A new study dispenses with mere correlation to show causality. Because correlation has been badly misused by scientists for decades to infer causality modern statisticians are increasingly down on mere correlation. This study uses new, sophisticated, statistical techniques to investigate whether recent global climate change is driven by shortwave or longwave radiation changes.
The man-made climate change conjecture says that human emissions of CO2 and other so-called greenhouse gases cause a long-term decline in infrared radiation emitted from earth because greenhouse gases "trap" infrared radiation leading to global warming. The study, here, does not show that. It shows recent climate changes are mainly driven by shortwave radiation changes (due to solar output and cloud changes). This increased by about 3 W/m² since 1984.
... we study the causality of those changes using Transfer Entropy ... showing that the changes are mainly driven by the variations in shortwave radiation. The observed behaviour of climatic complexity could be explained by the changes in cloud amount ...
Delgado-Bonal, Marshak, Yang, Holdaway. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-57917-8
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