Balloons in the Air: Understanding weather and climate - Transcript

Balloons in the Air: Understanding weather and climate

Dr. Ronan Connolly & Dr. Michael Connolly

Transcript

Time:
00:00	hi so for this talk myself and Michael
00:05	we'll be alternating between it to go
00:09	through different parts in this talk I
00:11	am but it's describing the work that
00:13	we've done together just to mention a
00:15	little bit of age
00:17	what we've done is from 2010 to 2014
00:22	where we spent well five years working
00:26	looking at the data from weather
00:29	balloons which there is launched once to
00:35	four times a day around the world in a
00:37	beta deterrence stations around the
00:39	world and these go up into the
00:41	atmosphere and they record temperature
00:43	pressure and various stuff and so we
00:46	started doing analysis to see what's
00:48	happening in the atmosphere it is a data
00:51	going back to the 50s and we found a
00:53	load of different results and we
00:56	realized that there was a lot of
00:58	paradigms in current atmospheric
01:01	modeling that people had never tested
01:06	and we had so much we couldn't fit it
01:09	into one single peer-reviewed paper and
01:11	we decided look let's just put
01:14	everything up onto a website and put a
01:18	date for open peer review so we set up
01:20	the open peer-reviewed journal and most
01:23	of the work that we will be talking
01:24	about you can get on this and we'll talk
01:27	a little bit about some newer work in in
01:31	the future or towards the end of the
01:33	talk but the first part I'm going to
01:35	talk about the history of atmospheric
01:37	measurements then I'm gonna hand it over
01:39	to Michael who's my father and he's
01:43	going to talk about the work that I was
01:45	describing in the that you can get those
01:47	papers on the open peer-reviewed journal
01:49	and then finally we're just going to
01:51	present a sneak preview of some of the
01:53	newer work that we are preparing for
01:56	submitting to for peer review so what
02:00	I'd like you to get from from this first
02:04	part is that all of the models and most
02:10	of our understanding of what's happening
02:12	in the
02:13	atmosphere it's based on measurements
02:15	that were done on ground and this so
02:20	I'll give you example so this was one of
02:23	the first key discoveries which was well
02:27	Columbus use it's a great advantage in
02:30	that he found that I don't know if you
02:34	could see the the map on the thing where
02:36	you could see the voyages that were
02:39	drawn to the Americas and they found
02:42	that by going in a particular direction
02:45	go under going west and then East they
02:48	were able to take advantage of the
02:50	prevailing easterlies and westerlies and
02:52	that sped up the journey quite a bit so
02:55	this was like obviously a major
02:57	advantage so in the 1600 1700 to 1800 s
03:01	we had a lot of very prominent
03:04	scientists trying to figure out why why
03:07	are these prevailing winds there and
03:10	these of course were ground-based
03:12	measurements there were there real
03:14	measurements taken by explorers so you
03:16	have people like Hadley Holly of
03:18	Halley's Comet fame and Farrell
03:21	developing this the other method if you
03:23	want to find if you want to go up and
03:27	find what's happening higher up in the
03:29	atmosphere in the old days you had to
03:31	climb a mountain so you actually had
03:35	most of the meteorologists when they
03:37	wanted to look at what's happening up
03:39	would climb up mansions Mont Blanc in
03:42	Europe is the highest mountain in Europe
03:44	it's five kilometers of a tree three
03:47	miles above sea level one of the results
03:50	which most of us probably already know
03:53	is that as you go up in the atmosphere
03:55	it gets colder at height and the lapse
03:59	rate the rate which you do is it works
04:03	at about 6 and 1/2 degrees Celsius per
04:05	kilometer and here's another example
04:08	spectroscopy is looking at light and a
04:13	parody be I tried a lot of you would
04:16	probably be familiar with spectroscopy
04:18	but it's essentially you're looking at
04:21	the wavelengths of light and different
04:24	things and trying to infer in for my
04:26	Vitus so the ozone layer was first
04:30	identified by looking at air in the
04:33	early 20th century by looking at
04:35	spectrophotometers and looking at the
04:38	light that was coming through the
04:41	atmosphere and they noticed that there
04:43	were these Peaks are missing bits in the
04:46	spectra that were due to ozone and they
04:50	realized that ozone was existing
04:53	somewhere up in the atmosphere and it
04:55	was later identified it's been about 40
04:58	kilometers up in the atmosphere is the
05:00	ozone layer another example that's quite
05:04	well-known it was by John Tyndall who
05:07	was an Irish man and so he must have
05:10	been good and so he showed that if you
05:14	look at the infrared light he found that
05:19	if you look in the atmosphere oxygen and
05:22	nitrogen are almost transparent to
05:25	infrared light but that water vapor co2
05:28	and methane that they are infrared
05:30	active what we'd call infrared active
05:32	that means they can absorb and emit a
05:34	particular frequencies of IR and yes
05:40	well here we are 50 days if 50 years ago
05:43	today the the eagle was landing of
05:49	what's launched and I think I told of
05:52	the exact time I think it's supposed to
05:54	it landed as probably it tomorrow
05:57	morning or something like that and so
06:01	that was kind of the culmination of a in
06:05	many sense the space race and another
06:08	aspect of the space race was people
06:10	started launching satellites and in 1960
06:14	the u.s. started the series of first
06:17	weather satellites were launched and
06:20	they're still running now we're on I did
06:22	the 45th Terra satellite at the moment
06:26	so what I just want to show you it's
06:29	great now with the space after the space
06:32	race we now are able to look from above
06:34	the atmosphere but here's what's
06:37	happening you know most of our
06:40	measurements were done from below the
06:41	atmosphere now we're looking at it from
06:43	above the atmosphere and if you want to
06:47	look at what's inside the atmosphere
06:49	that's if you want to understand what's
06:51	happening you need to look within the
06:52	atmosphere and on the main data set that
06:55	you can do is weather balloons so this
06:59	has a history going back to the early
07:01	late 19th century even earlier but we
07:05	had it just on the cusp of the earlier
07:09	of the 19 - 20 th century we had a
07:11	number of European groups that well
07:13	started using both manned and unmanned
07:17	weather balloons now I liked I found
07:20	this nice drawing by from one of the the
07:24	pilots for the German group that was
07:30	also a an artist and so he's the guy on
07:34	the right holding that bike yellow and
07:37	that was Hans gross but he drew that
07:40	this painting of what it was like a few
07:43	years after he had been in it but
07:46	independently about the French group
07:48	where it was just using online balloons
07:51	and the German group in 1902 they
07:53	discovered what we now call the
07:55	tropopause though they initially called
07:58	it the stratosphere and so what was this
08:01	trap a pause stratosphere well you know
08:03	as I mentioned earlier on as you go up
08:05	in the atmosphere gets colder with
08:08	height but they were discovering this
08:10	odd phenomenon where it starts to
08:13	actually remain constant with height you
08:16	go up and it doesn't get colder and
08:18	later on it was discovered there was
08:21	another region where as you go even
08:22	further it starts getting hotter with
