Monday, 2 November 2015

Germany will miss its 2020 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target.

Today, the Guardian tell us:

While Britain visualises a nuclear future, Angela Merkel’s aim of replacing it with renewables by 2022 is well under way
it being nuclear power

What is meant here by replacing nuclear power with renewables? One can't replace dispatchable and baseload nuclear power with intermittent renewable energy. One can't replace very low greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting nuclear power with higher emitting renewable energy. The LCA figure for nuclear power = 14. The LCA for wind and solar = 100 (when inefficiencies in fossil fuel backup power is accounted for).

Germany's Energiewende has made their GHG emissions worse. The 6 years 2009 to 2014 (inclusive) saw no reduction in German greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. German GHG emissions in 2009 = 912 Mt CO2eq. The same in 2014. See: Germany’s 2020 greenhouse gas target is no longer feasible. These 6 years saw the greatest increase in renewable energy (wind and solar) for any country in Europe. So according to the spin-masters of renewable energy over at the Guardian, there should've been a big reduction in emissions. Post-Fukushima also saw the closure of half of Germany's nuclear power plants (a reduction from 25% of its electricity in 2010 to 17% today).

In 2007 Germany set itself the target of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent by 2020 compared with 1990. In 1990 there were emissions of around 1250 million tonnes CO2 equivalent; the target for 2020 is therefore 750 million tonnes. According to the latest estimates, Germany emitted around 950 million tonnes CO2 equivalent in 2013. This equates to a reduction of 23.8 percent ...the programme can bring about a total reduction of 82 million tonnes
-- Climate Action Programme 2020

Germany admits it will not meet its 2020 target. The forecast is 80 Mt CO2eq off : a reduction of 33.6%, compared with the 40% target. By 2022, they will be in a worse position still. All this leads me to understand that emissions reductions are not the real goal of renewable energy and anti-nuclear power campaigners.

The eurostat figures paint an even less optimistic picture: Greenhouse gas emissions intensity of energy consumption

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