Sunday, 31 March 2019

Climate change is a myth

I think the best argument, distilled to its essence, explaining the myth of climate change, caused by small changes in carbon dioxide, is this:

The self-styled “climate consensus” define themselves as the only legitimate voice in climate science. They say:

  • Climate change means man-made change, because 90% of modern climate change is man-made.
  • This climate change is overwhelmingly due to increasing emissions of greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide. Made by burning fossil fuel.
  • This greenhouse gas warms earth because it causes less outgoing longwave radiation, OLR, to be emitted to space, so warming earth due to the consequent energy imbalance; because incoming solar warming is near constant.
  • There is only one basic model used by them to calculate radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases. This model defines them as the climate consensus.

In the real world, satellites show:

  • More OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) leaving our planet, over time, in the last 33 years. By a big margin too, an extra 2W/m² compared to 1985.
  • Satellite data diametrically contradicts the “climate consensus” greenhouse gas model; which explains how greenhouse gases warm the climate.

It follows that either the satellites are wrong, or the self-styled “climate consensus” are wrong.

References (both open access):

1. The basic greenhouse gas warming explanation: Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, and K. von Schuckmann, 2011: Earth’s energy imbalance and implications. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 13421-13449, doi:10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011.

2. Satellite data: Steven Dewitte and Nicolas Clerbaux, Decadal Changes of Earth’s Outgoing Longwave Radiation; Remote Sens. 2018, 10(10), 1539; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10101539

Friday, 8 March 2019

When 'the data doesn’t matter', what can you 'believe in'?

Steve O :
I’m trying to get my arms around what this group believes regarding the MWP.
Chris Folland:
“The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models.”

They 'believe in' their GHGE models.

I'm interested in why they 'believe in' GHGE equations/models, derived from Arrhenius' 19th century model[1]. Why is so little in their models is verified against the real world?[5] Why do they scorn modern work done on carbon dioxide absorption and emittance spectra (studies: 1985, 2005, 2013, 2014)[2,3,6,7]? Why has no one done an experiment since 1900 (Knut Angstrom, who failed to show it) to verify this GHGE 'warming the surface'? Why they think downwelling LWIR (due to more CO2 warms oceans, when, they otherwise agree, that such D-LWIR penetrates mere micrometres into the ocean to have a tiny effect warming the surface skin?

When I tell them their GHGE hypothesis says earth warms because less OLR is emitted to space, they rationalize away real world data showing a 2W/m² increase (4 complete data sets) in OLR emitted to space since 1985[4]. Real world doing the opposite of their models.

It's nearly always the same pattern with bad science: cherry pick, model, twist statistics. Actual data fraud is rare. The driving mechanism is groupthink, not conscious fraud. They even think changing past temperatures to delete 1910 - 1940 warming is 'science'. Much like they think Mann-derived MWP-elimination studies are science. Alarmists are just hacks doing the UN's bidding; not good scientists. If politicians want anti-scientist alarmists in charge of climate science; all we can do is change the politicians.

  1. Arrhenius, S 1896, ‘On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground’, Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science, vol. 41, no. 5, pp. 237-276.
  2. Barrett, J 1985, ‘Paper on Spectra of Carbon Dioxide’, Villach Conference, Austria, October 6-19.
  3. Barrett, J 2005, ‘Greenhouse molecules, their spectra and function in the atmosphere’, Energy & Environment, vol. 16, no. 6. DOI: 10.1260/095830505775221542
  4. Dewitte, S. & Clerbaux, N. Decadal Changes of Earth’s Outgoing Longwave Radiation, 25 Sept 2018. Remote Sensing 2018, 10(10), 1539; DOI: 10.3390/rs10101539
  5. Kawamura, Y 2016, ‘Measurement system for the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in a laboratory scale’, Review of Scientific Instruments, vol. 87, no. 1. DOI: 10.1063/1.4939483
  6. Laubereau, A & Iglev H 2013, ‘On the direct impact of the CO2 concentration rise to the global warming’, EPL, vol. 104, no. 2. DOI: 10.1209/0295-5075/104/29001
  7. Lightfoot, HD & Mamer, OA 2014, ‘Calculation of Atmospheric Radiative Forcing (Warming Effect) Of Carbon Dioxide at any Concentration Energy & Environment’, Energy & Environment, vol. 25, no. 8, pp. 1439-1454. DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.25.8.1439

Monday, 4 February 2019

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past

From the Independent. Almost 20 years ago. Their famous and now censored article. It seems they got tired of people taking the piss out of them. They pulled it off their website. The wayback machine still has it.


Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past

By Charles Onians
Monday, 20 March 2000

Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.

Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain's culture, as warmer winters - which scientists are attributing to global climate change - produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.

The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant snowfall in much of lowland Britain, and December brought only moderate snowfall in the South-east. It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years: in the south of England, for instance, from 1970 to 1995 snow and sleet fell for an average of 3.7 days, while from 1988 to 1995 the average was 0.7 days. London's last substantial snowfall was in February 1991.

Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. Average temperatures in Britain were nearly 0.6°C higher in the Nineties than in 1960-90, and it is estimated that they will increase by 0.2C every decade over the coming century. Eight of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the Nineties.

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.

The effects of snow-free winter in Britain are already becoming apparent. This year, for the first time ever, Hamleys, Britain's biggest toyshop, had no sledges on display in its Regent Street store. "It was a bit of a first," a spokesperson said.

Fen skating, once a popular sport on the fields of East Anglia, now takes place on indoor artificial rinks. Malcolm Robinson, of the Fenland Indoor Speed Skating Club in Peterborough, says they have not skated outside since 1997. "As a boy, I can remember being on ice most winters. Now it's few and far between," he said.

Michael Jeacock, a Cambridgeshire local historian, added that a generation was growing up "without experiencing one of the greatest joys and privileges of living in this part of the world - open-air skating".

Warmer winters have significant environmental and economic implications, and a wide range of research indicates that pests and plant diseases, usually killed back by sharp frosts, are likely to flourish. But very little research has been done on the cultural implications of climate change - into the possibility, for example, that our notion of Christmas might have to shift.

Professor Jarich Oosten, an anthropologist at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands, says that even if we no longer see snow, it will remain culturally important.

"We don't really have wolves in Europe any more, but they are still an important part of our culture and everyone knows what they look like," he said.

David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes - or eventually "feel" virtual cold.

Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. "We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time," he said.

The chances are certainly now stacked against the sortof heavy snowfall in cities that inspired Impressionist painters, such as Sisley, and the 19th century poet laureate Robert Bridges, who wrote in "London Snow" of it, "stealthily and perpetually settling and loosely lying".

Not any more, it seems.

Stop Pseudoscience?

This as a response to a recommended book on Phlosophy of Science. We need a whole series of blogs on this topic as even a conservative esti...