08:25	height and this was a major puzzle and I
08:30	yeah so the the logic all don't from
08:34	ground without measurements was that
08:36	they were saying well you know hot air
08:39	rises I so all else being equal and so
08:42	he said well if the temperature is not
08:45	getting colder with height you can't
08:47	have circulation and so they assumed
08:50	must be that the air is stratified
08:53	- non mixing layers they didn't actually
08:56	notice they weren't measuring her but
08:58	they juices an assumption they made and
08:59	that's why the name stratosphere came
09:02	from that the air was stratified and
09:04	they said where is trap us turning or
09:07	mixing the troposphere they is mixed so
09:10	that was just a ground-based assumption
09:14	looking at these fairly weather balloon
09:16	models and we can see as you go up in
09:20	the atmosphere we now know looking at
09:22	using rockets and that you can see that
09:26	as you go up even higher the
09:28	stratosphere starts to pause again and
09:31	then it starts to decrease with height
09:33	again then we get another thing we say
09:36	we have this back and forth and if you
09:39	see a shooting star it's probably in a
09:42	random eases fear me suppose region but
09:46	for the rest of the talk we're just
09:48	gonna focus on the lower tree regions
09:51	you see the stratosphere troppo pause
09:54	and troposphere and that's the region
09:56	that the balloons go up to 35 kilometers
09:59	right 20 22 miles or something yeah and
10:03	that in terms of the mass of the
10:06	atmosphere that comprises 99% of the air
10:11	mass so it's the bulk of the mass and
10:15	yeah I you yeah so we just the old days
10:21	the early balloons they used to put a
10:25	little removed a balloon burst it could
10:28	land like 200 miles away from where it
10:31	was launched so in order to get the data
10:33	back they will put a little reward sign
10:36	note in with the measurements and saying
10:39	if found please return to the
10:41	meteorological observatory and you'll
10:43	get the equivalent of probably like 20
10:46	dollars or something like that but then
10:48	in the thirties they invented a radio
10:51	transmitters got so cheap that it didn't
10:54	became standard so now you'll hear the
10:57	term radiosonde used for a weather
11:00	balloon sounding sound for sounding and
11:04	it was the name came from the
11:06	the nautical term where people would
11:08	troll a the arduous sounding going down
11:12	into the ocean and they said well we're
11:13	kind of doing the reverse doing a
11:16	sounding going vertically so what in
11:22	terms of the development of our
11:24	understanding of the current textbook
11:27	understanding of climate and atmosphere
11:29	there were two main puzzles that were
11:32	captivating scientists in the early
11:35	night early 20th late nineteenth century
11:38	why order ice ages that was the first
11:41	one at this stage they already knew that
11:45	most have been at least four periods in
11:48	the last million years and we now know
11:50	there was there's more it's roughly by
11:52	ten where the France
11:57	yeah Europe and Americas were covered
12:01	with glaciers almost covered and then
12:04	into a what we now called an integration
12:07	period like today where that's not the
12:09	case so they wanted to know why did that
12:11	happen
12:12	the other one was this new discovery of
12:14	a trump upon stratosphere under like
12:16	what's happening here and because the
12:21	ozone layer was discovered around the
12:23	same time around 1912 the assumption was
12:28	it's probably something to do with the
12:31	ozone layer people that are familiar
12:36	with the climate change debate now
12:38	you'll you might recognize that a lot of
12:41	the topics of the theories that people
12:43	were proposing for explaining the ice
12:46	age non-ace H are still the main topics
12:51	of people are doing here changes in
12:53	solar variability the Earth's orbit
12:56	changes in water cloud cover
12:58	co2 volcanic eruptions I the I just
13:03	checked it's interesting I was just
13:04	talking about on on the next slide but
13:06	in the late 19th century one of the
13:08	prior the main ones that was being
13:11	proposed was that co2 was responsible
13:13	for all of the Earth's climate change
13:16	and including the ice ages
13:19	then nowadays the prevailing consensus
13:23	by the IPCC and others is that oh no the
13:26	ice ages are due to the Milankovitch
13:30	cycles changes in the Earth's orbit but
13:33	we are still holding on to this notion
13:36	that co2 is dominant for short term a
13:40	climate changes so we Michael will talk
13:43	a little bit about that later on in his
13:45	section but you could just say show you
13:47	a lot of people often hear of svante
13:49	arrhenius or in the nineteenth century
13:52	they already have proved that co2 was
13:54	the driver of climate well in the night
13:58	Jade said air debate few years later
14:00	he's a Swedish colleague contemporary
14:05	Noah angstrom who was the son of Anders
14:08	angstrom that's the unit is named after
14:10	angstrom is named after he went had read
14:13	the papers and decided to do experiments
14:16	did one of the first systematic reviews
14:19	of the IR spectrum of co2 and his
14:23	results were saying no co2 was not the
14:26	driver George Simpson is a very
14:30	interesting guy he was one of the
14:33	surviving members of Scott of Antarctic
14:36	expedition so he was the meteorological
14:40	scientist so he stayed at the base camp
14:43	so like many of you will are probably
14:46	familiar with jazz
14:48	Robert Scott's Antarctic tragic
14:50	expedition they got to the South Pole a
14:53	few days shortly after Raul Amundsen but
14:58	then they they died on the way back but
15:01	because George Simpson was still at
15:03	Basecamp he survived he later went on to
15:06	have a very prestigious career director
15:08	at British Meteorological Office he was
15:11	knighted and whatever reason that I'm
15:15	mentioning it here is in the twenties
15:16	and thirties he we looked at both of
15:18	those two puzzles and he was using
15:21	because he was in a meteorological thing
15:23	he had access to all the weather
15:25	balloons when he did his analysis his
15:27	calculations he concluded co2 was not
15:30	the driver of the ice
15:33	of climate change he was very
15:35	categorical about that they said
15:38	temperatures in the troposphere were not
15:42	driven by radiative processes which I'll
15:47	talk a bit about later and he said and
15:49	probably convection was more important
15:52	but he argued that the stratosphere his
15:55	calculations may be radiation was
15:57	involved said is probably something to
15:59	do with ozone but he put in two caveats
16:01	that there was a lot of inconsistencies
16:03	with the theory and the data which
16:06	Michael will talk about later on most of
16:09	this work was done with very high de
16:13	without computers are before with very
16:15	early computers and so you were very
16:18	limited in what you could do so a
16:20	philosophy that seems to been popular
16:22	was the peak wanting approach so Gilbert
16:26	plus he explicitly stated one of his
16:29	papers he was going to try and explain
16:31	every possible climate change that
16:33	occurred in terms of co2 and his logic
16:36	was he said well presumably somebody
16:39	else will try and look at other factors
16:41	and whatever the truth is between at all
16:44	will eventually get to the truth but it
16:46	seems that plus nobody else took him up
16:50	on that offer and sell a lot of these
16:52	say a deteriorate co2 as the driver
16:55	relates back to plus and those papers
16:58	else a sir he went and he tried to
17:04	describe the entire atmospheric
17:06	temperature profile using radiative
