Sunday, 7 October 2018

"reads like someone outside their area of expertise wrote it"

Reblog of Twitter thread by: Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com | @RyanMaue

Tropical storm expert Ryan Maue said the new IPCC report section on tropical storms "reads like someone outside their area of expertise wrote it"


The Tropical Cyclones section in Chapter 3 of the IPCC 1.5°C Special Report is poorly written & referenced -- reads like someone outside their area of expertise wrote it ... including out of date 15-year old studies? This isn't 2005.

Don't waste printer paper or ink on the @IPCC_CH 1.5°C report for tropical cyclones. Reference this page ---> https://t.co/I908S7hCgb which is continually updated by experts.

1) Numerous studies have not reported a decrease in the number of global tropical cyclones or accumulated cyclone energy.

I'd know because I wrote the last papers cited in IPCC SREX that say otherwise.

The statement is just false -- makes no sense w/cited references. Bizarre.

2) This paragraph is awful -- fails to provide the consensus reached already in the previous IPCC AR5 and SREX and instead goes back to papers from 10-15 years ago -- long outdated and deprecated.

3) Tropical Cyclones in next 10-40 years? Same number globally -- probably a few more intense by percentage of total. A bit wetter near the eye ... and when making landfall.

That's it.

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