Saturday 1 September 2018

Urban heat island effect

The urban heat island effect refers to the tendency of urban temperatures to be much higher than rural temperatures. The extra warmth is due to:

  • more heat created by people
  • landscape changes. For example roads and concrete surfaces absorb more solar heat
  • less evaporative cooling. There's less vegetation and water evaporation in built-up areas. Water evaporation is one of the major causes of earth surface cooling.

Is the global warming scare due to misread thermometers?

  • Actual measurements of the best rural ground stations, in USA, show no warming trend over the past 13 years, since the North American 'climate reference network' was built.

    When we look at average surface temperature but exclude urban data we get something like this:

    The chart above shows data from the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN). This is a network of best practice surface stations from 114 sites, carefully sited to suffer no bias from an urban heat island effect. USCRN use the latest, highest quality measuring instruments. These are the most scientific, accurate, precise, direct, ground-level measurements made of temperature anywhere. USCRN shows no warming. The network is only 13 years old, and is only in the USA. Climate alarmists mostly pretend this network does not exist. They don't quote it.

  • The chart below shows: Annual-mean temperature in California, averaged over population centers exceeding 1,000,000 (upper) & of less than 100,000 (lower). Superimposed is the record of Global Mean Temperature (GMT) from the network of surface stations (dotted). The warming trend is clearly far higher in densely populated areas. Source: Goodridge, J, 1996: Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 77, 1588–1589.
  • The 3rd chart is a Histogram of observed temperature trend over California, as a function of population. This chart implies near zero warming in lightly populated areas. Source: Robinson, A, Balliunas, S, Soon, W, and Z Robinson, 1998: Med Sent, 3, 171–178.
  • The UHI effect got worse over time. Paradoxically, since we began worrying about 'global warming' scientists took lower quality surface readings. They included a higher proportion of stations corrupted by UHI effect. In 1990s thousands of rural surface weather stations were closed. Leaving a strong bias with urban weather stations.
  • For 20 years, climate scientists have been making massive adjustments to surface temperatures. They justify these adjustments by claiming to be fixing the corruption introduced by UHI! Adjustments are massive in both the number of adjustments and the size of those adjustments. Here is an example from Iceland. This seems strange to me that climate scientists should be so reliant on temperatures measured at surface stations. Because:
    • most are so unreliable. Temperature measurements are usually just the maximum and minimum temperature recorded per day. So no 'average' daily temperature is never measured. Error bounds are usually around +/- 2C
    • the excuse for closing so many surface stations in the 1990s was that, in future, scientists would rely on (more accurate and precise) satellite measurements. Satellites give:
      1. far both more accurate,
      2. more precise, measurements
      3. made at far more locations (at least ten times more),
      4. a much better picture of isolated areas (which we would otherwise hardly know about).
      5. Satellites eliminate the bias introduced by relying on stations corrupted by the urban heat island effect.
      To summarise: Satellites allow scientists to:
      1. avoid an urban heat island effect biasing temperatures
      2. not interpolate (invent data) for isolated areas where they don't take surface station readings
      3. take more accurate and precise readings
      4. avoid the issue of broken and malfunctioning surface stations
      5. obtain far more readings
      Why did climate scientists continue to use the obsolete ground surface measurements?, and make such a big deal of them in the media. Satellite readings are available for the past 40 years? It seems to me, unscientific to claim that adjusted surface readings, containing massive amounts of interpolated data are more reliable than Satellite readings. But that's what they say. Scientists complain that the Satellite record is corrupted by cloud and atmospheric effects. That is true. Yet what of the massive adjustments they make to the surface record. Today scientists interpolate (make up) nearly half the data they use, and adjust some of the rest.
  • The last 11,000 years show no remarkable recent climate warming.

    One might think that scientists are able to compare the effect of errors introduced by relying on either 1) satellites, or 2) existing ground stations. I never see them quote these errors to give any measure of reliability, or any measure to compare the quality of satellite against ground station measurements. They seem to have no agreed method to calculate the degree of error. So their choice of one over the other (their preference for massively adjusted ground station data) is a subjective judgement.

    Today's climate scientists are not behaving as real scientists.

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