17:08	process is ignoring convection or
17:11	anything like that but just using
17:12	radiative processes and the
17:14	interestingly this was a puzzle because
17:16	we he keeps referring to what Einstein
17:19	had found in the photoelectric effect
17:21	but there's the mention there is no
17:25	mention of the name Einstein in his 1942
17:30	Harvard monograph and this we were kind
17:32	of looking at a Michael pointed H oh
17:35	that you know that Einstein was in
17:38	Princeton at the time so you couldn't
17:41	mention in a Harvard monograph the he
17:43	Princeton professor
17:47	so you'll see a lot of people referring
17:49	to Kirchhoff's laws in when they're
17:52	using climate modeling and they're
17:54	actually referring to Einsteins laws but
17:57	they're using else a sirs book which
17:59	rebranded Einstein as Gustav Kirchhoff
18:03	had discovered everything was so man
18:05	abeyance trickler who they went on that
18:10	what later became Noah G FTL's
18:12	Princeton ironically Princeton crop' in
18:16	a climate modeling group they tried to
18:19	use else Asura's data in the sixties to
18:23	explain the entire tropopause
18:25	stratosphere and troposphere in terms of
18:28	radiative processes but there was a big
18:31	problem remember I said that the lapse
18:33	rate was six and a half degrees per
18:36	Celsius per kilometer in the troposphere
18:39	when they did their calculations they
18:42	kept getting -16 nearly three times the
18:46	rate of cooling and they also were
18:50	calculating that the ground temperature
18:53	was of the order of 160 fahrenheit now I
18:58	I'm coming from Ireland so when I
19:00	arrived here in Tucson it did feel a
19:03	little like that but I think maybe not
19:05	that high and so I they did find out
19:11	that this stratosphere
19:12	kind of looks about right and so George
19:16	Simpson that I mentioned earlier the guy
19:19	in scott of Antarctica's group he he had
19:23	looked did similar calculations that
19:25	he'd concluded well clearly the
19:27	troposphere is not dominated by the
19:29	radiative presses and that's what he was
19:31	saying is probably convection mono Bay
19:33	and Strickler went a different route
19:35	they said so let's just keep adjusting
19:37	our models and so what they do is they
19:41	would put in a an arbitrary if they
19:44	found a lapse rate was getting too high
19:46	a rapid after it in during the
19:50	simulation they would just artificially
19:52	put in a thing to shove the data at
19:55	their model thing back so didn't matches
19:57	two minus six and a half
19:59	they didn't really they said well it's
20:01	probably something to do with convection
20:03	so it's called the convective adjustment
20:05	and the Apollo mission used the IBM 7090
20:13	supercomputer and I was incredibly
20:17	advanced of course now you have a
20:20	smartphone is the only thing that as
20:23	everything has gotten bigger with this
20:24	rifle the CPU the round the only thing
20:26	that's gotten smaller is the size so and
20:30	so you would say yes so we've had
20:33	massive improvements in the
20:34	supercomputers but what have they done
20:37	with it climate modelers have improved a
20:40	resolution and they've added in extra
20:43	components to these two schematics by
20:45	the way that you could see under saying
20:47	are taken from the IPCC fourth
20:49	assessment report this is their own
20:51	description the IPC's description of how
20:54	climate models have advanced what I want
20:57	to point out is that the fundamental
20:59	what's called the physics in the jargon
21:03	is what they'll use is that doubt that
21:06	radiatively dominated was the main
21:08	driver that was never checked and they
21:11	just keep on using that and the
21:14	implications well if the atmosphere is
21:18	dominated temperature profile is
21:19	dominated by radiative processes well as
21:24	Tyndall had shown it co2 and water vapor
21:28	on me chain and ozone are the key
21:31	components there and so they they said
21:34	well if you increase co2 which we now
21:38	know is occurring you know Don Manoel
21:40	our shows that it has increased then
21:44	they predicted so you will get global
21:47	warming and they were predicting this in
21:49	the 60s manna Bay in wet around 1967 I
21:52	think was the first to its will
21:54	compliant computer model to make that
21:56	prediction and where some other ones a
21:59	earlier on but like it was the problem
22:04	was that at the time it was global
22:06	cooling was occurring from the 40s to
22:09	the 70s and so that was a big crowd
22:13	but then in the 80s it started warming
22:15	again and so the climate modelers
22:17	declared vindication and famously a
22:20	particular James Hansen and a NASA
22:23	modeling group he wedged and testified
22:27	for out towards Al Gore and he's as a
22:31	result yeah
22:33	the greenhouse effect enhanced
22:36	greenhouse effect Harry became
22:38	mainstream was reported around the world
22:40	it led to the setting up of the IPCC the
22:44	UN also the UN cop agreement Sola Rosa
22:48	where people are trying to cut down co2
22:51	emissions and have international
22:53	negotiations to do that that all went on
22:57	in parallel to while the UN was trying
23:01	to negotiate all of these agreements and
23:04	the Paris 2015 agreement comes from that
23:07	line of the UN the IPCC was supposed to
23:11	actually go and check the results but
23:13	they'd already decided in 1988 that the
23:18	science were settled apparently just
23:22	what you end this first part by pointing
23:24	out that his quote artists Fame aligned
23:27	from Joni Mitchell sang and I think to
23:29	do the analogy to paraphrase that people
23:33	you know we have looked at the
23:36	atmosphere from both sides now from
23:38	above the atmosphere and below the
23:41	atmosphere but a little you actually
23:43	look in the atmosphere you don't really
23:47	know what's happening and I'll now hand
23:50	over to Michael
23:56	I'm just going to briefly summarize the
23:59	scientific method because this is what
24:02	we use when we're analyzing the weather
24:04	balloons we don't use models around like
24:06	that and we don't adjust the data we
24:08	just use this particular method so
24:10	basically what a scientist does is he'll
24:12	do a set of experiments we collect a
24:14	whole big pile of data and make
24:16	observations so we call these facts and
24:19	then if he can come up with an equation
24:21	that will describe all this set of data
24:23	then these are called laws but if you
24:26	come up with something new I scientists
24:29	really wants to explain why is it
24:31	happening laws tell you what happens and
24:33	how they happen but they don't tell you
24:35	why so the first thing you do then is
24:37	you make a guess as to why it happens
24:40	and we call this a hypothesis and this
24:42	is where the scientific method comes in
24:44	because what as a scientist you're Danah
24:47	obliged to put your guess to all of the
24:51	tests than you can think of and maybe
24:53	get other people to come up with other
24:54	tests and what happens is if it survives
24:57	all the tests then you have a theory and
25:01	but the unfortunate thing is if if any
25:05	facts are not explained by your guests
25:08	or your hypothesis then it's wrong so
25:12	that's what summed up by famously by
25:16	Richard Feynman where he said it doesn't
25:18	matter how smart a person is it doesn't
25:20	matter how beautiful the hypothesis is
25:23	one ugly fact that disagrees was it
25:26	destroys the whole thing so the other
25:30	thing is that if you have two or more
25:32	theories that explain all the facts then
25:34	what we use is the principle of Occam's
25:36	razor who was an 11th century monk and
25:38	he said if two or more theories explain
25:40	all the facts pick the simplest one so
