them on the climate models. "...