Friday 27 November 2020

J Curry - Week in science 122

Reblog: Judith Curry science review.. I commented out a lot of these because when they're of no interest, have been said before, especially when they're not hard science. After skipping through the open access, I'll get to the pay-wall papers one by one - even if they don't interest me - because they interest Judith Curry - who is an influential person.

My intention is to copy the links worth reading, so I can comment on them. I'll look at the open access papers first.


by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye these past 10 (!) weeks

Politics-free thread, please!

Climate science

  • How changing content of clouds could influence climate change [link]

    Nonesense. A discussion of models entirely divorced from science. Contains no discussion of testing, validation nor falsification. A few of the original links from J Curry were also like that. One of the reasons I commented some of them out

  • Rebuttal of recent Mann paper: Multidecadal and Interdecadal climate oscillations: absence of evidence is not evidence of absence [link]
  • Antarctic ice dynamics amplified by Northern Hemisphere sea-level forcing [link]
  • Status and outlook for the climate change scenario framework [link]
  • Forcing of western tropical Sought Atlantic sea surface temperate across three glacial-interglacial cycles [link]
  • Earth greening mitigates surface warming by enhancing the efficiency in heat and water transfer (i.e., aerodynamic resistance). advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/47/e

    According to a model, ... Greening, due to increased CO2, cools the climate ...

    This is another model: untested, non-validated. Probably untestable.

  • A very strong stratospheric polar vortex and other record-breaking phenomena made the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2019–2020 one of extremes. [link]

    Exceptionally strong stratospheric polar vortex of winter 2019–2020 enabled severe ozone depletion, and likely also contributed to unusual warmth at the surface across the Northern Hemisphere, such as Siberia. I accept their claim regarding Ozone. But the other claim? I only looked at the abstract so far.

  • Oreskes:Severe weather event attribution: Why values won’t go away [link]
  • Unraveling glacial hydroclimate in the Indo-Pacific warm pool [link]
  • Interannual variability in the North America carbon cycle [link]

    Only really of interest to climatologists - in that it could be useful to scale this for the whole plantet.

  • Anthropogenic stresses on the worlds big rivers [link]
  • Geothermal heat persistently warms the ocean’s bottom ~2000 m by 0.3-0.5°C via seafloor vents. With horizontal circulation heat accumulates over time. The abyssal ocean was 6-10°C warmer 9k yrs ago and still much warmer 1k yrs ago. [link]
  • Combining modern and paleoceanographic perspectives on ocean heat uptake [link]
  • Coherent stream flow variability in Monsoon Asia over the past eight centuries links to oceanic drivers [link]
  • Moist heat stress extremes in India enhanced by irrigation [link]

    To say I found this extremely tendentious is an understatement.

  • Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient [link]
  • Inherent uncertainty disguises attribution of reduced atmospheric CO2 growth to CO2 emission reduction [link]
  • Decadal and multi-decadal natural variability in European temperatures [link]

    Many climate papers begin by paying homage to man-made climate change as the price authors must pay for publication. None of that here. These guys are naturalists. They begin their article saying they're looking at natural variability, AKA everything which is not 'man-made'

    European monthly temperatures undergo strong fluctuations from one year to the other. The variability is controlled by natural processes such as Atlantic cycles, changes in solar activity, volcanic eruptions, unforcedinternal atmospheric variability, as well as anthropogenic factors.

    So they added 'as well as anthropogenic factors'. But just to get published. They didn't really mean it. So they are deniers. Everyone studying natural variability and the sun is a denier, or shill anyhow - by climate scare-mongering definitions.

    </SNARK>

    This paper more or less demands to be read in full. Especially as we just entered a grand solar minimum for the next 33 years. I'm puzzled by the correlations and anti-correlations sitting side by side!

  • No net warming in Sweden over the last 210 years [link]

    No net warming in Sweden over the last 210 years. They will not actually say that!, and their paper shows a new dendroclimatology technique - so is nothing to do with Sweden nor warming, nor not-warming! Yet that's the important byte to take for the climate war: 'catastrophic global warming?', definitely not in Sweden. Ho, ho.: it's supposed to be most noticeable closes to the poles (where Sweden is), at night and during winters.

  • East Antartica has cooled substantially since 1986 [link]
  • Koutsoyiannis:  Atmospheric temperature and CO2: hen-or-egg causality? [link]
  • Oligocene much warmer than previously thought; this is difficult to explain & has implications for ice sheet stability. [link]
  • Water on Mars: discovery of three buried lakes [link]
  • “This is why hurricanes are bigger and longer-lasting and more intense than before.” New study shows that ocean stratification is increasing. [link]
  • New synthesis article on ocean acidification & changing seawater chemistry from rising CO2 and the impacts on biological organisms, marine ecosystems, people, fisheries & aquaculture annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.114
  • New study finds the modulation of cloud cover that drives decadal- and century-scale climate changes is thought to be either driven by internal variability or (more likely) by interplanetary factors operating within a 60-year cycle. [link] …

Technology, impacts and policy

  • Michael Kelly: Warming is not the only threat [link]
  • Michael Kelly:  Until we get a proper roadmap, Net Zero is a goal without a plan [link]
  • Misconceptions of global catastrophe [link]
  • Approximate calculations of the net economic impact of global warming mitigation targets under heightened damage estimates.  The cure is worse than the disease? [link]
  • Compact nuclear fusion reactor is very likely to work [link]
  • BTI:  How to stop the wildfires [link]
  • Extreme weather and marriage among girls and women in Bangladesh [link]
  • America needs a modern electric grid [link]
  • Do we focus too much on IAMs & scenarios? Do alternative methods need a more prominent role? [link]
  • “The UN Secretary General António Guterres’s call for India to give up coal immediately and reduce emissions by 45% by 2030 is a call to de-industrialise the country and abandon the population to a permanent low-development trap” [link]
  • The invisible elephant in the room with a Green New Deal is the staggering quantity of stuff that needs to be mined in order to build all the green machines, and where that mining and processing happens. dailycaller.com/2020/10/27/gre
  • Michael Pollan: The sickness in our food supply [link]
  • Room-temperature superconductivity [link]
  • Pielke Jr:  Global CO2 emissions are on the brink of a long plateau [link]
  • Re-imagining the Colorado River by exploring extreme events [link]
  • Plan for climate solutions takes Georgia-specific approach [link]
  • G20 countries projected to miss 1.5C targets by wide margin [link]
  • Maybe the narrative that dense cities are better for the environment may be off. Here’s new research from Australia. newgeography.com/content/006840

About science and scientists

  • Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto [link]

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