25:43	that basically is the scientific method
25:45	in a nutshell now let's have a look at
25:48	the weather balloon data this is typical
25:51	weather balloon and attached onto the
25:53	bottom of it there you'll see the little
25:55	instrument package which measures the
25:57	temperatures and so on
25:59	and what do you get from this weather
26:01	balloon the weather balloon now adays
26:03	they're filled with hydrogen or helium
26:05	and they go up to about 25 miles
26:09	then they burst and all the way up there
26:11	sending back all the disinformation it
26:13	takes about 90 minutes for it to get to
26:15	25 miles or so and this is what you'll
26:19	get back a whole list of data now this
26:21	is only about a third of the data but it
26:23	gets the point across and what you can
26:25	see is that there are temperature
26:27	measurements pressure measurements and
26:30	so on and then there are certain levels
26:33	called mandated pressure levels which
26:35	I've underlined some of them they're the
26:37	ones on this section in red and they're
26:40	obliged to take those measurements
26:42	regardless so what do you get when you
26:45	have your weather balloon data well here
26:48	I've taken the weather balloon data from
26:51	this day last year in Tucson and also
26:55	one on the first of January for this
26:56	year in Tucson and I've plotted here the
26:59	temperature versus the the height or the
27:05	pressure as you go up so down the green
27:07	bit down there represents the ground and
27:09	the top scale across there is in degrees
27:12	Kelvin which is the scientifically used
27:15	temperature it's zero degrees centigrade
27:19	or 32 degrees Fahrenheit this 273
27:22	degrees Kelvin so you can see on the
27:25	Tucson one there the temperature is
27:28	about 31 32 that would be or sorry 310
27:33	or something like that that would be
27:35	about 40 degrees centigrade or 107
27:38	Fahrenheit so I just picked the January
27:43	and July one one is in the evening of
27:45	one is in the morning for to illustrate
27:48	the difference between summer and winter
27:51	and day and night and before I can start
27:54	showing you how we analyze that I have
27:56	to summarize the gas laws I'm sorry to
27:59	have to bore you with this but I know
28:01	most of you may have forgotten most of
28:03	them so this is a quick summary Boyle
28:06	who again was another Irishman and had
28:08	to be write as well he he said that if
28:12	you increase the pressure on the gas it
28:15	gets smaller so if you double the
28:18	pressure you have the volume if you have
28:20	the pressure you get the ball you
28:23	with double the volume and then you had
28:25	Charles the slow who was in a French man
28:30	and he was the first guy to ever man a
28:33	balloon so he's the first month flush in
28:38	a balloon he said if you heat a gas it
28:40	expands and if you cool the gas it's
28:43	easier to squeeze it back down into a
28:45	small volume again and the last law that
28:48	we have in the gas laws is Avogadro's
28:50	law and he just simply said that if you
28:54	have two gases occupying the same volume
28:57	it doesn't matter what the gases are one
29:00	could be hydrogen a very light gas the
29:02	other might be carbon dioxide which is a
29:04	lot heavier and made up of three atoms
29:06	the type of atoms or molecules doesn't
29:10	matter all that matters is that they
29:12	have the same number of molecules in the
29:16	gas if they occupy the same volume they
29:18	have the same number and we measured
29:21	count the number of molecules in a unit
29:23	called moles a mole is a very large
29:26	number there it's six by ten to the 23
29:29	and in honor of abogado it's called
29:32	Avogadro's numbers so n therefore is the
29:36	number of moles that you would have in
29:38	the cubic meter of air so if you combine
29:42	those three gases together are those
29:44	three gas laws together you guys what's
29:46	called the ideal gas law and the
29:49	internal dynamics this represents the
29:51	equation of state of the ideal gas so
29:54	basically in terms of dynamics if if a
29:58	gas is obeying the gas law it's said to
30:01	be in thermodynamic equilibrium and this
30:03	would be an important point that we'll
30:05	get to later on so you can rearrange the
30:10	gas law or the equation of state into
30:12	the molar density form and what you'll
30:15	see then is you get D which is n over P
30:20	the number of moles per unit volume or
30:22	per square meter cubic meter that's
30:26	what it tells you is that if D is very
30:29	low the molecules are spread far apart
30:31	and if D is very high the molecules are
30:35	squashed close together so how does this
30:39	allow us to analyze the weather balloon
30:42	data well the first thing I'll tell you
30:44	is nobody I know of on to myself and
30:48	Ronin have analyzed the weather balloon
30:50	data in terms of D the molar density
30:53	even though it is an equation of state
30:57	it's just representing the same one in a
30:59	slightly different form but nobody
31:01	taught to analyze the data in this
31:04	particular way and the reason why this
31:09	is of use is that if you take this
31:11	January profile here and look at how the
31:13	temperature is changing as you go up
31:15	through the atmosphere it's fairly
31:16	wobbling back and forth and so on but if
31:19	I transfer that data and represent it in
31:22	terms of molar density what I end up
31:25	with is two straight lines and this is
31:27	what's quite a surprise and just to show
31:31	you that these really are straight lines
31:33	you can see the little circles represent
31:36	the actual measurements and if you look
31:39	at the correlation it shows it's
31:42	extremely good at the r-squared factor
31:44	if it's one it means it's a perfect
31:46	straight line if it's zero there's no
31:48	linear correlation at all but these
31:50	these started things are quite good now
31:53	the thing is that that one was one taken
31:58	in the evening hour sorry taken in the
32:00	morning what we find is if you take it
32:03	you're in the day after the Sun has
32:05	heated up the ground level is
32:07	represented by a third line but the
32:10	interesting and I get into that a bit
32:12	later the interesting thing is that we
32:15	can now find that we can divide the
32:17	atmosphere into three different regions
32:20	and each of these have their own staff
32:24	at a separate equation of state so that
32:26	means within each of these regions the
32:28	air is in term of dynamic equilibrium
32:30	and that will have implications that are
32:33	get into later and the other thing is
32:35	that at night when the sun goes down you
32:37	lose that bottom
32:39	and it just becomes the same as the rest
32:41	of the tropopause
32:42	so we analyzed all of the 20 million
32:45	radio songs that have been launched
32:48	since the 1950s I spent over an hour
32:51	counting him we found that there were
32:54	the same thing applied to all 20 million
32:57	there was two day reader represented by
33:00	two straight lines or three straight
33:02	lines depending on where the rose day or
33:04	night and to show that this wasn't just
33:07	cherry picking - what I have done is we
33:11	did the video for all of the radio songs
33:14	for Tucson here for last year and what
33:19	you can see here again as the vertical
33:22	axis is the term pressure you're going
33:24	from the ground upwards but the thing I
33:26	want you to take away from this is that
33:27	if you look at the right hand side I
33:29	fetched it just need to nitrate once I
33:32	didn't bother with the day once because
33:33	it would have been wiggling back and
33:34	forward a bit but if you look there you
33:36	can see that all of the the weather
33:40	balloon dieters are all fitted by the
33:42	same two straight lines but the
33:44	interesting thing is the horizontal line
33:47	shows for these two lines intersects and
33:49	that's the start of the tropopause every
33:52	single time and thing about it is as
33:55	jumps up and down it can jump up by boat
33:57	and down by as much as 20 percent of the
34:00	atmosphere in as little as 12 hours it's
34:02	a very rapidly changing phenomenon which
34:05	has a lot of implications so if we get
34:07	into later
34:08	so just to continually explanation then
34:11	I I just want to rotate the dis graph by
34:16	90 degrees so that the ground is on the
34:20	right-hand side and the pressure is on
34:24	the bottom and the molar density is the
34:25	vertical axis so that's what I'm doing
34:28	here
34:28	and the reason I do this is that as
34:30	chemists it's quite common for us to
34:32	want to measure how the molar density
34:35	behaves with with pressure because it
34:37	tells us something about the
34:38	compressibility of a gas so normally you
34:42	take an ideal gas and by the way under
34:44	the conditions that we have in the
34:45	atmosphere oxygen hydrogen carbon
34:48	dioxide meter and they are all ideal
34:51	gases
34:51	so under
34:53	circumstance and water vapor is an ideal
34:55	gas provided the humidity is less than
34:58	100 but if you increase the humidity
35:01	above a hundred then it ceases to be an
35:03	ideal gas that's just a side effect so
35:07	the thing about a gas is the more
35:10	compressible it is the easier it is to
35:12	squeeze it down this the flatter the
35:15	slope would be so you can see here the
35:18	red data points showing if are the
35:20	troposphere the lower section of the
35:22	atmosphere the gas has a certain
35:25	compressibility and then when it hits
35:27	the tropopause for some reason the gas
35:30	becomes easier to compress now this
35:33	turns out to be a killer blow for the
35:36	ozone heating hypothesis which I'll
35:38	explain why in a minute
35:41	to demonstrate this in a slightly
35:45	different way here we have the two songs
35:48	that I showed earlier I've put the
35:49	temperatures on top of each other so the
35:52	red one represents the summer
35:54	temperature for this day last year in
35:56	Tucson and the blue one represents the
36:00	are is the temperature for the winter
36:04	night one and when you look at the molar
36:07	density one you can see yes we get the
36:09	straight lines it's turned into straight
36:11	lines and you can see that the slope of
36:14	the red one the hotter one is less than
36:16	the slope of the green one are the blue
36:19	one the the colder one and this is
36:22	exactly what you would expect from
36:24	Charles's law if you put more energy
36:26	into the gas it becomes harder to
36:28	compress and the slope becomes less and
36:31	I can show you this again just on a day
36:34	night one this was the same one taken in
36:36	January I had ended it in the morning on
36:40	a tonight and what you can see here is
36:42	that journaling today the ground-level
36:44	heats up but at night it cools down but
36:48	the rest of the troposphere doesn't
36:51	change temperature this is a quite a
36:53	surprise and I nobody seems to a father
36:56	looking at this until now so these are
37:00	the different models that they had for
37:03	the tropopause that was come up by the
37:06	American atmospheric standards in 1972
37:10	but I just show what the problems is
37:14	with the with the the thing is maybe I
37:20	didn't I skipped the point at this slide
37:24	here you can see that if you heat the
37:26	gas it becomes more compressible except
37:29	in the tropicals where the slope is much
37:32	bigger it's about 50% bigger so this is
37:37	why the ozone hypothesis heating
37:40	hypothesis fails because if it was
37:42	heating the tropopause it will become
37:44	harder to compress the slope should have
37:46	gone the other way
37:47	it shouldn't have got steeper it should
37:49	have got less so because that is not
37:51	what happens that's why the ozone
37:53	hypothesis evening hypothesis fails we
37:56	have to come up with a different
37:57	hypothesis so I'm looking here down at
38:00	all the different things once we
38:01	realized and that the whole zone
38:03	hypothesis is a failure we see that
38:06	there were a lot of other things that we
38:07	could have looked at to let us know that
38:09	as well one is why is this warmer in the
38:12	polar winters in the stratosphere when
38:15	there's no UV light at all it's dark and
38:18	why is it that in these tropical
38:21	tropopause the temperature is colder
38:24	than it is in the other ones because
38:27	resume li there's more UV light so we
38:30	can see all of these things where you
38:33	have problems with the ozone heating
38:35	hypothesis we just have to say it's
38:38	failed it doesn't work we now need to
38:40	come up with something else and we have
38:43	put forward this hypothesis here again
38:45	it's a hypothesis it's a test we've
38:48	subjected it to a lot of tests and it's
38:50	held up so far but not enough for us to
38:52	say this is a theory this explains
38:55	everything because I don't think we've
38:57	done enough testing of it yet but you
38:59	can see if we went back to the ideal gas
39:04	law if you looked at the equation down
39:07	at the bottom if I keep the temperature
39:09	or if I keep the pressure constant and I
39:11	have and I want to change the
39:13	temperature one way I could do was be
39:15	add heat into it which is what was
39:17	proposed and that would cause the
39:18	temperature to go up
39:20	another way we could have done that was
39:22	with we reduced end a number of
39:24	molecules then to keep the equation
39:26	balanced we would have had to rise the
39:29	temperature and so our particular thing
39:31	says that if some of the molecules and
39:33	the implications from our tests so far
39:35	is that it's oxygen if it combines yeah
39:39	if if if it combines to form multimers
39:43	then what happens does that reduces the
39:47	number of molecules and that would mean
39:49	that the temperature would go up as well
39:51	so this does explain why the temperature
39:54	would go up without ozone heating so
39:58	getting back to the ideal gas law what
40:01	you have is what it says is that if a
40:05	gas is in terms of dynamic equilibrium
40:07	that the work component the PV section
40:10	is balanced by the terminal component
40:13	the RT section and you can use this to
40:20	that second line there's P D and P and
40:24	we can calculate T so let's go back here
40:27	to this particular graph and we can see
40:30	then what we have is is this is during
40:33	the evening when the Sun has heated up
40:35	we have our three particular equations
40:38	of state and what we can see is that if
40:41	I reuse the these straight lines
40:43	I can refit the temperature profile and
40:46	you could see then we get again our
40:50	three different regions except the
40:52	changes from one state to the other but
40:54	what we can say now because we have
40:56	three equations of stage one for each of
40:59	the boundaries then each of those layers
41:03	is in thermodynamic equilibrium and this
41:05	turns out to be a very important thing
41:08	when we get on to looking at the carbon
41:10	dioxide behavior so that's just a
41:16	summary there I just want to compare our
41:18	three equations of state model for the
41:21	temperature profile with the manna Bay
41:24	and strickler connect radiative
41:27	convective model which is used by the
41:29	modelers today and I think there's no
41:32	comparison
41:34	you can if you find it hard to see the
41:36	black line data with the two with the
41:38	three different things I'll get onto
41:41	this again a bit later let's go down
41:44	okay so in terms of dynamics just to
41:47	explain what thermodynamics is with the
41:50	invention of the steam engine they were
41:53	trying to come up with ways of improving
41:54	the efficiency so you were turning heat
41:57	from burning fuel into mechanical energy
42:01	and that's why the H is the terminal bit
42:05	of the name and the diamond dynamism are
42:08	the diamond economic or movement end is
42:10	where it got the name thermodynamics so
42:13	it's a study of the relationship between
42:15	mechanical energy and thermal energy and
42:19	so are there a number of term a dynamic
42:22	laws but one of them well-known that
42:24	will be used and mainly here is that
42:26	energy cannot be created or destroyed
42:29	however it can be changed from one form
42:31	to another and it also can be
42:34	transmitted from one place to the other
42:36	you could for example have a hot glass
42:38	of water and move it to another spot and
42:41	still you've changed the energy from one
42:43	side of the room to the other and so on
42:45	what what the first law doesn't tell you
42:48	is the rate at which these processes
42:51	happen so you yeah how fast can you move
42:54	heat from one spot to another or how
42:56	fast does it change from mechanical to
42:59	terminal the first law doesn't tell you
43:02	that instead we have to resort to
43:03	measurements and what we look at is we
43:06	have a number of different mechanisms
43:08	have been proved provided for to say how
43:11	energy can be transmitted from one stage
43:14	to the other and these are the only
43:17	mechanisms that are used in the computer
43:20	models that try to profile the
43:22	atmosphere and what we ask is is this
43:25	enough
43:26	is there something missing and what we
43:28	soon discovered was yes
43:30	there is so up until now people have
43:33	been saying conduction convection
43:35	radiation and acoustic like I'm talking
43:38	to you so I'm sending energy through the
43:42	air but not at the air doesn't actually
43:45	travel to you
43:46	and I'm have we've arranged a simple
43:49	experiment here that should have been
43:51	done years ago
43:52	and we'll point out an overlooked
43:54	mechanism for transferring heat through
43:57	the atmosphere so do you want to do that
44:00	yeah so what we've done is we have here
44:04	a 100 meter a hundred 100-yard sorry
44:12	what we have here is a hundred yard
44:15	piece of tubing going from one end of
44:17	the hall to the other and we have here a
44:21	plunger that's it so if you pull that up
44:24	Ronen yeah if you post that up what you
44:27	can see is within a few seconds the a
44:31	liquid is being sucked up in the tube
44:33	and if you push it back down again the
44:35	liquid has been pushed back down it's
44:37	it's the biggest length longest single
44:40	use plastic tube that we have at the
44:42	moment so see if you just see the red
44:47	bit there just lift it up again you can
44:50	see how rapid the response is now this
44:53	is a very controlled exponent up a bit
44:55	higher Darren yeah this is a very
44:56	controlled experiment this experiment we
44:59	can calculate how all the different
45:01	mechanisms try to contribute to causing
45:06	us to do this work on the underwater in
45:10	the container
45:14	I'm applying here work energy you know
45:18	this is PV I'm moving it and the work
45:23	energy is being transmitted through this
45:25	big long a hundred meter tube which
45:29	contains air and then it's the energy is
45:33	ending up over here the work energy has
45:34	been done at the other end so so this is
45:37	mechanical energy so this is a mechanism
45:40	of transmitting energy mechanically but
45:43	now up until now all the models have
45:45	been worried about transmitting energy
45:47	using terminal processes so we have
45:50	calculated exactly what the energy
45:52	transmission is for each of these
45:54	mechanisms and you can see here that the
45:57	overall rate at which the energy has
45:59	been trans
46:00	mr. down along that tube it's a very
46:01	small narrow tube but if we were to make
46:03	a 1 meter square that will be two and a
46:06	half thousand watts of energy is the
46:09	rate of energy transferred out in our
46:11	data - whereas all the methods just used
46:14	by the way the computer models and the
46:17	theories up until now come to less than
46:20	2 watts so for some bizarre reason
46:22	people have ignored a net energy
46:26	transmission mechanism that's three
46:30	orders of magnitude greater than any of
46:33	the others and we look to see if where
46:36	people would describe this in the
46:38	literature and there wasn't anything we
46:40	had to come up with our own name for it
46:42	which we call perfection another term
46:45	would be you know true mass energy
46:48	transmission mechanical energy
46:50	transmitted so this can go against the
46:53	temperature that water could be colder
46:56	or hotter it wouldn't affect the rate of
46:58	which the mechanical energy is
46:59	transmitted so it's independent of the
47:02	eternal transmission mechanism so in
47:04	other words we could freeze the syringe
47:07	of one end and heat that up to boiling
47:09	water and the energy would still
47:11	mechanical energy would transmit from
47:13	the colder to the Harvard direction yeah
47:15	so just give an explanation for how this
47:19	would happen here we have the famous
47:21	Newton's Cradle and if you apply
47:23	mechanical energy you can see imagine
47:26	that they are the atoms inside in the
47:28	tube you can see you apply the
47:30	mechanical energy of one end it comes
47:32	out the other end but the molecules in
47:33	between don't move they vibrate back and
47:37	forth a bit but they don't move from one
47:39	end of the device to the other and this
47:41	is what we think is happening yes I just
47:43	just show it in that like again what
47:46	we're doing here is this is obviously
47:49	not by air but you can see that like I'm
47:52	applying work energy here and the work
47:56	energy ends up on the other side but the
47:58	the balls in between they're staying
48:01	where they are so the the energy is
48:03	being transmitted from one side to the
48:05	other the interesting thing is that this
48:08	mechanism that's happening in the
48:11	Newton's Cradle can't be described using
48:14	the standard models maybe now we'll have
48:17	take include perfection into it it might
48:20	be possible what we're saying is we
48:24	believe that there are greenhouse gases
48:27	that they adsorbed energy and they emit
48:31	energy and one of the of Einstein's
48:35	famous paper that he published exactly a
48:38	hundred years ago today in 1919 he
48:42	showed that if a gas was in
48:44	thermodynamic equilibrium the rate of
48:47	adsorption by an infrared gas the rate
48:51	of adsorption was equal to the rate of
48:53	emission so in other words if you
48:55	increase the amount of infrared active
48:58	gases in the atmosphere you will
49:00	increase the rate of absorption but at
49:02	the exact same time you will increase
49:05	the rate of emission so if the gas is in
49:09	thermodynamics equilibrium you won't get
49:11	a greenhouse effect it won't store the
49:14	energy and what we have shown by our
49:16	data is yes the gas the air is in terms
49:19	of dynamic equilibrium
49:20	now the climate models have decided to
49:24	ignore Einsteins Einstein when he came
49:28	up with the equation he said the rate of
49:29	adsorption is equal to the rate of
49:31	emission but there were two types of
49:33	emission one was the standard emission
49:35	from a hot body a random one the other
49:37	one is photo induced emission and this
49:40	is the emission that's used for to
49:41	develop lasers and so on but what that
49:44	says is that and what will happen is
49:49	that the infrared active gases will aid
49:52	the transfer of energy from a hot area
49:55	to a cold area but it won't store the
49:58	energy so let me go back to then
50:02	comparing the night and day what I'm
50:06	looking at here is showing you that this
50:10	this is not a a one-off event the one
50:14	that I showed you in January here's
50:16	Tucson for the start of this month the
50:18	first week or so and what I want to draw
50:20	your attention to is that every night
50:23	day the temperature gets heated up and
50:25	every day it cools down at night
50:27	but the Sentra bit the central purpose
50:30	that doesn't go through rapid
50:32	temperature changes so what happens to
50:34	the energy that's stored in the boundary
50:37	layer remember you're talking of about
50:38	two and a half tons of there air per
50:42	square meter it's a lot of energy and
50:44	this is just representing it another way
50:47	the bottom axis is time so this is for
50:50	the entire month of May you can see a
50:52	ground level the temperature zooms up
50:54	and down and by the time you get up to
50:57	700 that day/night variation is gone but
51:01	the lower upper ones they are but they
51:04	they don't have the same day/night
51:07	effect the other thing that I want to
51:10	point out here is that and that that
51:14	energy data what we're told is that
51:17	supposed to be heating up the as you can
51:20	see here I've plotted the humidity the
51:22	amount of water vapor in grams per cubic
51:24	meter that was in the atmosphere that
51:27	you also get from the same radio balloon
51:28	data and if what we are led to believe
51:32	we're true what we should see is that
51:34	energy at night it's going it's
51:37	vanishing he's going somewhere I say
51:40	it's going out to space but if it was
51:41	being trapped by infrared gases then on
51:45	the third slide tree inside for that's
51:48	interesting our side six you have a
51:51	water vapor there in the atmosphere at
51:54	the night so that should be trapping the
51:56	atmosphere what it actually does is it
51:58	cools it in other words the atmosphere
52:00	is behaving exactly as Einstein's law
52:02	predicts and not as the global warming
52:05	things so in other words the infrared
52:08	water vapor is serving to cool the
52:10	atmosphere at night even faster and the
52:14	other thing that you'll see is that the
52:18	that during the day the water vapor
52:21	there that are actually he helped the
52:23	atmosphere it's true because you've got
52:25	the sunlight coming in and that sunlight
52:27	that has been adsorbed and if you looked
52:30	at the spectrum we showed earlier that's
52:32	why we we see the water vapor things so
52:37	we'll go on to our new findings but what
52:40	I can say is
52:41	the data from the weather balloons has
52:44	shown quite categorically there is no
52:47	greenhouse effect increasing greenhouse
52:49	gases will increase the rate of
52:52	adsorption but because the atmosphere is
52:54	internal dynamic equilibrium it also
52:56	increases the rate of emission the next
52:58	net effect is no okay so yeah there's a
53:08	lot of material there and like we'd
53:10	encourage you to to read Stone to look
53:12	at true the those papers that are on
53:15	that opha website and we are that was
53:20	like five years ago that we put put
53:22	those but like we we haven't gone static
53:25	since then and so we continue to it's
53:28	we've also been writing a lot of papers
53:30	with Williams yeah yeah yes but we have
53:32	been carrying out this other work and
53:34	this work is again we would be
53:36	publishing with really shortly yeah yeah
53:38	so we're just writing up at the process
53:41	a a couple of papers I we don't I don't
53:44	know we don't have a whole lot of time
53:45	so we'll just kind of speed through this
53:47	just to give you a flavor of what's
53:49	coming down the tracks
53:51	and just okay on the laps rate um this
53:57	is the under on the left hand side you
54:00	could see the standard atmosphere and
54:03	the lapse rates as you go up in the
54:05	atmosphere according to that and you can
54:07	see it's a very lot of straight lines
54:10	what we've done on the right hand side
54:12	is we've looked at I think there's about
54:14	five million weather balloons used for
54:17	compiling those particular averages I
54:20	going back to the 50s and in some cases
54:23	even further and what we're finding is
54:25	broadly they if you were to try and fit
54:29	the right hand graphs in terms of
54:31	straight lines it's it's it's kind of
54:33	okay but the reality is that the lapse
54:36	rate isn't as straight it's not exactly
54:40	six and a half it's it changes and you
54:43	know the next point is those are
54:44	averages at any given a mandated level
54:50	if you look at the lapse rates there the
54:52	average is of the order of six
54:55	and a half and the troposphere well you
54:57	need to look at histograms so it's not a
55:00	constant and the implications of that
55:04	are well as weather hurry on this one
55:06	okay so what deviations can't remember
55:09	the convective adjustment that was
55:11	assuming that the lapse rate was exactly
55:13	six and a half it's not there's a lot of
55:16	variability and there's an intriguing
55:18	paradox that's implicit in the current
55:21	models what they're doing is they're
55:24	assuming that I would talk about this in
55:26	a second but that each of the layers of
55:29	the atmosphere is Termidor analytically
55:32	isolated from above and be lowered
55:33	that's how the the greenhouse effect is
55:37	supposed to lead to certain parts of the
55:39	atmosphere heating up from the IR
55:41	activity but simultaneously they're
55:44	assuming a constant fixed lapse rate so
55:47	what they're saying is if the
55:49	temperature I J 500 millibars increases
55:53	because of co2 half a degree that is
55:56	simultaneously occurring at the ground
55:59	so you in other words that it's there
56:03	turbo dynamically connected so you can't
56:06	you know they want to eat their cake and
56:09	still have it I hear you wants you to
56:13	talk about this one yeah yeah just
56:15	quickly okay so so this is taken in
56:20	Germany the reason we use that was that
56:22	Germany has a very good radio song
56:26	program they emit for send up for every
56:30	day and so we have twice as much data on
56:33	any one day again you can see the exact
56:35	same phenomena the day/night thing is is
56:38	but now it has four points in it by the
56:41	time you get up to 850 it's almost gone
56:44	and you can't see any trace of it then
56:46	but here is the interesting thing if you
56:48	look between the four hundred they well
56:52	if you look at the five hundred and two
56:56	450 what are the four hundred one you
56:58	see their synchronization there between
57:00	them it's not a 24-hour synchronization
57:04	but it's some of the order of four three
57:07	or four days but the interesting
57:09	is that if you look at the 201 above the
57:12	strata at the start started stratosphere
57:15	that's an T synchronized it's going in
57:17	the opposite direction so what it is
57:19	happening is whatever's causing this
57:21	change in the compressibility of the gas
57:26	whether it's our multimeric hypothesis
57:28	or something else if the area that come
57:31	compressed jumps way down which is what
57:34	we saw from the video then that would
57:37	mean that we're decreasing we would be
57:40	making a sort of partial vacuum and that
57:42	we would be sucking up the air from down
57:44	below I'm pulling the air from the
57:47	stratosphere down now if you pull air
57:49	upwards it gets colder and if you pull
57:52	it down it gets warmer and that's why we
57:55	think that you have this anti
57:57	synchronized raishin above this stratify
58:00	the tropopause it's going in one
58:03	direction it's going down or up and it's
58:06	doing the alterations so what Michael is
58:08	describing by the correlations and anti
58:10	correlations we weave what we're doing
58:13	here is what we find is the temperature
58:16	at which that phase changed that's the
58:19	the point of intersection between those
58:22	two lines if you recall of the molar
58:23	density pressure plots the point of
58:26	intersection if we measure the
58:27	temperature there we find that that
58:29	temperature goes up and down up and down
58:31	if you look at the ground temperature
58:33	that goes up and down and what we're
58:35	finding is if you take for a given time
58:38	of the day two we can to remove the
58:41	day/night effect you can look and see
58:45	how is the temperatures at each of the
58:47	mandated levels correlated to the ground
58:51	temperature TG and the temperature of
58:54	the phase change TP and we're looking at
58:59	just for one zone for this preview here
59:02	which is 470 stations by 10 million
59:06	balloons over a 30-year period from 1989
59:10	to 2018
59:11	this is just for January we're just
59:13	showing you what we find is that the
59:16	temperature changes at ground are quite
59:20	correlated to the changes as you go from
59:23	the album
59:23	is fear that's the one on the left but
59:26	she can see that it rapidly falls off
59:28	and that up near the stratosphere it
59:31	actually comes slightly anti-correlated
59:33	but there's almost no correlation if
59:35	however we look at the phase change the
59:38	TP this is the point of intersection if
59:41	we look at a temperature of that dashed
59:44	black line in the video Michael was
59:46	showing you um that correlates far
59:49	better with the bulk of the atmosphere
59:51	like we're talking of seventy percent
59:52	its anti-correlated in the troposphere
59:55	uncorrelated above the troposphere and I
60:00	what you do or squared you can see this
60:04	and I just want to stress sorry I just
60:06	want to stress that graph on the right
60:09	nobody has been looking at this check
60:12	this intersection of molar density plots
60:15	before so this is a new result
60:17	completely near nobody is looking at it
60:20	it's it's and that seems to be the one
60:23	that seems to explain everything best
60:25	just what we think for the climate
60:29	models like my background is in computer
60:31	modeling that was my PhD I'm not a
60:34	critic of computer models as so they're
60:37	very useful to but they should be
60:40	continually compared with data and
60:42	observations so you know there is a
60:45	nobody has been looking at this they've
60:48	just been assuming the models are the
60:50	best we've got and we should be checking
60:54	at experiments and so um there are the
60:58	different improvements we believe should
61:00	be made I don't know if there's time for
61:03	questions we have another three minutes
61:05	before the clock actually heats so eight
61:08	minutes eight minutes okay oh yeah with
61:12	questions yeah
61:21	I'm a retired operational weather guy I
61:24	used to be the weather unit commander
61:25	here four years ago at davis-monthan and
61:28	now also a sail plane pilot so all the
61:32	stuff that you're saying makes perfect
61:33	sense like I say I come to this from an
61:37	operational weather point of view we
61:42	know that the atmosphere is transparent
61:46	to visible radiation yes and that's what
61:49	you're showing yes and where there are
61:52	no greenhouse gases it's travel
61:54	transparent to the infrared radiation as
61:57	well yeah oh yeah yeah but but another
62:02	thing I want to point out is that if you
62:04	look at the newspapers the newspapers
62:07	have a lot of information if only the
62:10	people critiquing this would pay
62:13	attention one example was about a year
62:17	and a half ago in Siberia it got as cold
62:20	as it ever gets in the northern
62:23	hemisphere it was in USA USA today well
62:27	if it's as cold as it ever has been in
62:30	the northern hemisphere where's the
62:32	trapped Heat yeah also you go up to
62:35	Canada you know Edmonton breaks the the
62:40	cold temperature by 12 Celsius 20
62:44	Fahrenheit not just Edmonton but a
62:47	hundred kilometers around it where's the
62:49	trapped heat obviously it doesn't exist
62:51	that's all I want to say thank you
62:52	George your talk how we agree with you
62:56	on your slide summary of prevention
63:00	experiment yeah the term that overwhelms
63:03	that discussion is the acoustic
63:06	transmission 1.4 watts per meter squared
63:10	I've lost on acoustic transmission okay
63:13	acoustic transmission is how you
63:15	communicated with me in other words when
63:18	you moved your tongue you created
63:20	vibrations in the air which was
63:22	mechanical energy which then came and
63:24	vibrated my ear so that's what acoustic
63:27	transmission is just sound sound waves
63:31	and it so happens that that particular
63:32	experiment we've devised there is a low
63:37	pass filter so anything with a frequency
63:39	of less than one Hertz wouldn't be able
63:42	to pass through it and so what we're
63:44	saying is the acoustic energy can't get
63:47	through that but I'd like to just add
63:49	just a point which we discuss in the in
63:52	the papers referring to that I think
63:54	it's the third paper on that open your j
63:56	website but you can think of you have AC
64:00	and DC in like an electric city you have
64:04	this alternating current and then you
64:06	have a DC based signal and so we could
64:11	think of because acoustic energy or
64:13	sound is a wave format you could think
64:16	of it as honesty akuti a c component of
64:21	of mechanical energy transmission but
64:25	what world of describing here is the DC
64:28	component of mechanical energy
64:30	transmission so while it is obviously
64:33	sound has been studied very heavily so
64:37	everyone is very familiar of sound as
64:39	Atlantic in a sum of transmission we're
64:41	actually saying is and this is well
64:43	known to aircraft engineers and I just
64:45	think there's a few of them around here
64:47	what actually happens is that if an
64:51	airplane is traveling at less than a
64:53	tenth of the speed of sound then the air
64:55	is best treated as if it's not
64:57	compressible as if it's a non
65:00	compressible material and what that
65:03	means is it acts like a rigid rod so you
65:06	could look upon this big long tube of
65:08	air because it's taking its traveling at
65:10	about 34 meters per second less than the
65:13	speed of sound or less than 10% so it's
65:16	like as if it's a long rigid rod and you
65:19	just push it at one end and it sticks
65:21	out the other end and we after you do
65:25	record I will around the record yeah
65:27	heard of the giant Large Hadron Collider
65:34	well we have called this here is the
65:37	Large Hadron Collider because of what
65:40	it's doing to all those beautiful models
65:42	I got one one last question here simple
65:47	energy energy transfer and in my I'm a
65:52	geophysicist and one of the things that
65:54	occurs to me is is that we have a lot of
65:56	solar interaction with our with earth
65:59	and energy being transmitted from our
66:02	borealis and and-and-and the Aurora's
66:06	that we see and when we wonder if
66:08	there's at those high altitudes whether
66:11	and whether any of that energy impacts
66:13	our gases in the atmosphere well in
66:17	those diagrams that we showed you there
66:19	where the phase change was moving up and
66:23	down and we found that when you dampened
66:25	out the day-night thing you were still
66:27	getting these fluctuations what causes
66:30	that we don't know yet that's still an
66:33	open question there are the reason it's
66:38	an open question there's nobody even
66:39	thought to ask it until now